CAD/CAM/CAE : electronic design automation, 1992 - Archive Server

European Forecast Drivers
The European market will reach $9.1 billion
by 1996 and grew 9 percent in 1991 to
$5.7 biUion. This market is forecast to have a
revenue CAGR of 10 percent through 1996.
Some of the main issues driving the European
forecast include the following:
• Growth will steadily increase in Eastern
Europe. The collapse of the Soviet Union as
an export market has complicated the difficult
situation already facing other central
and eastern European countries as they
make the transition to market economies
and establish new international trading
arrangements. Poland, Hungary, and, more
recently, Czechoslovakia have made impressive
progress in shifting exports to other
markets. In all these countries, prices have
been set free and inflation seems to be
coming under control. The initial groundwork
has been laid. GDP/GNP growth is
forecast to turn positive during 1992 to 1993
and reach strength toward 1994. As these
countries' economies become market economies,
CAD/CAM/CAE opportunities will
increase.
• Growth will be relatively unaffected by the
advent of the European Conununity (EC).
The effects of 1992 will be evolutionary, not
revolutionary. Currendy, the new EC regulations
on environment (such as request for
environmental impact studies for town planning)
are driving considerable growth in the
GIS application area.
• Growth is expected for European vendors
as they expand into other European markets.
To date, many European vendors have
competed only in their country of origin.
Over the next forecast period, European
vendors will increasingly expand their overseas
operations to become more competitive
across the European community.
German companies and German subsidiaries
of international companies are increasingly
expanding into Eastern European countries.
Asian Forecast Drivers
The Asian market grew 14 percent in 1991
to $4.4 billion, and its forecast CAGR for
revenue is 9 percent through 1996. Some of
EDA Applications Preliminary Forecast
01992 Dataquest Incorporated May^^teproduction Prohibited
the main issues driving the Asian forecast are
as follows:
• Shifting labor costs will affect growth among
countries. Labor costs in Japan, Korea,
Taiwan, and Hong Kong will continue to
increase, which will result in a growing
demand for productivity tools including
CAD/CAM/CAE. Industries with blue-collar
workers will transfer operations to Indonesia,
Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and
the Republic of China; Japan, Korea, Taiwan,
and Hong Kong will grow based on
the industry of the white-collar workers.
Remote design and manufacturing sites also
will encourage the growth of electronic data
sharing and thus CAD/CAM across Asia.
• Growth will be strong as companies continue
transitioning from the mainframe to
network-based desktop environments.
CAD/CAM/CAE in Japan is still predominandy
a mainframe environment. As companies
increase their interest in desktop systems,
healthy unit growth will occur, and
ASPs should decline sharply.
• Growth will be strong in EDA. Demands for
merchant EDA tools supporting the design
of ASICs, MCMs, and application-specific
standard products (ASSPs) will expand; the
development of in-house electronic products
will continue to decline. The EDA industry
will continue moving toward an oligopoly
of vendors providing a full line of tools
encapsulated w^ithin an open framework,
with niche vendors providing point-solution
tools.
• Growth is less likely in some Asian countries
because of the lack of stringent
intellectual property rights. Most Asian countries,
with the exception of Japan, have few
laws governing intellectual property rights.
Many companies will be hesitant to invest
or set up operations in a region where they
will receive no design protection.
• Mechanical CAD/CAM/CAE growth will continue
to be strong in Asia because of growing
requirements to support concurrent
engineering. Point-solution tools associated
with parametric and variational design,
manufacturability, and testability will be
required. Major vendors will add these tools
through OEMs, merger and acquisitions, or