CAD/CAM/CAE : electronic design automation, 1992 - Archive Server

• The mechanical CAD/CAM/CAE market is
evolving to^vard a replacement market. The
next five years will see the mechanical
CAD/CAM/CAE market evolve toward a
replacement market where the new unit
sales will be balanced by system retirements.
This trend is inevitable. The only
remaining question is when. We forecast
1997 or 1998 as the balance point. Considering
the plethora of forces at work in
emerging technologies, world economics,
competitive issues, and software development,
this should be considered a rough
estimate.
• Significant changes are occurring for modeling
technologies. Two-dimension-only systems
are on a steady decline. Three-dimension
capability is available for a minimal
cost premium. Even if a user has few occasions
for a 3-D application, the minimal
expense and common availability on all
platform types makes a 3-D-based product a
reasonable alternative to 2-D-based products.
Only a few recent 2-D-only products have
added a significant amount of enhancements
for parametric-user input and constraintbased
modeling that may keep a significant
market presence. This discussion does not
intend to minimize the value or necessity
of providing high-performance production
drafting capabilities. The general message,
however, is that the vendor revenue from
this application is on the decline.
• Solid modeling has been promised for
many years as the panacea for the design
environment. More complete data structure
with improvements in performance is rapidly
building a strong following. Add-on applications
that use part or assembly information
are still less than optimal, but progress is
being made in integration between the
model and analysis applications, between
the model and documentation, and further
into manufacturing applications. Ease of use,
performance, and the ability to accurately
model any object independent of shape or
manufacturing process continue to challenge
all solid-modeling products.
• Knowledge-based engineering (KBE) is a
productivity multiplier for any mechanical
CAD/CAM/CAE system. The rules developed
can drive automated applications, capture
design intent, and automate sharing of
data between applications and departments.
Electronic Design Automation Applications Forecast Update
Every produaion operation has task and
procedural structures tliat can be automated
and optimized with KBE. The needed
improvements in ease of use, cost of
implementation, and availability of Interface
to a variety of mechanicai CAD/CAM/CAE
software products will improve with time.
Two years ago, our first in-depth look at
KBE made some wild predictions. We
expected the market to grow by a factor
of four in the next two years. A preliminary
analysis now shows that this prediction was
a bit optimistic. Doubled growth in two
years would be closer to the truth. The
general market softness has had an impact,
but the underlying market dynamics are
unchanged. In fact, the applications marked
for early implementation are proving to be
more successful than previously imagined.
• The promise of virtual reality (VR) and
multimedia in an engineering environment
is real. The practical applications are many.
Training is a prime target for these technologies
both as an aid to the proper use of
other computer tools and in job content to
make better engineers and designers. The
state of the art in VR has reached the
experimentation level of a new highperformance
visual experience. The next
phase will add the ability to do more than
just fly around in your data. Dynamic editing
will be required. Imagine doing cable
routing by grabbing the end of a wire and
flying through the engine compartment of
your car.
AEC
©1992 Dataquest Incorporated October—Reproduction Prohibited
The AEC CAD software market, which is forecast
to grow at a 14 percent CAGR for 1991
to 1996, will enjoy healthy underlying demand
during the forecast period because of the following
factors:
• We anticipate increased demand for electronic
design data ft-om designers' clients
and partners in the building process—^from
the U.S. goverrmient to the small commercial
developer. Designers in the AEC industry
are finding themselves in markets that
are more regionally and globally competitive,
markets that favor partnering across
design disciplines. The designer with no
CAD capability increasingly will be dropped
fi-om consideration as a partner or supplier.