CAD/CAM/CAE : electronic design automation, 1992 - Archive Server

EDA tools will continue to be purchased in
hopes to gain competitive advantages. Application
markets that will contribute to this growth
include the following:
• Advanced analysis tools for IC and PCB
designs. Increasing clock frequencies will
require tighter design tolerances and
sophisticated analysis tools will be needed
to ensure proper operation.
• Architectural-level tools to improve designer
productivity. While top-down design is now
being adopted by the majority of electronic
designers, architectural-level tools will
emerge during the next two to five years.
• Emerging higher service content. A higher
service content will emerge in the EDA
industry as large suppliers shift their business
models toward solutions and selling
integration services.
Notes on Forecast
For the 1991 publishing cycle, Dataquest's
CAD/CAM/CAE/GIS group added server as a
platform. The platform categories now include
technical workstation, host-dependent, server,
and personal computer. Revenue formerly classified
in technical workstations, host-dependent,
or personal computer may now be more
accurately classified, where appropriate, in the
server category. How^ever, because of this
reclassification, data and growth rates for the
other platform areas were affected. Figure 4
depicts the revised platform distribution.
Forecast Methodology
Fundamental to the way Dataquest conducts
its research is an underlying philosophy that
says the best data and analyses come from a
well-balanced program. This program includes
the following: balance between primary and
secondary collection techniques; balance
between supply-side and demand-side analysis;
balance between focused, industry-specific
research and coordinated, "big-picture" analysis
aided by integration of data from the more
than 25 separate high-technology industries
Dataquest covers; and balance between
the perspectives of experienced industry
Electronic Design Automation Applications Forecast Update 11
professionals and rigorous, disciplined techniques
of seasoned market researchers.
©1992 Dataquest Incorporated October—Reproduction Prohibited
Dataquest also analyzes trends in the macroenvironment,
which can have major influences
on both supply-side and demand-side forecasting.
In addition to demographics, analysts look
at GNP growth, interest rate fluctuation, currency
fluctuation, business expectations, and
capital spending plans. In the geopolitical
arena, the group looks at trade issues, political
stability or lack thereof, tariffs, nontariff barriers,
and such factors as the effect on Europe
of the events of 1992. Figure 5 depicts the
building blocks for the CAD/CAM/CAE/GIS
forecast.
Figure 6 is a diagram of the CAD/CAM/CAE/
GIS forecasting model. The overall forecasting
process uses a combination of forecasting
techniques such as time series and technological
modeling. Market estimates and forecasts
are derived using the following research
techniques:
• "Bottom-up" aggregation—^Hiis method
involves adding all relevant vendor contributions
to arrive at total market estimates for
all historical data.
" Segment forecasting—^For each application
segment tracked by the CAD/CAM/CAE/GIS
group, individual forecasts are derived following
the basic information model defined
previously. S[>ecifically, each design phase
covered within each application is segmented
by charmel, product, region, and
platform. In this way, each application segment
incorporates its own set of unique
assumptions.
• Demand-based analysis—^Market growth is
tracked and forecast in terms of the present
and anticipated demand of current and
future users. This requires the development
of a total available market (TAM) model
and a satisfied available market figure to
accurately assess the levels of penetration.
Installed base is also evaluated. Rates of
product retirement are primarily based on
input from end users in our ongoing survey
programs. Figure 7 shows the CAD/CAM/
CAE/GIS installed base by platform. In
addition, Dataquest analysts factor in the
acceptance or ability for users to consume
new technology.