Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman

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How happy are you with your life these days? What is my mood right now? How popular is the president right now? How popular will the president be six months from now? How should financial advisers who prey on the elderly be punished? How much anger do I feel when I think of financial predators? This woman is running for the primary. How far will she go in politics? Does this woman look like a political winner? Table 1 The mental shotgun makes it easy to generate quick answers to difficult questions without imposing much hard work on your lazy System 2. The right-hand counterpart of each of the left-hand questions is very likely to be evoked and very easily answered. Your feelings about dolphins and financial crooks, your current mood, your impressions of the political skill of the primary candidate, or the current standing of the president will readily come to mind. The heuristic questions provide an off-the-shelf answer to each of the difficult target questions. Something is still missing from this story: the answers need to be fitted to the original questions. For example, my feelings about dying dolphins must be expressed in dollars.
Another capability of System 1, intensity matching, is available to solve that problem. Recall that both feelings and contribution dollars are intensity scales. I can feel more or less strongly about dolphins and there is a contribution that matches the intensity of my feelings. The dollar amount that will come to my mind is the matching amount. Similar intensity matches are possible for all the questions. For example, the political skills of a candidate can range from pathetic to extraordinarily impressive, and the scale of political success can range from the low of “She will be defeated in the primary” to a high of “She will someday be president of the United States.” The automatic processes of the mental shotgun and intensity matching often make available one or more answers to easy questions that could be mapped onto the target question. On some occasions, substitution will occur and a heuristic answer will be endorsed by System 2. Of course, System 2 has the opportunity to reject this intuitive answer, or to modify it by incorporating other information. However, a lazy System 2 often follows the path of least effort and endorses a heuristic answer without much scrutiny of whether it is truly appropriate. You will not be stumped, you will not have to work very her р wheard, and you may not even notice that you did not answer the question you were asked. Furthermore, you may not realize that the target question was difficult, because an intuitive answer to it came readily to mind. The 3-D Heuristic Have a look at the picture of the three men and answer the question that follows.
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A 1 E=mc 2 This eBook is provided b
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Contents Introduction Part I. Two S
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Part V. Two Selves 35. Two Selves 3
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So this is my aim for watercooler c
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participants in our experiments ign
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easy to identify a small change in
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From what we know about the accurac
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agents in classical economics and i
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Psychologists have been intensely i
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Brace for the starter gun in a race
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event is detected that violates the
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attention on a boring book, when we
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You have been invited to think of t
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Start beating a steady rhythm (or b
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main finding was that the ability t
Page 32 and 33: Another is the prefrontal area of t
Page 34 and 35: Accelerating beyond my strolling sp
Page 36 and 37: The list of indications of depletio
Page 38 and 39: answer have missed an obvious socia
Page 40 and 41: In one of the most famous experimen
Page 42 and 43: “Unfortunately, she tends to say
Page 44 and 45: notion that we have limited access
Page 46 and 47: Studies of priming effects have yie
Page 48 and 49: ox changed significantly. The poste
Page 50 and 51: strain is affected by both the curr
Page 52 and 53: legs in packages of four. System 2
Page 54 and 55: message want to stay away from anyt
Page 56 and 57: kadirga, saricik, biwonjni, nansoma
Page 58 and 59: These findings add to the growing e
Page 60 and 61: of circumstances, events, actions,
Page 62 and 63: understand that I mean a normal tab
Page 64 and 65: attributions: infants under one yea
Page 66 and 67: ut the middle items in both display
Page 68 and 69: Real evidence of generosity is miss
Page 70 and 71: This procedure makes good use of th
Page 72 and 73: WY SIATI to help explain a long and
Page 74 and 75: constantly evaluated as good or bad
Page 76 and 77: For another example, consider the q
Page 78 and 79: What level of income in your profes
Page 80 and 81: “The punishment won’t feel just
Page 84 and 85: Figure 9 As printed on the page, is
Page 86 and 87: The results this time were complete
Page 88 and 89: “We are using last year’s perfo
Page 90 and 91: A study of the incidence of kidney
Page 92 and 93: Large samples are more precise than
Page 94 and 95: The message about the poll contains
Page 96 and 97: interviewing of the pilots should s
Page 98 and 99: “The sample of observations is to
Page 100 and 101: parent’s demand that it be played
Page 102 and 103: operation of System 1. Although I d
Page 104 and 105: Uses and Abuses of Anchors By now y
Page 106 and 107: “The firm we want to acquire sent
Page 108 and 109: A dramatic event temporarily increa
Page 110 and 111: instructed to contract the zygomati
Page 112 and 113: found it difficult to find eight in
Page 114 and 115: The most influential studies of ava
Page 116 and 117: Differences between experts and the
Page 118 and 119: actual damage to health appear not
Page 120 and 121: usiness administration computer sci
Page 122 and 123: You probably ranked computer scienc
Page 124 and 125: epresentativeness when we judge the
Page 126 and 127: laziness. Some people ignore base r
Page 128 and 129: “They keep making the same mistak
Page 130 and 131: In the language of this book, we ha
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Which alternative is more probable?
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Björn Borg was the dominant tennis
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information was laid out in front o
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85% of the cabs in the city are Gre
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Interest in cycling is widespread i
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not draw from base-rate information
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chosen another surprising psycholog
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officer in the room to turn his bac
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Now let us go against the time arro
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piano playing = age + weekly hours
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Our difficulties with the concept o
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“Perhaps his second interview was
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Intensity matching yields predictio
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their usual mission, which was to e
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A Defense of Extreme Predictions? I
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Perhaps the most valuable contribut
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Overconfidence The Illusion of Unde
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sentence about an intuition that tu
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Although hindsight and the outcome
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The basic message of Built to Last
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someone’s shoulders and jump acro
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In 1984, Amos and I and our friend
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Some years ago I had an unusual opp
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The idea that the future is unpredi
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Short-term trends can be forecast,
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unpredictability. We describe them
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the values to make them comparable
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Even after being informed that the
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only task was to elicit relevant fa
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Professional controversies bring ou
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Klein elaborated this description i
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Acquiring expertise in chess is har
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Feedback and Practice Some regulari
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It is difficult to reconstruct what
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within the optimistic consensus of
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about an individual case rarely fee
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The diagnosis of and the remedy for
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Seymour’s statistical summary. If
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The evidence suggests that an optim
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had failed. A common thread of bold
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The consequence of competition negl
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one’s self-image. In essence, the
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ut I can still recite its first sen
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most significant work we ever did,
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The expected value of the gamble an
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how the sure outcome differs from t
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for so long to see the obvious. Sti
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problem 4. Obviously, other example
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Loss Aversion Many of the options w
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Figure 10 shows an abrupt change in
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and the failure to acknowledge them
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Students learn in introductory econ
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Loss aversion implies only that cho
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would share a Nobel Prize many year
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The fundamental ideas of prospect t
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“He is a miser, and treats any do
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Some distinctions between good and
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Many of the messages that negotiato
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wage cut. The replacement worker ha
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The Fourfold Pattern Whenever you f
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probability leads to inconsistencie
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Table 4 You can see that the decisi
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Figure 13 The top row in each cel
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time to cut one’s losses. This is
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“We never let our vacations hang
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People overestimate the probabiliti
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depend only on probability, not on
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The new hypothesis is that there wi
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another: “1,000 Americans will di
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experiments on choice from experien
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combining the two decision problems
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You can see in the display that the
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detection. As expected, broad frami
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dollar, money is a proxy for points
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provide a strong incentive: realizi
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Regret is not the same as blame. Ot
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vaccine that is effective only befo
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with long-term consequences. Hindsi
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are absent, and of course WYSIATI.
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“How tall is John?” If John is
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the threat of skin cancer in farmwo
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As we have seen, rationality is gen
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Would you pay $5 to participate in
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thousands of such experiments, and
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If program B is adopted, there is a
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point, and they are not about the r
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large print, but the move is in the
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The term utility has had two distin
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Figure 15 When the procedure was ov
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not have a voice. The remembering s
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Other classic studies showed that e
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we want to know whether they were r
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How would this prospect affect your
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welcome in any of these situations.
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exposure to loud noise, time pressu
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The satiation level beyond which ex
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the exact question they were asked,
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didn’t get it were significantly
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thinks much about. Thoughts of any
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stories and makes choices, and neit
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The mirror image of the same bias m
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explains how a rational agent with
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The example of a regulation about t
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The way to block errors that origin
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For an illustration of judgment by
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The values in parentheses are the n
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The illusion of validity. As we hav
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elementary demonstration of this ef
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imagine than unlikely ones; and tha
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event. The chain-like structure of
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lines or pages. Thus, people do not
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W. Edwards, “Conservatism in Huma
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Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky AB
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Figure 1. A Hypothetical Value Func
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If Program B is adopted, there is a
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same cd Cce f pattern of results wa
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In Figure 2, decision weights are l
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attractive if it is described as ef
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making, play a role analogous to th
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disadvantages as losses. Because lo
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The concepts of utility and value a
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McNeil, B., S. Pauker, H. Sox Jr.,
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editor could do as much as Eric did
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Us (New York: Guilford Press, 1999)
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working memory: Baddeley, Working M
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think with your body: Paula M. Nied
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engaged and analytic mode: Adam L.
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descriptions of two people: Solomon
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“Assimilation and Contrast Effect
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self-assessed contributions: Michae
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always weighted more: Jonathan St.
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inequality of income (measured by s
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outsiders, recruiting CEOs from com
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moderated by an arbiter: Mellers, H
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admiration of others: Entrepreneurs
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“history of one’s wealth”: Ot
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half of the tokens will change hand
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“acceptable/unacceptable”: Jos
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Samuel R. Gross and Kent D. Syverud
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“a sinking feeling”: Marcel Zee
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one embarrassing finding: Kuhn famo
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life as a whole these days: Another
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Los Angeles, Graduate School of Edu
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The index that appeared in the prin
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availability; affect and; and aware
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oken-leg rule budget forecasts Buil
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cognitive illusions; confusing expe
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default options denominator neglect
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Epley, Nick Epstein, Seymour equal-
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forecasts, see predictions and fore
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grades and grade point averages (GP
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inheritances injection puzzle In Se
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labor negotiations Lady Macbeth eff
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Mednick, Sarnoff Meehl, Paul meetin
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novelty Nudge (Thaler and Sunstein)
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t="-5%"> post-traumatic stress pove
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Rationality and the Reflective Mind
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Savage, Jimmie Save More Tomorrow S
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Steiger, James H. stereotypes; caus
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threats; possibility effect and 3-D
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wealth, see money and wealth weathe
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Grateful acknowledgment is made for
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Table of Contents Introduction 1. T
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Thank You W ant More Books? W e hop
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Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman

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