Bulletin de liaison et d'information - Institut kurde de Paris

Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro
7.1' 1~IJ\TERJ'IATlOX.\l.m • b
;I;-.eraU~~n nnt
de la Prensa-Basm Ozeti
March 30-31, 2002
The war summit • By David Ignatius
Blair and Bush to focus on
Saddam's weapons
WNOON
The fog ofwords surrounding Iraq should begin
to clear a bit next week when British
Prime Minister Tony Blair visits America,
carrying with him detailed intelligence
about Saddam Hussein's efforts to develop weapons
of mass destruction.
Blair will call on President George W. Bush at his
ranch in Crawford, Texas, for what the British press
has described as a "war summit." Blair will be bringing
a dossier on the Iraqi military threat. Reprising
the role he played after Sept.n in gathering evidence
about Osama bin Laden to build public support for
militaryaction, he will make much of the Iraq material
public - probably
It is this problem -
in a s~ next week.
Iraq's qontinuing and relentless
efforts to develop weaporls of mass destruction
- that explains the Bush administration's obsession
with Saddam. Thus far, Blair is the only European
who seems to agree about the seriousness of the
threat, but even he doesn't seem sure what to do
about it.
(I must caution my fellow scribe William Safire,
grande plume of the New York Tunes op-ed page,
that Blair will not be bringing evidence conrmning
secret meeti~ in Prague between al QJeda operatives
and Iraqi Intelligence officers to plan the Sept.n
attacks. The British, aloDf with senior CIA officials,
think that particular iraqi conspiracy theory doesn't
hold water.)
British and American offlCials are now sifting the
evidence that Blair will make public. Though the investigation
isn't finished. here are some of the areas
that Blair is likely to discuss:
• Biological weapons. The Iraqis were forced to
admit in 1995 that they had produced at least three
biological agents: anthrax spores, botulinum toxin
and aflatoxin. Thé Iraqis "weaponized" at least one
of these biological agents, so that it could be used effectively
against civilians or military forces. They
tested devices that could spray biological agents in
aerosol form, for example. .
• Chemical weapons. The Iraqis admitted in 1991
that they had produced mustard gas and the nerve
~ents tabun, sarin and "GF." The Iraqis also tried to
hide four tons of the nerve agent known as "VX," until
it was found by UN inspectors.
What worries the British and Americans is that
the Iraqis appear to be continuing a covert biological
and chemical weapons program at Tareq, in centrallraq
near Baghdad.
• Nuclear weapons. Despite having signed the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty, Saddam was secretly
racing before the GulfWar to build a nuclear bomb.
Analysts estimate that he would have had an Iraqi
nuke in less than three years, if the West hadn't gone
to war after he invaded Kuwait in 1990.
Because it involved so many complex technologies,
this nuclear program was severely disrupted
by the Gulf War. Saddam doubtless still bas nuclear
ambitions, but analysts doubt he can build an actual
bomb ofhis own anytime soon.
• Ballistic missiles. At the end of the Gulf War,
Iraq was able to hide about a dozen ofits Al-Hussein
Scud missiles. That's a relatively small number -
compared with the 500 Scuds Iraq rued at Iran during
the Iraq-Iran war, and the 93 Scuds it shot during
the 1991GulfWar.
The problem is, analysts don't seem to know
where these dozen remaining Scuds are. Even one of
them, armed with a biologicalor chemical warhead,
could do ca~trophic damage to .Israel, 1Urkey,
iSaudi'N'abia or any other target within the Al-Hus-
..ein's 650-kilometer (400-mile) range.
Givç~ Iraq's predilection for weapons of mass deftructtbn,
how should the world respond? That's the
real issue before Bush and Blair. The standard an-
IMer given by most European and Arab govern-
~ents 1i~to send UN weapons inspectors back into
Iraq to' find and destroy what's left of Hussein's
deadly arsenal. The problem with this approach can
be summed up in two words: Saddam cheats. A good
illustration comes from a defector who recently
provid~ d,etails about how Iraq is cheating on exist-
Ing UN'ruks for oil sales.
The Iraqis are operating a kind of shell game, according
to the defector's reports to an opposition
group called the Iraqi National Accord. Legal oil exports
cOme from the Al Shuaiba refinery in Basra
and are seht to the Al Bakr and Al Ameeq loading
ports - all in compliance with UN rules.
Meanwhile, other oil products - mainly diesel and
heavy oil..i.. are secretly pumped from the Al Shuaiba
refinery to two ports known as Abu Flous and Khor
Al Zuhair. From there, the oil products are illegally
smuggled out of Iraq by tanker and sold abroad -
with the profits going to Saddam and his secret p0-
lice.
If the United Nations ~ unable to stop this simple
smuggling operation, it's hard to imagine that it can
wrest the weapons of Armageddon from Saddam's
hand&.
TIHlt's why Bush and Blair will be looking next
weekltor tougher measures - and thinking about
how CO: coil'Vince skeptical allies of the need 'to take
action.
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