Abstracts available here - Society for Conservation Biology

25th International Congress for Conservation Biology • Auckland, New Zealand • 5-9 December 2011
proportion of the biodiversity of many biomes. Here we address the whole
chain from global climate model (GCM), regional climate model (RCM),
to population dynamics model. We show that the most likely population
decline towards the end of this century is drastic: a reduction of 78%
compared to the reference period. Moreover, there is a more than 50% risk
for the Buxbaumia viridis population to be halved. The conclusion is valid
for all IPCC SRES greenhouse gas emission scenarios investigated. The
uncertainty depends on both natural and model-related sources, in addition
to the three emission scenarios investigated. Ignoring the uncertainties gives
an unwarranted impression of confidence in the results. Our quantification
of probabilities of changes to different population levels is straightforward to
apply in conservation planning and decision making.
the expected increase in the outcome of a decision if uncertainty is resolved;
uncertainty that has a high value of information is uncertainty that impedes
a decision-maker’s ability to choose the best course of action. The calculation
of value of information, however, requires a decision-maker to clearly frame
the decision and explicitly articulate uncertainty. For management of
natural resources in the face of climate change, these are constructive and
healthy challenges because they ground the discussion of uncertainty in the
practical context of how it affects decisions, and they lead to development of
adaptive management that focuses on relevant learning. The use of value of
information to understand uncertainty and design an adaptive management
approach is illustrated in the context of managed relocation, a climate
adaptation strategy for moving species threatened with habitat loss.
2011-12-06 17:15 Using a state-and-transition model to guide costefficient
decision making for woodland restoration
Rumpff, L*, University of Melbourne; Vesk, P.A, University of
Melbourne; Duncan, D.H., Arthur Rylah Institute, Department of
Sustainability and Environment; Keith, D.A., Office of Environment
and Heritage NSW; Wintle, B.A., University of Melbourne;
Despite significant investments in native vegetation management, there
remains substantial uncertainty surrounding the effectiveness and efficiency
of management options. There are increasing demands on natural resource
management (NRM) agencies to demonstrate the environmental benefits
of management to justify the level of investment. Given time and funding
constraints, uncertainties often go unresolved, and NRM agencies continue
to make decisions based on assumptions about best-practice management.
Adaptive management underpinned by quantitative process models can
help test assumptions, and improve cost-efficient decision making as new
information emerges. In this study we present a quantitative state and
transition model (STM) for grassy woodland vegetation dynamics to be used
in an adaptive management strategy. The STM was developed with NRM
practitioners and ecologists, and implemented as a Bayesian network. We
illustrate how the model can be used to identify cost-efficient management
strategies given a set budget, under scenarios of varying land-use history
and climatic conditions. Our experience in developing this model in
collaboration with NRM practitioners indicates that it is a practical
approach to capturing and characterizing expert knowledge about system
dynamics that is useful in setting restoration priorities.
2011-12-08 18:30 Species Distribution Modelling for predicting
migration patterns
Runge, C*, University of Queensland; Possingham, H, University of
Queensland; Fuller, R, University of Queensland;
Migrants across the globe face increasing risks to persistence, as habitat
loss and climate change alter migration routes and phenology. Accurate
mapping of existing and predicted migration patterns is critical for
management of these species, however this is rarely done. We assessed the
usefulness of Species Distribution Models (SDMs) for mapping migration
patterns in Australian land-birds using data sourced from a large volunteercollected
database. Species Distribution Models are a potentially useful tool
in mapping and predicting ecological information, but data unreliability
can limit the applications of this technique. We report on the advantages
and dangers of using Species Distribution Models to make management
decisions.
2011-12-08 12:45 Using the expected value of information to identify
critical uncertainties for adaptive management in the face of climate
change.
Runge, M.C.*, United States Geological Survey;
Uncertainty clouds discussions about climate change, not simply by making
it difficult to predict future outcomes, but also by distracting dialogue away
from the substantive decisions at hand. In political discussions about how
to respond to climate change, all sides use uncertainty to their advantage
(by suggesting different risk tolerances and insisting on different burdens of
proof), with the common outcome that true action is delayed while more
information is gathered, and vague notions of adaptive management are
advanced. The field of decision analysis does provide explicit and useful
tools for analysing and understanding uncertainty, notably a technique
known as the expected value of information. The value of information is
2011-12-06 14:44 Behavioral determinants of pathogen transmission
in wild Ugandan chimpanzees
Rushmore, Julie*, University of Georgia; Matamba, Leopold,
University of Georgia; Stumpf, Becky, University of Illinois, Urbana-
Champaign; Altizer, Sonia, University of Georgia;
In recent decades, infectious diseases have threatened the health and
persistence of Africa’s endangered apes. Social contacts are known to affect
the spread of infectious diseases in humans; however, for wild primates,
data on variation in contact rates among individuals are needed to predict
how social interactions affect pathogen transmission. Our work uses fieldcollected
behavioral data to quantify contact rates and to provide a social
network structure necessary for modeling disease transmission. Over a
10-month study period, we recorded the frequency and type of social
interactions for a community of wild chimpanzees (N=50) in Kibale Forest,
Uganda. Using generalized linear models and social network analysis, we
examined contact variability (for group, close-proximity, and touching
behaviors) among community members and evaluated the importance of
both individual and environmental explanatory variables. Results show a
high degree of heterogeneity in contact rates among community members
and significant effects of age and relatedness on contact between chimpanzees.
Our next step is to simulate transmission dynamics by combining social
network data with infectious disease models. Overall, this work represents a
multi-disciplinary approach to understanding how primate behavior affects
pathogen transmission and will provide information needed to develop
intervention strategies for protecting Africa’s great apes in the event of a
future epidemic.
2011-12-09 11:45 Gene flow barriers for the endangered Northern
Prairie Skink (Plestiodon septentrionalis) in disjunct populations in
Canada
Rutherford, PL*, Brandon University; Sui, J, Queen’s University;
McFadden, WCJ, Brandon University; Hoysak, DJ, Brandon
University; Lougheed, SC, Queen’s University;
Habitat loss, fragmentation and degradation increase geographic isolation
of populations with concomitant reduction in gene flow, and a decrease in
population size with diminution of genetic diversity and reduced probability
of persistence. Northern Prairie Skinks (Plestiodon septentrionalis) exist
in a highly fragmented landscape in southwestern Manitoba, Canada in
a disjunct population at the northern periphery of the species range. The
objective of this study is to determine gene flow barriers in the endangered
Northern Prairie Skink. Animals were captured by hand, measured, sampled
for DNA, and released at their capture location. DNA microsatellites were
amplified by PCR, and six amplified loci showed polymorphism. Data for
91 individuals were analyzed using both Bayesian assignment and spatial
autocorrelation. Spatial assignment revealed two genetic clusters, north and
south of the Assiniboine River implying that the river is a barrier to gene
flow. The spatial autocorrelation analysis implied viscosity of gene flow at
fine geographical scales.
2011-12-07 15:45 Approaches for recruiting and training undergraduate
conservation leaders
Ryan, ME*, Western Washington University; Manolis, J, Minnesota
Department of Natural Resources;
Conservation biology has grown through the work of great leaders, and our
field’s continuing relevance depends on our ability to recruit and train a new
generation of leaders. An explicit discussion of and training in leadership
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