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PCB Market 4-5 Thermal Analysis Tools Dataquest believes that the following factors should drive the increase in usage of thermal analysis products: • Increasing clock speeds—^Whenever a transistor switches between two voltage levels in a digital circuit, it briefly passes through a linear mode in which the power dissipated in the device rises sharply. As the operating frequency rises, devices spend an increasing proportion of time in this high power state. For this reason, power dissipation, and therefore heat, rises with increased frequency. Clock frequencies of electronic systems are forecast to rise tenfold during the next decade. Major thermal problems will result from this speed increase, driving the need for thermal analysis tools. The coming wave of 100-pIus-MHz microprocessors is just the beginning. Digital Equipment Corporation's new Alpha-AXP microprocessor currently runs in ranges from ICW to 200 MHz, and can dissipate 30 watts of power. A 1-GHz version planned for 1994 will dissipate 175 watts, almost enough to let you read a book. • Multichip modules—Âs previously discussed, the emergence of this technology will drive the increased use of thermal analysis tools. The characteristic of MCMs, naked dice in close proximity, running at high operating frequencies, will cause severe thermal problems. These difficulties are intensified by the growing use of solder-bump flip-chip device packaging and assembly, since the major heat-transfer path is through the solder bumps. Current solutions include the emergence of thermal vias, which are metal connections whose sole purpose is to conduct heat away from the dice. The required nimibers and placement of these vias will need to be calculated by thermal analysis tools in the future. Currently thermal analysis tools are in the hands of those companies that have been early adopters of EDA technology, mainly mainframe computer and military/aerospace industries. However, a growing need exists in the automotive, constimer electronic, and telecommunications areas. Dataquest currently estimates that the PCB thermal analysis market is valued at $6.9 million in 1991; approximately 300 units shipped at an average selling prices (ASP) of $23,000, although we believe that 10 to 15 percent of these shipments are not actively used at this time. Many copies of thermal analysis software have been bundled into larger orders or have been purchased for evaluation and curiosity ressons, and we believe that a significant number of these licenses have never been used. However, Dataquest anticipates that PCB thermal analysis tools wiU become mandatory at suppliers of high-performance electronic systems. Figure 4-4 shows that this market wiU experience good growth, reaching a market size of $27 million by 1996. CCAM-EDA-MT-9202 ©1992 Dataquest Incorporated December 28,1992
4-6 CAD/CAM/CAE—Electronic Design Automation Applications Figure 4-4 Worldwide PCB Thermal Analysis Market Forecast Source: Dataquest (December 1992) G2001973 Regional Effects As shown in Figure 4-5, Asia continues to grow in its consumption of PCB/MCM/Hybrid tools. Much of this growth can be attributed to the rise in prominence of Zuken as a supplier of PCB and mixed signal layout tools to Japan. Dataquest anticipates that this rise in the consumption of PCB layout tools should stabilize within the riext few years as excess demand is filled in Asia. Dataquest Perspective Clearly, the PCB/MCM/Hybrid layout market is saturated, and existing vendors that are lulled into a false sense of security will be caught unaware. Suppliers of PCB layout software must continue to improve their product offerings in order to maintain current rr\arket share and to penetrate other markets. Any future growth in this area will be fuded by the adoption of advanced packaging technologies, namely multichip modiiles. Dataquest believes that significant revenue from MCM tools wOl begin to be seen in the 1994 time frame. December 28,1992 ©1992 Dataquest Incorporated CCAM-EDA-MT-9202 i i
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Dataquest CAD/CAM/CAE Electronic De
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DataQuest' Electronic Design Automa
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Published hy Dataquest Incorporated
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Table of Contents (Continued) Page
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List of Figures (Continued) Figure
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Chapter 1 Executive Summary Introdu
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Executive Summary 1-3 The renewed i
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2-2 CAD/CAM/CAE—Electronic Design
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2-^ CAD/CAM/CAE—Electronic Design
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2-10 CAD/CAiWCAE—Electronic Desig
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3-2 CAD/CAIWCAE—Electronic Design
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3-22 CAD/CAM/CAEEIectronic Design A
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4-2 Figure 4-2 North American Board
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5^ CAD/CAWCAE—Electronic Design A
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5-10 Figtire 5-9 Mean Importance Ra
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Appendix A Dataquest Electronic Des
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Dataquest Electronic Design Surv^ A
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Dataquest Electronic Design Survey
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Dataquest Electronic Design Surv^^
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Dataoyesf n n a company of MBMM The
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Dataquest Perspective CAD/CAM/CAE E
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CAD/CAM/CAE—Electronic Design Aut
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DataQuest' Electronic Design Automa
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Published by Dataquest Incorporated
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Table of Contents (Continued) Page
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List of Tables Table Page 2-1 1991
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Chapter 2 Executive Summary of the
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Executive Summary of the EDA Market
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Executive Summary of the EDA Market
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Table 1 CAD/CAM/CAE/aS 1991 Market
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according to the following segmenta
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• Director of Market Development
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I I V I Electronic Design Automatio
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lO I 1 I I I I Table 92 1991 CAD/CA
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lo •i j I I I Table 100 1991 CAD/
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Dataquest Dataquest Research and Sa
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DataoiJest' EDA Appiications Preiim
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EDA Applications Preliminary Foreca
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Table Page ^ 57 North America All P
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package for each person; the sharin
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European Forecast Drivers The Europ
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to s* I I I I Table 101 PreUminary
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K ataquest EDA Applications Prelimi
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Published by Dataquest Incorporated
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Tables Page Electronic Design Autom
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Tables Page PCB/Hybrid/MCM (Continu
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This document contains Dataquesfs d
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• Unit shipment is defined as the
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e tJ I I •n I I Table 3 1991 Prel
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§> 1 I I I I Table 4 Application:
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22 CAD/CAM/CAE-^lectronic Design Au
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lO & •B s- a I Table $ (Continued
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K) f 11 & I % Table 7 1991 Prelimin
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I •n 8- §• a Table 8 1991 PreU
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e h-* 1 I c I I I Table 9 1991 Prel
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e I i I I I Table 10 (Continued) 19
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40 CAD/CAM/CAE—Electronic Design
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@ H^ I i I a Table 11 (Continued) 1
Page 702 and 703:
i I I •a 3- a Table 11 (Continued
Page 704 and 705:
lO I ti n tr I Table 12 (Continued)
Page 706 and 707:
•o f I I I 17 a Table 12 (Continu
Page 708 and 709:
1 I I I I i Table 13 (ConttnuedO 19
Page 710 and 711:
P psiiqiqoid uotpnixudsH—Aiemqsti
Page 712 and 713:
© }-* I I B- ! I I Table 15 (Coatl
Page 714 and 715:
6 I-* 10 8 s- I *o 3 a Table 16 (Co
Page 716 and 717:
G I I •a (V I Table 16 (Contlnuei
Page 718 and 719:
I 8- a s I Table 17 (Continue^) 199
Page 720 and 721:
Table 17 (Continued) 1991 PreUmlnar
Page 722 and 723:
6 K) I I I 3* i Table IS (Contiiiue
Page 724 and 725:
66 CAO/CAM/CAE—Electronic Design
Page 726 and 727:
68 CAD/CAM/CAE-^lectronlc Design Au
Page 728 and 729:
e t-t I I 2? 5i t i I Table 22 1991
Page 730 and 731:
e h^ Is) I 2" 5- o I a Table 23 199
Page 732 and 733:
^ I I I I i Table 25 1991 PrcUnOoia
Page 734 and 735:
Table 26 1991 Prellsitmay iCiSi/eMA
Page 736 and 737:
6 I I •a a. I i Table 26 (Continu
Page 738 and 739:
e (o { I S Table 26 (Continued) 199
Page 740 and 741:
H* N) I s I I Table 27 1991 Prellff
Page 742 and 743:
e hu I I I i Table 27 (Continued) 1
Page 744 and 745:
e a •§ 8 •0 3 i Table 28 1991
Page 746 and 747:
s I 5- I I I Table 29 1991 PnhiSîi
Page 748 and 749:
e 1 a 1 1 I 1 I 1 1 a 0 9 1 1 Table
Page 750 and 751:
I I a s I Table 30 (Continued) Appl
Page 752 and 753:
Page 754 and 755:
I i I P I n o. Table 31 (Contiiiiie
Page 756 and 757:
@ « to •§ 1 J? 8- I I Table 52
Page 758 and 759:
IM s I I (V o I I Table 33 1991 Pre
Page 760 and 761:
6 I I 8- I I fi o. Table 34 1991 Pr
Page 762 and 763:
@ I I i I I I Table 35 (Continued)
Page 764 and 765:
106 I I t n C ] I "3 Q ..11 0. 1 ^
Page 766 and 767:
I I I I 1) 3 I Table 36 (Continued)
Page 768 and 769:
Page 770 and 771:
I a s I o. Table 37 (Contlnticd) 19
Page 772 and 773:
e h-* I Tl e- c I I i Table 38 (Con
Page 774 and 775:
ve N) f a I •n n 1 -3 1 1 1 s a T
Page 776 and 777:
e t-* lo S* I I I I i Table 40 (Con
Page 778 and 779:
Is) •g 1 1 I I i Table 41 (Coatin
Page 780 and 781:
Table 4l (Continued) 1991 PreUmlnar
Page 782 and 783:
g 1 I 2? 8- I •0 3 o. Table 42 (C
Page 784 and 785:
I I I Table 43 1991 PreUmltfirjr Ci
Page 786 and 787:
K) •s I I 5? n I I Table 44 1991
Page 788 and 789:
^ I 9 I i Table 45 (Continued) 1991
Page 790 and 791:
e 1 s I 1 I I 1 0 I a Table 46 (Con
Page 792 and 793:
Table 47 (Continued) 1991 Prellmlna
Page 794 and 795:
s % H s I J? p- a s I Table 49 1991
Page 796 and 797:
Table 50 (Continued) 1991 PreUmliia
Page 798 and 799:
I Table 51 (Contiitued) 1991 PrcUml
Page 800 and 801:
O I Table 52 (ContinuefQ 1991 Preli
Page 802 and 803:
Table 54 1991 Prcllndilitt^ CÛ>/CA
Page 804 and 805:
K) ! I 1 I 9 I I Table 56 1991 Prel
Page 806 and 807:
G t-i to I e- I Table 57 Applicatio
Page 808 and 809:
to I ? I I Table $8 1991 Prellfflln
Page 810 and 811:
I I a 2? I I n a Table 60 1991 FVÛ
Page 812 and 813:
J? s- I I I Table 61 (Continued) 19
Page 814 and 815:
Table 62 (Contiaiie IC Layout Techn
Page 816 and 817:
e t-* I 'S 5- I I Table 64 IQQI Pn-
Page 818 and 819:
e I s I •n I I I Table 66 1991 IV
Page 820 and 821:
e M to S i I 'L I •n 3 Table 67 1
Page 822 and 823:
G to 1 % 1 1 I 1 1 f 1 a o 0 i Tabl
Page 824 and 825:
to 1 •a I i I Table 70 1991 Vr6ao
Page 826 and 827:
e I-* ^ % £ jp 1 9 1 i Table 72 19
Page 828 and 829:
o t-^ g 1 1 I I 1 I Table 74 1991 P
Page 830 and 831:
e I 3? s- I I I Table 76 1991 Vrtâ
Page 832 and 833:
1 I I I a Table 76 (Condnued) 1991
Page 834 and 835:
! I I I Table 77 1991 Prelimlbi^ i^
Page 836 and 837:
e H* to •s I I •a a. a s I i Ta
Page 838 and 839:
Q ^ 1 g 8 1 £ •a g 1 t 1 9 1 s p
Page 840 and 841:
f o I I Table 80 (Contiaued) 1991 P
Page 842 and 843:
Table 81 i I I •a
Page 844 and 845:
I I r I Table 81 (Contlimed) 1991 P
Page 846 and 847:
O K) 1 i I I I Table 82 (Contlinied
Page 848 and 849:
lO I I I I Table 84 1991 Prellniliu
Page 850 and 851:
& ^ I I s? s- I I R a Table 8$ (Con
Page 852 and 853:
to I I I I I Table 86 (Coadnued) 19
Page 854 and 855:
196 CAD/CAM/CAE—Electronic Des^ A
Page 856 and 857:
e 1-* f IS 1 ! s- i I 1 0 I 1 Table
Page 858 and 859:
Page 860 and 861:
Page 862 and 863:
@ H^ 1 t i 2 1 I 1 1 a s Table 91 (
Page 864 and 865:
e V? I I 2" s- I I Table 92 (Contin
Page 866 and 867:
e $ N 1 Q 1 1 1 1 1 9 1 Table 94 19
Page 868 and 869:
f I I I I a a Table 95 CContlnued)
Page 870 and 871:
e t-* 10 ! 5? 8- a s I Table 96 (Co
Page 872 and 873:
I •B I i I Table 98 1991 Prellmln
Page 874 and 875:
Table 100 1991 Prellndiiftiy tXD/CA
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