The FuTure oF nuclear Fuel cycle - MIT Energy Initiative

Chapter 1 — The Future of the Nuclear
Fuel Cycle — Overview, Conclusions, and
Recommendations
In 2003 MIT issued the report The Future of Nuclear Power. The focus for that report was
the role of nuclear power as an important option to avoid greenhouse gas emissions. A major
conclusion of the report was that “In deregulated markets, nuclear power is not now cost
competitive with coal and natural gas. However, plausible reductions by industry in capital
cost, operation and maintenance costs, and construction time could reduce the gap. Carbon
emission credits, if enacted by government, can give nuclear power a cost advantage.” The
primary recommendation was that the U.S. Government should provide assistance for the
construction of the first few new nuclear plants. The recommendation was based on the
need to operate within an untested regulatory regime, the failure of government to initiate
spent nuclear fuel removal from reactor sites, and the public interest in understanding the
economics of new nuclear power plants in the U.S. as part of a climate change risk mitigation
strategy. There would be an opportunity to reduce or eliminate a substantial financing
risk premium if the capability to build plants on schedule and within budget was demonstrated.
Since 2003 the urgency to address climate change has increased. The U.S. Congress has indeed
adopted a set of incentives to aid the construction of the “first mover” nuclear plants
and the Administration has proposed to expand the incentives. There has been a worldwide
increase in projected growth of nuclear power and a large growth in the start of construction
of new nuclear power plants in a few countries such as China. We undertook this study
on the Future of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle to address two overarching questions in the context
of the potential for significant growth in nuclear energy.
p What are the long-term desirable fuel cycle options?
p What are the implications for near-term policy choices?
Our analysis has led to three broad conclusions, the basis for which will be presented in this
chapter and in the body of the report.
conclusion
For the next several decades, light water reactors using the once-through fuel
cycle are the preferred option for the U.S.
Chapter 1 — The Future of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle — Overview, Conclusions, and Recommendations 1