CAD/CAM/CAE : electronic design automation, 1992 - Archive Server

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• We anticipate increased demand from
designers' clients and partners to reduce
uncertainty and risk; that is, to build what
the client had in mind, on time, and within
budget. Meeting this challenge will require
electronic design data throughout the
design/construction process.
These two factors w^ill continue to stimulate
growth in the AEC CAD market during the
next five years, even in a recession. Tempering
this growth will be the following fundamental
factors that discourage purchases:
• Despite significant consolidation and partnering
among users, the design and construction
process will still often be divided
among several companies representing
different aspects of the design process.
Because automation systems are considerably
harder to implement across companies than
within companies, the pencil as a design
tool will not be eliminated during the next
five years.
• Because AEC is built primarily on a "one
design/one build" model, proven economic
benefits of CAD use will remain smaller
than in mechanical and electronic applications,
where automated quantity manufacture
can more readily leverage improved designs.
This fact both discourages CAD use and
drives users to focus on electronic drafting.
Drafting software is nearly a commodity
typically sold on PCs and commands a relatively
low price.
GIS/Mapping
GIS software revenue is forecast to grow at a
robust 19 percent CAGR during the next five
years, primarily because of the following
factors:
• Bread-and-butter prospects in government
and utilities are diarged with maintaining
information on land and assets in perpetuity.
Many of these prospective buyers
are still using paper maps, which will
degrade. This creates a certain inevitability
to moving from paper maps to computer
maps—the first step to building a GIS.
• Inexpensive spatial data—^both public and
private—are accumulating, and their reuse
will help dissolve a traditional obstacle to
growth in GIS.
CAD/CAM/CAE—Eleclronic Design Automation Applications
• Several new technologies will drive growth
in the GIS market. Currendy, advances in
global positioning systems (GPS) and aerial
photography are making it possible to
create GIS systems significantly more
accurate than existing paper maps, giving
experienced users some compelling reasons
to reinvest. Increasingly portable computers,
multimedia, and better compression of satellite
imagery will create opportunities to
develop more useful GIS.
• Opportunities for growth exist in new applications,
industries, and regions. During the
forecast period, slow sales in one area will
generally be balanced with higher sales in
another.
Two factors seriously threaten the long-term
expansion of the GIS market, as follows:
• The uncertain G^ut certainly high) cost of
creating a working GIS.
• The impact of applications stuck in the pilot
phase, both in terms of halted purchases at
the troubled project, and the negative publicity
these projects create.
Electronic Design Automation
©1992 Dataquest Incorporated October—Reproduction Prohibited
The electronic design automation (EDA) industry
produced a lackluster 1 percent growth in
total factory revenue in 1991 and a 5 percent
growth in software revenue. This has as much
to do with fundamental changes occurring
within the top suppliers as with the following
economic factors:
• Product transitions of top EDA suppliers
have caused a significant stagnation in the
purchase of new EDA tools. Buyers are
prolonging their evaluation process. This
problem is further exacerbated by the global
recession and political and economic infrastructure
changes in North America and
Europe.
• The final vestiges of platform dependence
are being removed from the EDA industry.
This has a had a short-term negative effea
on the market, but should improve the
profitability of EDA tool suppliers.
Fueling the fires of growth in the coming
years will be the ever-increasing demands to
shorten the design cycles of electronic systems.