CAD/CAM/CAE : electronic design automation, 1992 - Archive Server

CAD/CAM/CAE—Electronic Design Automation Applications
trigger increased use at other levels. For example,
user companies that successfully analyze a
PCB using PCB thermal tools will wish to carry
the resulting thermal model forward in order to
utilize it in a system level analysis. The three
sectors, however, are not at the same stage in
their technology/market development.
Market Sectors
Previously, military and aerospace companies
have expressed the most interest in thermal
analysis. From a market development
perspective, these sectors presented a niimber
of major obstacles, as follows:
• Both military and aerospace companies have
been in decline throughout the past three
years, and therefore present a reducing
opporttmity.
• Such companies take thermal issues very seriously.
Ustially, they employ thermal specialists
located in an analysis department. These
specialists must sign off company products
from a thermal standpoint and are already
using long-standing mainframe-based an^ysis
methods as specified by both the company
and the national defense authority. Certain
problems result:
• These analysis methods are difficult to
change.
• The thermal specialists basically disbelieve
that workstation-based solutions can be
sufficientiy comprehensive.
• They have no history of purchasing tools
from EDA companies.
• The decision cycle is very long.
• EDA companies really wanted to sell thermal
analysis tools to EDA users; however, these
users were tjrpically in different departments
than the thermal specialists, which raised
issues of organizational structure, standards
and QA procedures, organizational politics,
and shifting responsibilities for part of the
thermal design. This is a no-win situation.
Today, telecommunications and computer companies
are beginning to invest in thermal
analysis—especially those involved in highspeed
applications. Another sector that has
recentiy shown a considerable interest in thermal
analysis is industrial electronics, particiilarly for
factory automation appUcations involving harsh
environmental conditions.
Recent Dataquest end-viser research showed the
following:
• Sector companies most likely to have thermal
analysis tools now:
• Mainframe computers (especially in North
America)
• Aerospace/military (especially in North
America)
• Industrial control (especially in Japan)
• Sectors with the biggest need for thermal
analysis tools (these include the above sectors
with the following additions):
• Automotive (worldwide)
• Consumer electronics (Japan)
• Telecommunications (Europe and Japan)
• Sectors most likely to have no thermal analysis
tools at this time (very low penetration):
• Printers/plotters (worldwide)
• Test instruments and eqmpment
(worldwide)
• Automotive 0apan)
Two key opportunity sectors raised by this
research are the automotive sector in Japan,
which is surprisingly unpenetrated by tiiermal
analysis tools, and the constmier electroiucs sector.
The requirements for thermal analysis tools
by consumer electronics companies are often
overlooked by tool suppUers. Consumer companies
must ensure that they can produce highly
reliable products in very large volumes. Furthermore,
these products must operate tmder
extreme conditions—anywhere from Finland in
December to Las Vegas in July. This is a formidable
task and impHes a considerable investment
in thermal analysis.
Market Size and Forecast
We estimate the PCB thermal analysis market to
be valued at $6.9 miUion in 1991, corresponding
to 303 unit shipments. However, we believe that
10 to 15 percent of these shipments are not
actively used at this time. Many copies of PCB
thermal analysis software have been bundled
CCAM-EDA-DP-9202 ©1992 Oalaquest Incorporated August 31,1992