CAD/CAM/CAE : electronic design automation, 1992 - Archive Server

EDA Applications
Preliminary Forecast
Introduction
The slowing of world economies was a major
factor affecting CAD/CAM/CAE growth in 1991
and will continue to affect growth over the
next few years. Many of the major world
economies faltered in 1991 to 1992. On a list
of the 33 largest countries compiled earlier this
year by the Economic Analysis Department of
The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation, 18 were in
or near recession. Although the gross domestic
product/gross national produa (GDP/GNP)
forecast for 1992 to 1993 has been adjusted
upward for the United States, the GDP/GNP
forecast for 1992 to 1993 for 7 of the 14
European economies tracked has been adjusted
downward. The Japanese economy, which has
traditionally exhibited steady growth when
other major economies slowed, began to falter
in the latter half of 1991. Forecasts call for
R&D spending in Japan to slow to less than
10 percent (for the first time in 10 years) and
for Japanese domestic spending to decline in
the second half of 1992.
In spite of these poor economic conditions,
the CAD/CAM/CAE market posted solid growth
of 9.5 percent to $15.8 billion in 1991, somewhat
slower than the growth rates of previous
years. The market is forecast to grow at a
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of
9 percent through 1996 (see Figure 1). (This
forecast is based on the CAD/CAM/CAE
group'^ preliminary market information and
will be updated in Oaober).
This document contains Dataquest's detailed
forecast information on the CAD/CAM/CAE
industry. Included in this document are the
following:
• Five-year historical data
• Five-year forecast data
More detailed data on this marked may be
requested through our client inquiry service.
Forecast Accuracy and
Comparison
Overall, last year's CAD/CAM/CAE market forecast
appears to have been slightly optimistic in
many cases, with some variance among
regions (see Table 1).
European growth in 1991 was slightly less
than expected because of slower growth in
all countries except Benelux. Overall, the
European economy slowed considerably during
1991. The North American results for 1991
were somewhat better than experted. Asia was
right on target. By application, ABC results
were slighdy better dian expected for 1991;
while actual results were somewhat lower
than expected in the other application areas.
Figure 2 shows the CAD/CAM/CAE forecast
by application.
Forecast Assumptions
Below are the main forces by region, driving
the CAD/CAM/CAE forecast.
Worldwide Forecast Drivers
The following are the main forces driving the
CAD/CAM/CAE worldwide forecast:
• CAD/CAM/CAE systems will continue to give
buyers a competitive edge. As time-tomarket
requirements shrink, demand for
design automation tools will continue to
increase.
• Limited system budget growth in the near
term will constrain growth. Budgets for
hardware, software, and services are forecast
to grow by 5 to 10 percent in North
America in 1992, 10 to 15 percent in
Europe, and approximately 15 percent in
Asia. Dataquest's research indicates that
users do not plan to buy one core software