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25th International Congress for Conservation Biology • Auckland, New Zealand • 5-9 December 2011 activities is necessary to conserve these areas for the benefit of both local livelihoods and biodiversity. In the Western Ghats region of India, as in many other tropical ecosystems, people use fire to manage wild plant harvest and livestock grazing. We combine results from ecological studies and interviews with local harvesters to understand how fire, leaf harvest and grazing impact the population dynamics of a wild palm (Phoenix loureiri) as well as the composition, structure and diversity of surrounding plant communities. Matrix population models demonstrate that the potential for sustainable palm leaf harvest depends on fire frequency. Increased grazing following fire – along with increased harvesting intensity – reduces projected population growth rates (λ). We find similar levels of plant diversity between areas managed by local communities for leaf harvest and livestock grazing and an adjacent protected area. However, areas with livestock grazing have a greater abundance of common species and fewer rare species, suggesting a trade-off between managing for local benefits and managing for plant conservation. Understanding trade-offs between different management goals is important to ensuring that conservation contributes both to human wellbeing and the maintenance of biodiversity. 2011-12-08 11:00 Climate and the macroecology of abundance Manne, Lisa*, City University of New York; Hawkins, Bradford, University of California at Irvine; La Sorte, Frank, Yale University; Characterizing the geographic pattern of distribution of abundance among species allows analysis of community structure, predictors of this structure, and how this structure changes over time. The North American Breeding Bird Survey collects yearly point-counts of North American birds during the summer breeding season across over 4000 routes. Using this information, we asked three questions for bird species in each of four time periods: 1974-1976, 1984-1986, 1994-1996, and 2004-2006. 1) We hypothesized that total abundance(summed across all species) is related to local climate. Results were significant, but little variability in total abundance is explained by local climate (R2 values were in the range 0.08 – 0.12). 2) We analyzed the geographic pattern in variability of total abundance within relatively large sampling units (one-degree grid cells). This variability shows a clear latitudinal trend, with lower variability at the more northern latitudes. 3) We characterized the distribution of abundance among species with Fisher’s alpha, hypothesizing that this index would show a latitudinal trend, and would become more variable in later time periods. Fisher’s alpha varies geographically, though the pattern is somewhat anomalous due to lack of significant alpha estimates in the prairies, and interestingly, this pattern does not vary with time. Variability in total abundance shows a latitudinal trend, which cannot be explained by the distribution of abundance among species. 2011-12-06 15:15 People, Production and Biodiversity Protection: Bringing it all Together Margules, C.*, Conservation International; Kirkman, A, Conservation International; Societies and governments now have to respond to radical changes in ecosystem processes that previously have been taken for granted, unmeasured and unpriced by markets. To make an analogy with the financial sector, if we think of natural resources as our capital we are now faced with learning how to live off the interest rather than running down the principal. Alternative models of economic development that value and incorporate the contribution of ecosystem processes and biodiversity need to be developed. This paper describes two field demonstrations of alternative development paradigms that are now being implemented and tested. One is in the Birds Head Seascape, Papua Barat Province, Indonesia and the other in the Tonle Sap, Cambodia. They were chosen because they are in global biodiversity hotspots, because livelihoods and food security are at risk, because strategies to adapt to climate change are needed in both, and in Tonle Sap, because freshwater quality is at issue. There needs to be many more. There is ‘no one size fits all’. Each is highly contextualized to place and to governance arrangements, though changes to governance are likely to be part of the process. But there are the commonalities of ecosystem-based management and the aims of securing livelihoods into the future, while sustaining ecosystems and biodiversity. This is a complex, time-consuming and challenging process. It requires specialist knowledge from many disciplines, new policies, a long-term view and adequate funding. But there needs to emerge a viable alternative to business as usual. 2011-12-08 18:30 Distribution and Threat of Atlantic Forest Endemic Birds under Climate Change Scenarios Mariana M. Vale*, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ); Maria Alice S. Alves, University of the State of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ); Maria Lucia Lorini, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ); Tiago Vieira de Souza, Federal University of the State of Rio de Janeiro (UNIRIO); Cristiane M. Medeiros, University of the State of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ); We model the re-distribution of 141 birds endemic to a biodiversity hotspot – the Brazilian Atlantic Forest – under a “business as usual” scenario of green house gas emission for 2050. We used Maximum Entropy distribution modeling with eight environmental variables. We then estimated specie’ threat status by 2050, using IUCN’s extent of occurrence criterion. Of the 137 species with reliable models (AUC > 0.8), 117 are predicted to lose distribution area under climate change, with an average range contraction of 51% (or 287,180km2). The predicted reduction in distribution size will bring six species to the threshold for threat. When we discount from the modeled sitributions the areas that area already deforestation, the number of predicted threatened species doubles. The contraction of species geographic ranges reflected itself on the geographic patter of endemic bird richness in the Atlantic Forest. The areas with the highest bird richness, in central Atlantic Forest, are greatly reduced in the future scenario. One relatively small area in northern Brazil, however, is predicted to have a moderate increase in bird richness. That area, though, is highly deforested and therefore, might not be able to fulfill its role as a “climatic refuge” for Atlantic Forest birds under climate change. 2011-12-06 10:45 Biodiversity, biogeography and protected areas in highly threatened portion of the Brazilian Cerrado Mariana Napolitano e Ferreira*, Universidade de São Paulo, departamento de Ecologia; Cristiano de Campos Nogueira, Universidade de Brasília; Vania R. Pivello, Universidade de São Paulo, departamento de Ecologia; Paula H Valdujo, Universidade de São Paulo; Debora Silvano, Universidade de São Paulo; Luis F Silveira, Universidade de São Paulo; Ana Paula Carmignotto, Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos; The establishment of representative protected area systems in poorly studied, biologically diverse tropical areas poses a serious challenge to conservation, especially in regions suffering extensive human pressure and habitat loss. We assessed the representativeness of the regional protected area system in the Brazilian state of Tocantins, northern portion of the Cerrado hotspot, based on the distribution of 109 target species of vertebrates and plants. The major aims of the study were to investigate the existence of significant, nonrandom biogeographical patterns, and to evaluate the performance of current reserves in protecting regional biodiversity patterns. Results indicated that selected target species represent biogeographical patterns of Tocantins biota, which are, however, only partially protected in current reserves. Significant gaps were detected in the protection of the species and biotic elements in the study system. Our results highlight the importance of considering biogeographical patterns when selecting target species for conservation planning, including endemic species that are both vulnerable to habitat loss and important surrogates of evolutionary processes. Given appropriate data collection and correct choice of target species, the scarcity of biodiversity data is not an impediment to systematic conservation approaches in tropical regions with high biodiversity levels and incipient reserve systems. 2011-12-09 10:30 The world’s temperate indigenous grasslands: their conservation, values and sustainable management, from a New Zealand perspective. Mark, AF*, Alpine Ecology Research Group, University of Otago and Temperate Grasslands Conservation Initiative, IUCN; Dickinson, KJM, Alpine Ecology Research Group, Department of Botany, University of Otago; Schwendenmann, L, School of Environment, University of Auckland; Temperate grasslands, one of the world’s great biomes, are in an altered and highly endangered state. Occupying ~8% of the earth’s surface, only ~5% of the biome is protected, despite the many ecosystem services,cultural and social values it supports. Land transformation resulting from intensification and the separate effects of grassland burning and grazing need assessment to 102
25th International Congress for Conservation Biology • Auckland, New Zealand • 5-9 December 2011 achieve sustainable management. Low- to mid-altitude grasslands are the most threatened worldwide, including in New Zealand,where, despite ~15% of the baseline (1840) grassland area (31%) now protected, there is a serious lack of low-to-mid altitude representation. Only 5% of the remaining 25% of the short (Poa and Festuca spp.) tussock grasslands are protected, despite the high proportion of threatened biota that they support. The mid-high altitude grasslands are better protected (40% of the 96% still remaining low-alpine, and 21% of the 81% still remaining montane-subalpine snow tussock grasslands) and are also fundamentally important for ecosystem services, particularly water yield and soil conservation.. The Glendhu paired (snow tussock vs. Pinus radiata) catchment study at 460-670 m in SE South Island, for example, has recorded a generally steady differential yield since canopy closure in 1991, with a 43% reduction in 2010, 28 years after planting. Carbon storage in healthy tall snow tussockland as at Glendhu is also important, both above- and below-ground, which, being grassland, has not yet been formally recognised in international protocols. These and other temperate grassland values justify greater recognition in decisions on their sustainable management and formal protection. 2011-12-08 14:20 Shade coffee as an ecological trap for Neotropical birds Mark, Melissa*, Columbia University; Highly abundant Neotropical birds living in agroecosystems such as shade coffee are not considered of high conservation concern, yet little is known about the demographic patterns of these species. I evaluated the reproductive consequences of habitat selection in two understory insectivores, the rufous-and-white wren (Thryothorus rufalbus) and the plain wren (Thryothorus modestus), in a Nicaragua coffee agroecosystem. I measured habitat selection and its effect on nest success at three scales: the landscape, the territory, and the nest site. The rufous-and-white wren exhibited strong preference for shade coffee within the territory and as a nesting site, driven by vegetation characteristics common to coffee and forest. Pairs that included shade coffee in the territory or as a nesting site experienced significantly higher nest loss than individuals whose territories or nesting sites were in forest. However, the plain wren did not exhibit a strong preference for any single habitat type, even though nest success was highest in edge areas. This study indicates that shade coffee may serve as a population sink or ecological trap for certain species and further study of the demographic patterns of birds living in shade coffee is recommended to ensure their persistence in agroforestry landscapes. 2011-12-08 18:30 Effect of climate change on ectotherms and endotherms in mainland Spain Marquez, A.L.*, Universidad de Malaga; Real, R., Universidad de Malaga; We evaluated the relative contribution of climate in making a given area favourable for 128 species of non-volant tetrapods in mainland Spain by using variation partitioning and weighting the effect of climate in relation to non-climatic factors (spatial, topographic and human) in the period 1961-1990. We then projected the pure independent effect of the climatic to the future models. We used two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: CGCM2 and ECHAM4; and two special reports on emission scenarios: A2 and B2. We used fuzzy logic operations to calculate, for each future projection, several features of the predicted impact of climate change on the species favourability, namely the increment in favourability (I), the favourability overlap (O), the favourability maintenance (M) and the predicted shift in favourability (S), with respect to the 1961-1990 period. Our results show that the number of ectotherms that will lose favourable areas is higher than the number of endotherms. In general all the nonvolant teprapods have a high predicted maintenance rate (M>0.8), this means that for most of this species it will conserve a significant part of their present distribution. 2011-12-06 10:30 Is triage feasible in species conservation? The sirenia case study Marsh, H*, James Cook University ; IUCN emphasizes that conservation action should not be automatically linked to Red Listing, stressing that management interventions should be applied only after analysis of threatening processes and the measures needed to counteract them. The Order Sirenia (sea cows) is one of three mammalian orders identified as being at risk of extinction. All four extant sirenians are classified as vulnerable by IUCN. The capacity of the 80+ range states to conserve sirenians was assessed assuming that capacity depends on both the sirenian population size and the state’s Human Development Index. International assistance is unwarranted for populations in the thousands in seven countries with Very High Human Development Indices. Very small populations (less than one hundred) and small populations in 19 countries with Very Low Human Development Indices must be unlikely to persist. International aid is likely to make most difference to the conservation of sirenian populations in 26 countries with populations in the hundreds and high and medium Human Development Indices. Nonetheless, this triage approach may be impossible to implement as all range states are eligible to sign up to the Memoranda of Understanding developed under the Convention for Migratory Species in expectation that they are eligible for international assistance. 2011-12-07 15:45 How long should we wait to protect critical habitat? Martin, Tara*, CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences; Chades, Iadine, CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences; Possingham, Hugh, CEED, University of Queensland; NCEAS Working Group, Complex Environmental Decisions; Protection of critical habitat – the habitat required for a species’ survival, recovery and persistence - has been identified as an essential step in the recovery and conservation of threatened species. Its protection is also one of the most contentious decisions faced by environmental agencies. Both uncertainty about what constitutes critical habitat and lack of political will to protect critical habitat once identified is crippling the recovery process. We tackle this inertia through the provision of a decision analysis framework which answers the question: how long should we invest in learning about critical habitat for a given species before switching our resources to protecting critical habitat? If we wait too long to protect critical habitat, then a species may go extinct, yet if we make a decision too early based on insufficient knowledge we may protect insufficient or the wrong habitat and again fail to recover and protect the species. We discover that it is rarely optimal to learn for a long time before making a decision to protect critical habitat. In general, as the level of threat to a species increases, the optimal time to learn before making a decision to protect critical habitat decreases. 2011-12-09 10:45 Threat diagnostics: inferring causation from vertebrate population declines Martina Di Fonzo*, Imperial College London and Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London; Ben Collen, Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London; Georgina Mace, Imperial College London; Accurately diagnosing the causes of population decline is paramount to the successful conservation management of vertebrate species. I explore the possibility of identifying the cause of mammal population declines based solely on changes in times-series convexity, using a dataset of 279 populations. First, I use the life-history and population-trend characteristics of species within this dataset to develop a technique which identifies the onset of pressure based on switches in population growth rate. Secondly, I test a method for diagnosing the cause of population decline according to the convexity of its decline-curve and identify broad decline-curve categories that reflect the dynamics of different simulated exploitation regimes. I demonstrate that the onset of constant, proportional harvesting is easier to identify than fixed-quota harvesting and that constant, proportional harvesting and increasing, fixed-quota harvesting are the only pressuretypes that result in consistent decline-curve shapes. These pressures produce declines that best-fit concave, exponential and quadratic, convex functions, respectively. I selected time-series from my dataset upon which to test these methods and show that declines can be classified according to threat-type. This study also identifies the presence of rapid, convex declines as a method for prioritising conservation action. I suggest that “decline concavity” could be used to classify threatened species under IUCN criteria. 103
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Index Benini, Rubens 42 Beniston, M
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Index DeWan, Amielle 14 Dianne Brun
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Index Hilborn, Ray 27 Hill, CM 176
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Index Loutit, R. 116 Louwe Kooijman
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Index Ottewell, K 81 Overton, J 61,
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Index Sequeira, Ana 151 Serebryakov
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Index Winandy, L 181 Winner, J. 112
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