The FuTure oF nuclear Fuel cycle - MIT Energy Initiative

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Figure 3.2 deffeyes log-normal Frequency model for distribution of uranium in the earth. [4] [9] distribution of uranium in the earth 10 14 average Crust log-normal distribution 10 12 estimated amount of uranium (tonnes) 10 10 10 8 Slope = 3.5 Canadian mines 10 6 1 2 VEIN DEPOSITS VEIN DEPOSITS, PEGMANTES UNCONFORMITY DEPOSITS 10 4 ore Grade (parts per million of uranium), x FOSSIL PLACERS, SANDSTONES FOSSIL PLACERS, SANDSTONES VOLCANIC DEPOSITS BLACKSHALES, e.g. Chattanooga SHALES, PHOSPHATES, e.g. Phosporis GRANITES AVERAGE CRUST EVAPORATES, SILICEOUS OOZE, CHERT OCEANIC IGNEOUS CRUST OCEAN WATER FRESH WATER 100,000 1,000 10 .1 .001 (after deffeyes 1978,1980) chapter 3: uranium resources 35
Figure 3.3 relative uranium Cost vs. normalized Cumulative nuclear energy Generation 5 4 relative cost of uranium (year 2005 constant $) (c,$/kg)/100 3 2 1 rBI rBu 85% 50% 15% 0.5 G1 ▶ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 20 30 40 50 G,cumulative GWe-yr of nuclear electricity @ 200 MT unat per Full Power GWe-yr (divided by 10 4 ) G5 ▶ G10 ▶ Three lines are shown based on the probabilistic assessment described in the appendix of Chapter 3. The top line is to be interpreted as an 85% probability that the cost relative to the baseline cost will be less than the value on the trace plotted as a function of the cumulative electricity production using today’s LWR once-through fuel cycle. The three lines meet at the far left where the baseline cost of uranium is taken as 100 $/kg, and the baseline total cumulative nuclear electricity production is (somewhat arbitrarily) taken as 10 4 GWe-yr using 2005 as the reference year. The other lines correspond to 50% and 15% probabilities. As one example at 10 5 GWe-yr cumulative production, there is an 85% probability that uranium will cost less than double 2005 costs (i.e., less than $200/kg), a 50% probability that it will cost less than 30% greater than 2005 costs, and a 15% probability that it will be 20% or lower in cost. As another example, if there were five times as many nuclear plants (G5) and they each operated for 100 years, we would expect (at 50% probability) uranium costs to increase by less than 40%. Because uranium is ~4% of the production cost of electricity, an increase to 6% of the production costs would not have a large impact on nuclear power economics. The two points plotted on Figure 3.3 correspond to 2007 Red Book values for identified (RBI) and identified-plus-undiscovered (RBU) resources at under 130 $/kg: 5.5 and 13.0 million metric tons. These benchmarks support the expectation that uranium production costs should be tolerable for the remainder of the 21 st century – long enough to develop and smoothly transition to a more sustainable nuclear energy economy. 36 MIT STudy on The FuTure oF nuclear Fuel cycle
Page 3 and 4: Other Reports in This Series The Fu
Page 5 and 6: MIT Nuclear Fuel Cycle Study Adviso
Page 7 and 8: vi MIT STudy on The FuTure oF nucle
Page 9 and 10: viii MIT STudy on The FuTure oF nuc
Page 11 and 12: Study Findings and Recommendations
Page 13 and 14: Recommendation We recommend that a
Page 15 and 16: p Innovative nuclear energy applica
Page 17 and 18: p In line with many of our R&D reco
Page 19 and 20: The “once through” or open fuel
Page 21 and 22: have been implemented slowly. This
Page 23 and 24: Recommendation We recommend that th
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Page 27 and 28: nuClear Fuel CyCleS The united Stat
Page 29 and 30: - The primary differences were in t
Page 31 and 32: Recommendation Integrated system st
Page 33 and 34: Table 1.2 Summary of R&D Recommenda
Page 35 and 36: 18 MIT STudy on The FuTure oF nucle
Page 37 and 38: the once-through Fuel Cycle for lig
Page 39 and 40: tricity costs. Waste management cos
Page 41 and 42: Figure 2.3 partial recycle of lWr S
Page 43 and 44: history of the nuclear Fuel Cycle B
Page 45 and 46: • What is the impact of timing of
Page 47 and 48: nuclear fuel cycles, the wastes (SN
Page 49 and 50: Because ore demand is closely coupl
Page 51: eStimatinG Future CoStS oF uranium
Page 55 and 56: Figure 3.4 100 year price trend for
Page 57 and 58: Stockpiling If supply interruption
Page 59 and 60: CitationS and noteS 1. Uranium 2007
Page 61 and 62: If SNF is to be shipped, typically
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Page 65 and 66: Dry cask storage is used for short
Page 67 and 68: For decommissioned sites, our econo
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Page 75 and 76: Table 5.1 United States Waste Class
Page 77 and 78: table 5.3 examples of operational G
Page 79 and 80: Waste Isolation Pilot Plant The uni
Page 81 and 82: Successful repository programs are
Page 83 and 84: designed with limited SNF storage c
Page 85 and 86: CitationS and noteS 1. A Handbook f
Page 89 and 90: energy spectrum centered at higher
Page 91 and 92: light Water reactor Fuel technical
Page 93 and 94: (fertile-free) to CR=1.0 (break-eve
Page 95 and 96: license. However, fuel reprocessing
Page 97 and 98: Figure 6.4 densification Factors as
Page 99 and 100: As expected, the breeder installed
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Table 6.8 Uranium Cost in $/kg, Sta
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Figure 6.11 location of the tru inv
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SenSitivity analySiS: alternative a
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Fast reactor technical Characterist
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cooled fast reactor (SFR) fueled by
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Summary oF ConCluSionS Among the in
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[hoffman et al., 2006] e.a. hoffman
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This chapter reports the cost of th
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Table 7.1 Input Parameter Assumptio
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Twice-Through Cycle Table 7.3 shows
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Table 7.4 The LCOE for the Fast Rea
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higher cost of disposal of the spen
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110 MIT STudy on The FuTure oF nucl
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power program might be used, as is
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Figure 8.1 Weapons-usability Charac
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inStitutional approaCheS to Fuel Cy
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the iaea additional protocol an Iae
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in technology innovation are likely
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Reprocessing choices Commercial rep
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Table 8.2 Safeguard Technical Objec
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port for nuclear power over the per
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Those Americans who have an opinion
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who are very concerned with global
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p Waste management must be integrat
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options because we do not know toda
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Nuclear Security. Nonproliferation
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There have been major changes in ou
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There are large financial and polic
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Figure 3A.2 shows the results. As c
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Figure A.3 plots Eq (2), where adva
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Again, assuming that q = 0.29, the
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Note that Eq. [7] suggests employin
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Figure 3b.1 Cumulative probability
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Figure 5a.1 decay of radioactivity
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and 241 Am. For the short term, hea
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Repository Engineering All reposito
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epreSentative repoSitory deSiGnS: u
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orehole diSpoSal There are three me
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table 7a.1 list of variables , 1 lc
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The Twice-Through Cycle The LCOE fo
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A proper representation of the chai
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In the Twice-Through Cycle, the pai
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table 7a.2 once-through Fuel Cycle
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above ground storage. However, the
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CitationS and noteS 1. The methodol
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Historically, the interest in thori
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p Analogous to plutonium. Plutonium
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In case self-protection of U-232 da
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Figure a.3 Schematic view of Sbu an
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eaCtor teChnoloGieS Nuclear power e
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via 239 Pu and 240 Pu, and then the
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urnups, but the gap between the nec
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(~700°C) with higher thermal-to-el
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There are several unique consequenc
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performance goals can be achieved.
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is that it will be many decades bef
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system [1]. The nuclear power plant
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The HTRs can be used to provide hig
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[http://nextgenerationnuclearplant.
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CitationS and noteS Brinkmann, H. U
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The analysis is based on the assump
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considerations discussed above. We
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In our analysis we make the explici
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Figure d.4 transmutation Consequenc
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Figure d.5 breeder Consequences LWR
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facilities. These concerns are the
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Technological applicability Geologi
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It must be noted, that net risks an
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p Once-through fast reactor fuel. T
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Table E.1 Recycling Plant Functions
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Table E.3 Conventional Fuel Fabrica
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eactor. A summary of inputs from in
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