SIGAR

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT
$7.3 billion (equivalent to 39.6% of GDP) in 2016. Afghanistan’s legal exports
consist of goods (31.6%) and services (68.4%). 607 However, about 15–20%
of the total value of Afghanistan’s trade is said to be unrecorded, generally
involving smuggled goods, according to the World Bank. 608
Export and Import Data
Although Afghanistan routinely sustains a large trade deficit, donor aid
helped the country maintain an IMF-estimated current-account surplus
equivalent to 4.7% of GDP ($925 million) in 2015. This is projected to fall
to 4.5% of GDP ($825 million) in 2016. Without donor assistance, the IMF
estimated Afghanistan to have a current-account deficit equivalent to 33.5%
of its GDP in 2015 ($6.6 billion) and projected it to grow to the equivalent of
36.6% of GDP in 2016 ($6.7 billion). 609
During 2013–2015, Afghanistan exported $2.1 billion to $4.0 billion worth
of goods and services annually, compared to imports ranging between
$8.9 billion and $11.3 billion a year. The IMF projected Afghanistan’s 2016
exports at $2.1 billion, not including illicit narcotics (valued at $2.7 billion in
2014). Afghanistan’s 2016 imports were projected to be around $9.0 billion,
with more than $6.7 billion paid for by official donor grants. 610
IMF staff said that Afghanistan needs to increase and diversify its
exports, which will stimulate innovation and good management. 611 The
Afghan government pledged to reduce regulatory and operational barriers
to facilitate this. 612 Exports are heavily dependent on agricultural outputs,
which the World Bank said can increase if Afghanistan develops supply
chains for higher value-added products. However, this will require investments
to develop and improve irrigation and extension services, and to
build downstream agro-processing capacities. 613 Weather and rainfall would,
of course, continue to exert a significant influence on agricultural output
and income potential.
Afghanistan Trade and Revenue Project
USAID’s four-year, $78 million Afghanistan Trade and Revenue (ATAR)
project is a trade-facilitation program designed to (1) improve trade-liberalization
policies, including support for Afghanistan in implementing its
World Trade Organization (WTO) commitments; (2) improve and streamline
the government’s ability to generate revenue by modernizing Afghanistan’s
customs institutions and practices; and (3) facilitate bilateral and multilateral
regional-trade agreements. 614
This quarter, ATAR helped develop a draft post-WTO-accession strategy
framework for interministerial discussion and completed a needs assessment
for establishing the Afghan WTO representative office in Geneva.
Concurrently, ATAR continued to help the Afghan government amend
and draft laws to comply with WTO rules and commitments, including
on income tax, consumer protection, customs valuation, anti-dumping,
REPORT TO THE UNITED STATES CONGRESS I JANUARY 30, 2017
155