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25th International Congress for Conservation Biology • Auckland, New Zealand • 5-9 December 2011 this paper we show how risk and uncertainty can be accommodated in making optimal spatial conservation decisions. We illustrate these ideas with examples of conservation plans that deal with: uncertainty about cost, uncertainty driven by expert opinion or imprecise statistical models, uncertainty driven by climate change and risk driven by catastrophic events. We show how risk aversion can be readily accommodated in the prioritization process using mathematical concepts and modifications to the software, Marxan. 2011-12-06 15:15 Phylogeography of the brachyotis group of rockwallabies identifies two regions to focus conservation management in northern Australia Potter, S*, The University of Adelaide; Eldridge, MDB, Australian Museum; Taggart, DA, Conservation Ark, Royal Zoological Society of South Australia; Cooper, SJB, South Australian Museum; Northern Australia in recent times has been exposed to human impacts including increased fire frequency and intensity, introduction of the cane toad, mining, cattle grazing and introduction of feral animals. Such issues have cause for concern, with declines in the faunal species and their distributions. A major challenge for implementation of conservation management is understanding the biogeographical processes that have lead to current distributions of genetic diversity without knowledge of past climatic and environmental fluctuations. Utilization of molecular data to answer phylogeographical questions for taxa has been a major development in tackling some of these difficult questions. Here, we used the brachyotis group of rock-wallabies to assess the historical evolutionary and biogeographical processes in northern Australia. Multiple biogeographic barriers across the monsoonal tropics were identified from sequencing three mitochondrial and two nuclear loci. Our results have identified two main regions of past refugia which require focus for future conservation management across this biodiversity hotspot within Australia. In addition, other minor barriers were identified where localized management could be put in place. These results, when compared to previous knowledge, indicate a shared biogeographical history amongst diverse taxa and significant regions for future biodiversity conservation. 2011-12-08 18:30 Genetic Status of 2 Isolated Populations Following a 96% Population Decline Powell, Christopher P*, Central Michigan University; Nelson, Eric, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources; Swanson, Bradley J, Central Michigan University; Sharp-tailed Grouse have declined precipitously throughout their range in the mid-western USA. The species is almost extirpated in Wisconsin and Michigan. Between 1980 and 1995 the Sharp-tailed Grouse in Minnesota declined 95% (n=60,000 to n=2,500) and exists in geographically isolated eastern and western populations. This type of dramatic decline can increase inbreeding and threaten the longevity and adaptability of a population. Using 6 microsatellite loci we evaluated the genetic status of the Sharptailed Grouse following their recent bottleneck. We found genetic evidence for only 1 population in Minnesota. FIS is significantly higher (W=21, p=0.03) in the smaller eastern population (0.29) than in the larger western population (0.04). Observed heterozygosity was high for both populations (east=0.58, west=0.73) and the west was significantly higher than the east (W=0, p=0.03). The program Bottleneck indicated that a bottleneck occurred in the eastern population (p=0.007) but not the western (p=0.05) despite retaining an L-shaped distribution of allele frequency. Our results suggest that the populations have not yet differentiated but likely face genetic difficulties in the near future. We recommend surveys of suitable habitat between populations to assess whether or not individuals are moving. If no movement is found, we recommend reciprocal translocations between populations to prevent differentiation and reduce inbreeding levels. 2011-12-06 11:15 Effect of Forest Age and Burn History on the Recovery of Avian Capture Rates: When is Secondary Tropical Rainforest No Longer a Barrier? Powell, LL*, School of Renewable Resources, Louisiana State University; Stouffer, PC, School of Renewable Resources, Louisiana State University; Johnson, EI, School of Renewable Resources, Louisiana State University; Due to large-scale regeneration following deforestation, Brazil now has more secondary growth than all other tropical countries combined, yet the value of this secondary growth to wildlife remains poorly understood. From 1992—2009, we captured 3534 birds of nine foraging guilds along borders of 1—100 ha rainforest fragments near Manaus, Brazil, with the goal of understanding how birds in the secondary growth/fragment interface recover to pre-isolation capture rates (CRs). Along 0—4 year-old borders, CRs of army ant-followers and terrestrial insectivores were only 1% of pre-isolation levels. Hummingbirds and non-forest species, however, were caught more frequently within four years of cutting; CRs then declined to pre-isolation at 7.0 (+ 6.3, −2.4 SE) and 13.0 years (+5.9, −3.6 SE), respectively. Among the most sensitive guilds, obligate mixed-flock species recovered quicker along borders of larger fragments—6.4 (+14.0, −10.7 SE) years adjacent to 100-ha fragments and 33.0 (+11.0, −8.4 SE) years around 1-ha fragments. After 27 years of forest regeneration at our study site, terrestrial insectivores have yet to recover—we estimate recovery at 46.9 (+20.4, −20.7 SE) years with cutting only, and 54.9 (+45.7, −20.4 SE) years with borders cut and burned. Only 20 years after borders were cut and burned, eight of nine guilds recovered to pre-isolation CRs, but terrestrial insectivores and other species not included in this analysis (because they do not occur at all in forest fragments) probably take decades longer. The largely unbroken primary rainforest surrounding our study site provides a steady source of new colonizers, so we consider these estimates conservative (i.e. optimistic) relative to more fragmented parts of Amazonia. 2011-12-06 11:00 Implications of process-based modelling for biodiversity conservation in a changing world Prentice, IC*, Macquarie University and Imperial College; Modelling assumptions are important in assessing risks to biodiversity and framing conservation policies. Two findings of the past decade are (a) alarming projections of species losses, and (b) that species are already on the move. The first is a pure model result—an untested hypothesis. The second is an observation that tends to refute it. Natural climate changes, similar in magnitude and rate to projected anthropogenic changes, have occurred repeatedly and species’ geographic ranges responded rapidly. Many species showed unexpected persistence through millennia of unfavourable climate. Models must allow for rapid migration (even for sessile organisms) and the role of environmental heterogeneity in species’ survival. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) could make predictions testable against the palaeoecological record. They could explicitly model e.g. range restrictions by exceedance of drought or heat thresholds, or range extensions by overcoming cold limits. They also include effects of atmospheric CO2 concentration on water use and productivity. But current DGVMs were developed for carbon and water cycle applications. Their simplistic treatments of plant biodiversity and habitat heterogeneity severely limit their applications to conservation science. More realistic treatments on the horizon build on major informatics efforts. Meanwhile, hybrid approaches that combine species distribution data with modelling of impact processes may be useful. 2011-12-06 10:30 The plan of the day: managing the dynamic transition from regional-scale conservation design to local-scale conservation action Pressey, R.L.*, James Cook University; Mills, M., James Cook University; Weeks, R., Wildlife Conservation Society; Systematic conservation planning involves sequential transitions. Late in the process, conservation areas on paper or computer screens must be turned into actions on the ground or in the water. This transition has been difficult for conservation planners, demanding reconciliation of two scales of decisionmaking and even two world views. Like all transitions, the one from regional design to local action should be dynamic. Adjustments to designs will be necessary as new information emerges from the action stage, in turn altering areas of interest for action; but coverage of this dynamic feedback in the literature is remarkably rare and brief. Lacking is a comprehensive discussion of why and under what circumstances the dynamic transition from design to action is necessary. Also lacking are guidelines for managing this transition in practice. The premise of this presentation is that conservation planning will be more effective if regional-scale design and local-scale action are better integrated to capitalize on their respective strengths and minimize their respective weaknesses. We review the reasons why designs must change in anticipation of action or as action proceeds, and how these reasons play out differently depending on the purpose and constraints of different 132
25th International Congress for Conservation Biology • Auckland, New Zealand • 5-9 December 2011 planning situations. We then explore the conceptual, operational, policy and institutional implications of the dynamic interaction between design and action, and what these mean for our approaches to planning. 2011-12-09 17:10 Predicting the fate of farmland bird communities under agriculture and climate change scenarios Princé, K.*, Muséum national d’Histoire naturelle - CERSP UMR7204; Jiguet, F., Muséum national d’Histoire naturelle - CERSP UMR7204; Climate and land use drive biodiversity patterns at large scales. Besides, agricultural intensification in recent decades is a major cause of the high current rates of biodiversity loss. Understanding and predicting the responses of biodiversity to climate and agricultural policies changes are crucial to manage the ecological consequences adequately. To that end, we developed scenarios of biodiversity taking into account climate niche predictions and changes in farmland use, as well as possible developments of agricultural policies in France. We created four scenarios of agricultural change: 1) continuing current trends (i.e. overall intensification), 2) biofuel development, 3) return to grasslands and 4) overall agricultural extensification. Using the French Breeding Bird Survey’s data, we assessed the impacts of these scenarios on different indicators: the Farmland Bird Indicator, reflecting abundance changes of a group of species identified as specialist in farmland community; the Species Specialization Index, reflecting the proportion of specialist species in a community, and other indicators linked to phylogenetic or functional diversity. The various indicators provide insight the responses of the different elements of community (e.g. species richness, their trophic link), as well as dynamics of biodiversity as a whole. It is anticipated that declining species or/and species with small ranges will be especially vulnerable to agriculture evolution and climate change. 2011-12-08 18:30 How to mitigate the impacts of the deforestation on the vertebrate fauna in the Brazilian Amazon? Prist, P.*, Sao Paulo University; Michalski, F., Amapa Federal University; Metzger, J.P., Sao Paulo University; Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon occurs creating two distinct landscape configurations: the fish-bone pattern, common to small properties, and the large property pattern, common to livestock farmers. We have analyzed 14 deforested landscapes with similar proportion of forest (~25%) and 7 control areas (~100% of forest cover) to evaluate the effects of these different landscape configurations on vertebrate richness. We linked interview data (n = 150) with forest patch metrics extracted from Landsat images. We found a similar number of species and specialist species and a similar community composition for control areas and large property sites. The overall number of vertebrate species and the number of forest specialist species within the units were negatively affected by the number of fragments and by the isolation age, that were higher in the fish-bone sites. Our results support the idea that in landscapes with low habitat cover landscape configuration is an important predictor of species persistence. To mitigate these impacts we support the current legislation that obliges the maintenance of 80% of forest areas inside private properties. Additionally, we propose the reforestation of degraded areas, connecting forest fragments, and encourage a planned deforestation, allowing the maintenance of forest remnants in aggregated blocks, and thus favoring the maintenance of biodiversity. 2011-12-07 17:45 A portrait of a protected area in distress: insurgency, wildlife decline and local antagonism towards conservation in Similipal Tiger Reserve, India Priya Davidar*, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Pondicherry University; Sasmita Sahoo, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Pondicherry University; Many protected areas in the Central India-Eastern Ghats region with large indigenous populations suffer from insurgency and local antagonism towards conservation. We conducted a questionnaire survey of 217 men and women from indigenous communities in 16 villages within the core and buffer zones of Similipal Tiger Reserve to assess local perceptions of wildlife decline, as indicated by frequency of sightings of tiger and the elephant 20-years, 10-years ago and at present, and attitude towards conservation. About 53% of the respondents supported conservation on the grounds that it was a common heritage of the people, but their support was contingent upon limited (28%) or no cost (80%) to themselves. Among those that opposed conservation, 42% felt that it had been imposed on them. About 64% wanted the PA to be managed by local communities and not by state agencies. Overall, 90% of the respondents agreed with the statement that the tiger and the elephant had disappeared from Similpal, and whereas tiger or elephant were frequent 20-years ago, an average of 90% had not sighted these species recently. They also agreed that the large trees had disappeared over a 20-year period. The problems of conserving forests and wildlife in a hostile landscape should be addressed in greater detail. 2011-12-06 14:15 Modeling highway crossing patterns of red wolves along US 64, North Carolina Proctor, Christine, Dept. of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Tech; Kelly, Marcella, Dept. of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Tech; Vaughan, Michael*, Dept. of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Tech; Esson, Thomas, Dept. of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Tech; Trent, J. Andrew, Dept. of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Tech; Road-related effects on wildlife are a growing concern, particularly for endangered species. Listed as critically endangered by the IUCN, red wolves (Canis rufus) have a current population of ~ 120 individuals. Major roadways heavily bisect the red wolf recovery zone, leading to vehicle collisions and fragmentation. Any current road effects may be amplified by the planned widening of US 64 along 27 miles within the recovery zone. Using GPS collar data from 30 red wolves, we used Brownian bridge movement models to identify which habitat variables best-predicted red wolf crossing locations. Model results were validated through comparison to known crossing sites identified by counting crossings in 0.16 km segments from intensive GPS locations (collected every 30-minutes). Individual crossing rates were compared between sexes and among age classes via a 2-factor ANOVA to determine which sex and/or age is more vulnerable to road related impacts. Brownian bridge models indicated that the presence of agricultural land, upland forest, and a canal crossing structure (i.e. dike) best predicted where a red wolf chooses to cross US 64. While no difference in crossing rates were found between sexes, sub-adults were found to cross roadways at a higher rate compared to other age classes. These results can guide the placement of mitigating structures during highway expansion and identify which land uses will increase the success of road crossing structures. 2011-12-09 11:15 The win-win services of Australia’s vulnerable top predator, the dingo Prowse, TAA*, Environment Institute, University of Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia; Brook, BW, Environment Institute, University of Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia; Lacy, RC, Chicago Zoological Society, Brookfield, Illinois, 60513, USA; Johnson, CN, School of Zoology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, 7001, Australia; Australian small mammal populations are declining. Dingoes, classified as ‘vulnerable’ in their own right, indirectly benefit small mammals by controlling feral mesopredators but they are baited throughout Australian cattle country because of the perceived threat they pose to young calves. In this regard, conservation goals are seemingly at odds with economic interests. Without a top predator, however, inflated kangaroo abundances can reduce cattle condition and fecundity through competition for pasture, despite an annual kangaroo harvest of 15-20%. Healthy dingo populations can substantially reduce kangaroo density and may actually improve profit margins. Assuming typical cattle stocking and management scenarios, we constructed a dynamic ‘meta-model’ consisting of stochastic, individualbased population models for dingoes, kangaroos and cattle, linked through realistic functional responses, and underpinned by a climate-driven model of pasture growth. The cattle model was built on established metabolic relationships between pasture biomass and rates of growth, maintenance and pregnancy. Through a combination of scenario testing and sensitivity analysis, we show that the cessation of dingo baiting should increase the profitability of beef production. This conclusion is robust to uncertainty in the rate of dingo predation on calves as well as in climate change scenarios. Dingoes may represent a net benefit to the twin goals of beef production and mammal conservation. 133
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Index Benini, Rubens 42 Beniston, M
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Index DeWan, Amielle 14 Dianne Brun
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Index Hilborn, Ray 27 Hill, CM 176
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Index Loutit, R. 116 Louwe Kooijman
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Index Ottewell, K 81 Overton, J 61,
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Index Sequeira, Ana 151 Serebryakov
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Index Winandy, L 181 Winner, J. 112
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