Distributed Renewable Energy Operating Impacts and Valuation Study

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Section 4 Figure 4-3: $110 Million (500 MW) Transmission System Infrastructure Investment Years Single-Axis Sensitivity 2012 2015 2016 2018 2020 2023 2025 High Penetration Case 2012 2015 2016 2018 2020 2023 2025 Medium Penetration Case 2012 2015 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2025 Low Penetration Case 2012 2015 2016 2018 2020 2021 2023 2025 Existing Condition 2012 2015 2016 2018 2020 2021 2023 2025 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Number (and Year) of 500 MW Transmission System Upgrades In Figure 4-3, the “Existing Condition” represents the projected number (and year) of 500 MW transmission system upgrades currently estimated by APS. The results of the Study indicate that the Low Penetration Case does not meet the “threshold” for being able to defer a transmission upgrade by one year, and therefore achieves no benefit from DCT. This is indicated in the figure above as the projected number (and year) of transmission upgrades for the Low Penetration Case is identical to those projected for the Existing Condition. The Medium Penetration Case is marginal in its impact, but does succeed at deferring one transmission system upgrade from 2021 to 2022, and another from 2023 to 2024. However, the Medium Penetration Case ends up with the same number of upgrades at the end of the projection, 2025, as the Existing Condition (a total of eight upgrades). The High Penetration Case and the single-axis sensitivity both defer one transmission investment from 2021 to beyond the forecast horizon. As can be seen from the Table 4-5 and Figure 4-3 above, the single-axis tracking does not result in any additional value compared to the High Penetration Case (the increase in DCT from 603 MW to 622 MW is too small to result in any additional deferrals). This is in part because for both the High Penetration Case and the single-axis sensitivity, the peak load hour was “pushed” to 6:00 PM (18:00 in Table 4-5), when the sun is setting. The results for the Yuma example (not shown) indicate that the Low Penetration Case has no DCT benefits on the sub-transmission system. The Medium and High Penetration Cases and the single-axis sensitivity all resulted in one $7 million, 30 MW sub-transmission investment deferral to beyond the forecast horizon. Again, as with the system-level review, the increased output associated with the single-axis sensitivity had no discernable increase in DCT value. 4-14 R. W. Beck, Inc. Arizona Public Service
Technical Value – Transmission System 4.4 Potential Detrimental Impacts to Transient Stability and Spinning Reserve The PV inverters are designed to turn disconnect the PV systems for low voltage events due to safety reasons. If a failure on the distribution system occurs, causing an outage on the distribution system, there is a concern that the PVs could “back-feed” to the distribution system when utility operations personnel are working on the line. Therefore, it is necessary to turn off the PVs to prevent this back-feed. This necessary design for safety reasons on the distribution system can have a detrimental impact on the transmission system. A fault on the 500-kV system can depress voltages throughout the Phoenix area. If the drop in voltage is significant, and if the duration of the low voltage event is long enough, many PV inverters may turn off simultaneously (potentially hundreds of megawatts with full adoption). This may result in two potential concerns: • Potential impact on spinning reserve requirements • Potential decreased transient stability performance The results of the analysis found that there were no impacts to spinning reserve requirements, and that detrimental impacts to transient stability performance were minor. As a result, no negative value was quantified for either of these effects. The analyses to support these conclusions are described below. 4.4.1 Potential Impacts to Spinning Reserve Requirements To evaluate the potential detrimental impacts on spinning reserve requirements, a scenario where a 500-kV fault occurred on the high side of the generator step-up transformer on one of the three Palo Verde units was theorized (Palo Verde is a 3,200-MW nuclear-fueled generating station that is partially owned by APS). Such an event could not only cause a loss a Palo Verde unit, but also hundreds of megawatts of PV, thereby potentially increasing spinning reserve requirements. In order to test the hypothesis, a review of historical events was conducted to determine if those events caused extensive loss of the existing APS PV installations. Three historical events were analyzed: • June 14, 2004 fault at the West Wing 500-kV substation with a failure of a protection system. • July 4, 2004 fault at the West Wing 500-kV substation due to a fire. • July 20, 2004 fault at the Deer Valley 230-kV substation. The June 14, 2004 fault on the 500-kV system at the West Wing 500-kV substation was a slow cleared fault, meaning that there were multiple contingencies causing the low voltage event to be sustained on the 500-kV system for a longer duration than for a single contingency. Figure 4-4 shows the behavior of the existing PV systems at the time of the fault (7:45 AM). The six facilities in the figures below represent existing APS systems which have sophisticated metering equipment on them to record 10-minute interval data. The point of the figures below is to indicate the impact to these systems as a result of fault events. Distributed Renewable Energy Operating Impacts & Valuation Study R. W. Beck, Inc. 4-15
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PREPARED FOR: ARIZONA PUBLIC SERVIC
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CONTENTS List of Tables............
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Contents 5. Technical Value - Power
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Contents TABLES 1-1 RES Eligible Te
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Contents FIGURES 1-1 RES Compliance
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5-6 Typical Output, Single-Axis Tra
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Abundant sunshine
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Executive Summary many uncertaintie
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Executive Summary In contrast to al
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Executive Summary Capital Reduction
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Executive Summary Annual Energy and
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Executive Summary commercial custom
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Executive Summary Creation of a suc
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SECTION 1 — STUDY BACKGROUND AND
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Study Background and Description 1.
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Study Background and Description in
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Study Background and Description Fi
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Study Background and Description SH
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Study Background and Description Ta
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Study Background and Description 1.
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Study Background and Description AP
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Study Background and Description cu
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Study Background and Description to
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Study Background and Description in
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Section 2 and commercial customers.
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Section 2 Figure 2-2: Photovoltaic
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Section 2 When weighted by capacity
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Section 2 PV Model Inputs Two basel
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Section 2 Figure 2-5: Phoenix Area
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Section 2 Figure 2-7: Typical Sprin
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Section 2 account shading at the ho
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Section 2 • Residential: • A so
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Section 2 • Thermosyphon systems
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Section 2 existing systems installe
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Section 2 Figure 2-12: Hourly SHW S
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Section 2 Figure 2-14: Active Dayli
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Section 2 Daylighting Costs Capital
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Section 2 • An interior diffusion
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Section 2 Key Findings of Commercia
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Section 2 2.5 Deployment Analysis 2
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Section 2 Table 2-11 Residential PV
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Section 2 Commercial PV PV systems
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Section 2 was conceived by Frank Ba
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Section 2 Kastovich. 36 The formula
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Section 2 Figure 2-20: PV Payback -
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Section 2 Figure 2-22: PV Payback -
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Section 2 Figure 2-24: Daylighting
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Section 2 • The forecast of the a
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Page 107 and 108: SECTION 3 — TECHNICAL VALUE - DIS
Page 109 and 110: Technical Value - Distribution Syst
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Page 142 and 143: Section 4 Both of these benefits ar
Page 144 and 145: Section 4 decrease both real and re
Page 146 and 147: Section 4 • A simplifying assumpt
Page 148 and 149: Section 4 Results The effects of as
Page 150 and 151: Section 4 may have excess schedulin
Page 152 and 153: Section 4 4.3.2 Local Reliability/R
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Page 161 and 162: SECTION 5 — TECHNICAL VALUE - POW
Page 163 and 164: Technical Value - Power Supply Capa
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Page 190 and 191: Section 6 Value is also viewed and
Page 192 and 193: Section 6 6.2.2 Approach to Identif
Page 194 and 195: Section 6 Table 6-1 Levelized Carry
Page 196 and 197: Section 6 6.4.2 Summary of Quantita
Page 198 and 199: Section 6 Table 6-4 Capital Cost Re
Page 200 and 201: Section 6 Table 6-6 Total Solar DE
Page 202 and 203: Section 6 savings for the High Pene
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Section 6 6.4.7 Fixed and Variable
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Section 6 current demand, but assum
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Section 6 legislation and regulatio
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Section 6 The expansion of “green
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Section 6 solar DE development over
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Section 6 • Provide financing - M
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Section 6 6.8 Conclusions The winni
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Appendix A solar incidence: solar t
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APPENDIX B — CALIFORNIA PV PROGRA
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CALIFORNIA PV PROGRAM Figure B-2. C
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CALIFORNIA PV PROGRAM largest avera
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CALIFORNIA PV PROGRAM The data show
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CALIFORNIA PV PROGRAM The following
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CALIFORNIA PV PROGRAM Figure B-6. H
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Appendix C The price of an SREC is
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Appendix C Figure C-3. Average Cost
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Appendix C Figure C-6. Average Cost
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Appendix C C.2.5 Government Facilit
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Appendix C Figure C-14. Average Cap
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Appendix C Figure C-16. Total Numbe
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APPENDIX D — CUSTOMER USE CHARACT
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Customer Use Characteristics by Sel
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APPENDIX E — MONTHLY LOAD PROFILE
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Monthly Load Profiles by Selected A
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APPENDIX F — PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEM
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Photovoltaic system modeling Figure
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Photovoltaic system modeling - One-
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Appendix G The SRCC provides estima
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Appendix H Equipment Qualifications
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Appendix I Table I-3 Residential Ch
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Appendix J APS Incentive Schedules
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DISTRIBUTED ENERGY ADMINISTRATION P
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DISTRIBUTED ENERGY ADMINISTRATION P
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Appendix K DSS Study - Distribution
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Overview • EPRI was contracted by
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Circuit Model © 2008 Electric Powe
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Modeling Assumptions • Distributi
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Procedures After Model Conversion
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Load Models • Individual customer
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Loss Impact Analysis © 2008 Electr
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Sample Residential Solar Curves 3.0
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Hourly Average Load and Solar Curve
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Base Case Results: No Solar 12000 T
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Case 1 Results: Business as Usual 1
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Loss Analysis Results Summary Base
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Reduction in 2007 Peak Load 2007 Pe
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Voltage Regulation © 2008 Electric
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ADEQ: Fixed Horizontal commercial P
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SOL_Desert: Fixed Latitude (residen
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Voltage Regulation Model • Same b
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Total PV Power Input Total PV Power
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Effect of PV Power on Phase Current
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Deviation between Voltage Profile 0
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Greenfield Results with Manually Ed
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Effect of Edited PV Profile on Tota
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Effect of Edited PV Profile on Volt
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APPENDIX L — MODEL RESULTS Figure
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Model Results Figure L-5. Residenti
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Model Results Figure L-9. Residenti
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Model Results Figure L-13. Resident
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Model Results Figure L-17. Resident
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Model Results Figure L-21. Commerci
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Model Results Figure L-25. Commerci
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Model Results Figure L-29. Large Co
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Model Results Figure L-33. Solar Ho
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Model Results Figure L-49. Cactus A
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Model Results Figure L-53. East Val
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Model Results Figure L-57. East Val
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Model Results Figure L-61. Galvin P
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Model Results Figure L-65. Javalina
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Model Results Figure L-69. Pioneer
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Model Results Figure L-73. Thompson
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Model Results Figure L-77. DE Impac
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Appendix M Figure M-2. Power Factor
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Appendix M Table M-1 Data Points fo
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Appendix M Figure M-6. Zoomed Plot
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Appendix M Figure M-10. Plot of Tra
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Appendix M • I harmonic number: 3
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Appendix M • File ending: Bad •
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Appendix M Table M-7 Limit Setups V
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Appendix N Evaluation of Economic V
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Appendix N N.3 Economic Value of Ca
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Distributed Renewable Energy Operat
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Calculation of APS Carrying Charges
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Calculation of APS Carrying Charges
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