Distributed Renewable Energy Operating Impacts and Valuation Study

Solar Characterization
Figure 2-25: Daylighting and SHW Payback - Medium Penetration Case
30
25
Payback (Years)
20
15
10
5
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Small Office
Large Grocery
Warehouse
School Gym
Large Retail
Residential SHW
In the Medium Penetration Case for daylighting and SHW, the payback is calculated to be the
same as the previous cases for the initial portion of the Study (2008), depending on customer
groups. However, in this case, the payback remains the same for the daylighting as with the
High Penetration Case, but increases for the residential SHW, due to the reduction in the federal
tax incentives.
2.5.3 Modeling Results
The modeling reveals payback to be one of the key factors in technology diffusion. Using the
assumptions of the High Penetration Case, the years required for payback decline rapidly and
diffusion increases significantly. In the Low Penetration Case, the opposite occurs; the years for
payback increase, inhibiting technology adoption.
Key Findings from Market Simulation Modeling
• Under the High Penetration Case for the residential technologies, the program exceeds the
RES goals for those technologies.
• Under the Low Penetration Case for the residential technologies, the program falls far short
of the RES goals for those technologies.
• Under the High Penetration Case for the commercial technologies, the program exceeds
the RES goals for those technologies.
• Under the Low Penetration Case for the commercial technologies, the program falls far
short of the RES goals for those technologies.
Distributed Renewable Energy Operating Impacts & Valuation Study R. W. Beck, Inc. 2-47