The FuTure oF nuclear Fuel cycle - MIT Energy Initiative

who are very concerned with global warming and therefore support nuclear power (and,
incidentally, tend to favor environmental protection over economic growth) plus those who
think the risks of global warming are exaggerated but who also favor nuclear power. The
pro-nuclear coalition, then, consists of groups who normally find themselves at odds.
These responses to this survey also offer insight into the potential connection between concern
about global warming and support for nuclear power. The response to the above question
may be thought of as capturing two variables, willingness to use nuclear power and
concern about risks of global warming. Respondents are asked to weigh each and reveal
how they would trade off one risk against the other. An alternative representation of the
responses to the above question, then, is as two-by-two table. The first cell of the table corresponds
to those who would like to use nuclear power and who think the risk of global
warming is very high; the second cell consists of those who do not think global warming
presents a high risk and would like to expand nuclear power regardless; and so on.
Implied Relationship between Global Warming Risk and Willingness to Use Nuclear
Power.
Global WarminG riSK
nuclear use
hiGh loW
yes 36% 23%
no 25% 15%
A standard chi-squared test reveals that one cannot reject the hypothesis that the two variables
in the table are statistically independent. That is, the likelihood of supporting nuclear
power is approximately the same among those who said that global warming presented a
high risk and those who did not. If public understanding of these two issues remains the
same, then increasing concern about global warming will not lead directly to increased
support for nuclear power. Support for nuclear power might be indirectly tied to climate
change, as the climate issue may alter elite discourse about energy policy and, in turn, public
opinions. However, over the past 7 years we have seen little evidence that those who are
more concerned about global climate emissions are more likely to support nuclear power.
A connection might be established with increased public understanding of the comparative
carbon emissions of fossil fuels and of nuclear power.
CitationS and noteS
1. Prepared by Stephen Ansolabehere, sda@gov.harvard.edu.
2. http://mit.edu/canes/publications/programs/nes.html
3. http://web.mit.edu/polisci/portl/index.html.
4. The results of earlier polls and trends are reviewed by Eugene A. Rosa and Riley E. Dunlap, “Nuclear Power: Three
Decades of Public Opinion Trends,” Public Opinion Quarterly 58 (1994): 295.
5. The Nuclear Energy Institute’s surveys ask somewhat different questions, especially whether the respondent supports
nuclear power, period, or expansion of capacity at existing facilities.
6. The wording in 2007 was slightly different as reflected the changing regulatory circumstances. “The United States is
developing a nuclear waste storage facility in Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Do you think the U.S. should complete and
use this facility?”
132 MIT STudy on The FuTure oF nuclear Fuel cycle