Distributed Renewable Energy Operating Impacts and Valuation Study

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Section 2 Figure 2-24: Daylighting and SHW Payback – High Penetration Case 30 25 Payback (Years) 20 15 10 5 Small Office Large Grocery Warehouse School Gym Large Retail Residential SHW 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 In the High Penetration Case for daylighting and SHW, the payback is calculated to be approximately two years for SHW and range from about 7 to 16 years in the initial portion of the Study (2008), depending on customer groups. However, in this case, the payback decreases in the later years as the federal tax incentives remain in place and the retail electric tariffs increase greater than inflation. 2-46 R. W. Beck, Inc. Arizona Public Service
Solar Characterization Figure 2-25: Daylighting and SHW Payback - Medium Penetration Case 30 25 Payback (Years) 20 15 10 5 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Small Office Large Grocery Warehouse School Gym Large Retail Residential SHW In the Medium Penetration Case for daylighting and SHW, the payback is calculated to be the same as the previous cases for the initial portion of the Study (2008), depending on customer groups. However, in this case, the payback remains the same for the daylighting as with the High Penetration Case, but increases for the residential SHW, due to the reduction in the federal tax incentives. 2.5.3 Modeling Results The modeling reveals payback to be one of the key factors in technology diffusion. Using the assumptions of the High Penetration Case, the years required for payback decline rapidly and diffusion increases significantly. In the Low Penetration Case, the opposite occurs; the years for payback increase, inhibiting technology adoption. Key Findings from Market Simulation Modeling • Under the High Penetration Case for the residential technologies, the program exceeds the RES goals for those technologies. • Under the Low Penetration Case for the residential technologies, the program falls far short of the RES goals for those technologies. • Under the High Penetration Case for the commercial technologies, the program exceeds the RES goals for those technologies. • Under the Low Penetration Case for the commercial technologies, the program falls far short of the RES goals for those technologies. Distributed Renewable Energy Operating Impacts & Valuation Study R. W. Beck, Inc. 2-47
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PREPARED FOR: ARIZONA PUBLIC SERVIC
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CONTENTS List of Tables............
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Contents 5. Technical Value - Power
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Contents TABLES 1-1 RES Eligible Te
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Contents FIGURES 1-1 RES Compliance
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5-6 Typical Output, Single-Axis Tra
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Abundant sunshine
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Executive Summary many uncertaintie
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Executive Summary In contrast to al
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Executive Summary Capital Reduction
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Executive Summary Annual Energy and
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Executive Summary commercial custom
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Executive Summary Creation of a suc
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SECTION 1 — STUDY BACKGROUND AND
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Study Background and Description 1.
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Study Background and Description in
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Study Background and Description Fi
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Study Background and Description SH
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Study Background and Description Ta
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Study Background and Description Fi
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Study Background and Description 1.
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Study Background and Description AP
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Study Background and Description cu
Page 49 and 50: Study Background and Description Fi
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Page 56 and 57: Section 2 and commercial customers.
Page 58 and 59: Section 2 Figure 2-2: Photovoltaic
Page 60 and 61: Section 2 When weighted by capacity
Page 62 and 63: Section 2 PV Model Inputs Two basel
Page 64 and 65: Section 2 Figure 2-5: Phoenix Area
Page 66 and 67: Section 2 Figure 2-7: Typical Sprin
Page 68 and 69: Section 2 account shading at the ho
Page 70 and 71: Section 2 • Residential: • A so
Page 72 and 73: Section 2 • Thermosyphon systems
Page 74 and 75: Section 2 existing systems installe
Page 76 and 77: Section 2 Figure 2-12: Hourly SHW S
Page 78 and 79: Section 2 Figure 2-14: Active Dayli
Page 80 and 81: Section 2 Daylighting Costs Capital
Page 82 and 83: Section 2 • An interior diffusion
Page 84 and 85: Section 2 Key Findings of Commercia
Page 86 and 87: Section 2 2.5 Deployment Analysis 2
Page 88 and 89: Section 2 Table 2-11 Residential PV
Page 90 and 91: Section 2 Commercial PV PV systems
Page 92 and 93: Section 2 was conceived by Frank Ba
Page 94 and 95: Section 2 Kastovich. 36 The formula
Page 96 and 97: Section 2 Figure 2-20: PV Payback -
Page 98 and 99: Section 2 Figure 2-22: PV Payback -
Page 102 and 103: Section 2 • The forecast of the a
Page 104 and 105: Section 2 Results of Market Simulat
Page 107 and 108: SECTION 3 — TECHNICAL VALUE - DIS
Page 109 and 110: Technical Value - Distribution Syst
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Page 142 and 143: Section 4 Both of these benefits ar
Page 144 and 145: Section 4 decrease both real and re
Page 146 and 147: Section 4 • A simplifying assumpt
Page 148 and 149: Section 4 Results The effects of as
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Section 4 may have excess schedulin
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Section 4 4.3.2 Local Reliability/R
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Section 4 Figure 4-3: $110 Million
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Section 4 Figure 4-4: Historical PV
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Section 4 Figure 4-6: Historical PV
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SECTION 5 — TECHNICAL VALUE - POW
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Technical Value - Power Supply Capa
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Section 6 Value is also viewed and
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Section 6 6.2.2 Approach to Identif
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Section 6 Table 6-1 Levelized Carry
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Section 6 6.4.2 Summary of Quantita
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Section 6 Table 6-4 Capital Cost Re
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Section 6 Table 6-6 Total Solar DE
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Section 6 savings for the High Pene
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Section 6 6.4.7 Fixed and Variable
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Section 6 current demand, but assum
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Section 6 legislation and regulatio
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Section 6 The expansion of “green
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Section 6 solar DE development over
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Section 6 • Provide financing - M
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Section 6 6.8 Conclusions The winni
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Appendix A solar incidence: solar t
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APPENDIX B — CALIFORNIA PV PROGRA
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CALIFORNIA PV PROGRAM Figure B-2. C
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CALIFORNIA PV PROGRAM largest avera
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CALIFORNIA PV PROGRAM The data show
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CALIFORNIA PV PROGRAM The following
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CALIFORNIA PV PROGRAM Figure B-6. H
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Appendix C The price of an SREC is
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Appendix C Figure C-3. Average Cost
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Appendix C Figure C-6. Average Cost
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Appendix C C.2.5 Government Facilit
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Appendix C Figure C-14. Average Cap
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Appendix C Figure C-16. Total Numbe
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APPENDIX D — CUSTOMER USE CHARACT
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Customer Use Characteristics by Sel
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APPENDIX E — MONTHLY LOAD PROFILE
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Monthly Load Profiles by Selected A
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APPENDIX F — PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEM
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Photovoltaic system modeling Figure
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Photovoltaic system modeling - One-
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Appendix G The SRCC provides estima
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Appendix H Equipment Qualifications
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Appendix I Table I-3 Residential Ch
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Appendix J APS Incentive Schedules
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DISTRIBUTED ENERGY ADMINISTRATION P
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DISTRIBUTED ENERGY ADMINISTRATION P
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Appendix K DSS Study - Distribution
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Overview • EPRI was contracted by
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Circuit Model © 2008 Electric Powe
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Modeling Assumptions • Distributi
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Procedures After Model Conversion
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Load Models • Individual customer
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Loss Impact Analysis © 2008 Electr
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Sample Residential Solar Curves 3.0
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Hourly Average Load and Solar Curve
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Base Case Results: No Solar 12000 T
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Case 1 Results: Business as Usual 1
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Loss Analysis Results Summary Base
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Reduction in 2007 Peak Load 2007 Pe
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Voltage Regulation © 2008 Electric
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ADEQ: Fixed Horizontal commercial P
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SOL_Desert: Fixed Latitude (residen
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Voltage Regulation Model • Same b
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Total PV Power Input Total PV Power
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Effect of PV Power on Phase Current
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Deviation between Voltage Profile 0
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Greenfield Results with Manually Ed
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Effect of Edited PV Profile on Tota
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Effect of Edited PV Profile on Volt
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APPENDIX L — MODEL RESULTS Figure
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Model Results Figure L-5. Residenti
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Model Results Figure L-9. Residenti
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Model Results Figure L-13. Resident
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Model Results Figure L-17. Resident
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Model Results Figure L-21. Commerci
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Model Results Figure L-25. Commerci
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Model Results Figure L-29. Large Co
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Model Results Figure L-33. Solar Ho
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Model Results Figure L-49. Cactus A
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Model Results Figure L-53. East Val
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Model Results Figure L-57. East Val
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Model Results Figure L-61. Galvin P
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Model Results Figure L-65. Javalina
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Model Results Figure L-69. Pioneer
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Model Results Figure L-73. Thompson
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Model Results Figure L-77. DE Impac
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Appendix M Figure M-2. Power Factor
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Appendix M Table M-1 Data Points fo
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Appendix M Figure M-6. Zoomed Plot
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Appendix M Figure M-10. Plot of Tra
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Appendix M • I harmonic number: 3
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Appendix M • File ending: Bad •
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Appendix M Table M-7 Limit Setups V
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Appendix N Evaluation of Economic V
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Appendix N N.3 Economic Value of Ca
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Distributed Renewable Energy Operat
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Calculation of APS Carrying Charges
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Calculation of APS Carrying Charges
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Distributed Renewable Energy Operating Impacts and Valuation Study

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