Distributed Renewable Energy Operating Impacts and Valuation Study

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Contents 2-26 Residential Market Potential – High Penetration Case ..................... 2-48 2-27 Residential Market Potential – Low Penetration Case...................... 2-49 2-28 Residential Market Potential – Medium Penetration Case................ 2-49 2-29 Commercial Market Potential – High Penetration Case ................... 2-50 2-30 Commercial Market Potential – Low Penetration Case .................... 2-51 2-31 Commercial Market Potential – Medium Penetration Case.............. 2-51 3-1 Power System...................................................................................... 3-2 3-2 Feeder-All Loss Analysis .................................................................... 3-6 3-3 Example Depiction of Peak Load Day and Peak Solar Output......... 3-10 3-4 Thompson Peak Substation Annual Peak Demand Savings ............. 3-16 3-5 Residential 85020 Annual Peak Demand Savings ............................ 3-22 3-6 Solar Hot Water Annual Peak Demand Savings............................... 3-24 3-7 Chaparral Feeders Annual Peak Demand Savings............................ 3-26 3-8 Substation Screening-Level Analysis Summary ............................... 3-27 3-9 Effects of Two-and Four-Hour Storage on Fixed PV ....................... 3-28 3-10 Effects of Two- and Four-Hour Storage on PV with Single-Axis Tracking............................................................................................. 3-28 3-11 Effect of Clouds on PV Generation................................................... 3-30 3-12 Cloud Impact during Peak Load Days .............................................. 3-31 4-1 Load Curve for July 18, 2007, the Peak Load Day for 2007 on APS’s System.................................................................................... 4-10 4-2 Normalized Forecast of Peak Load Day and Peak Solar Output in the Summer of 2025 ...................................................................... 4-11 4-3 $110 Million (500 MW) Transmission System Infrastructure Investment Years............................................................................... 4-14 4-4 Historical PV Output from Various Existing PV Installations for the Event of June 14, 2004 ................................................................ 4-16 4-5 Historical PV Output (kW) From Various Existing PV Installations for the Event of July 4, 2004......................................... 4-17 4-6 Historical PV Output (kW) From Various Existing PV Installations for the Event of July 20, 2004....................................... 4-18 5-1 Coincidence of Solar DE Output with the APS System Load Shape, Solar DE at 10% of Peak ......................................................... 5-6 5-2 Diminishing Value of Solar DE Capacity ........................................... 5-9 5-3 Typical Summer Day Dispatch, APS Base Case & Low Penetration Case, 2025...................................................................... 5-19 5-4 Typical Summer Day Dispatch, APS Base Case & High Penetration Case, 2025...................................................................... 5-20 5-5 Typical Winter Day Dispatch, APS Base Case & High Penetration Case, 2025...................................................................... 5-21 x R. W. Beck, Inc. Arizona Public Service
5-6 Typical Output, Single–Axis Tracking PV, Multiple Days, 10- Minute Interval.................................................................................. 5-25 5-7 Typical Output, Fixed Plate PV, Multiple Days, 10-Minute Interval............................................................................................... 5-26 6-1 Quantification of Savings.................................................................... 6-3 6-2 Elements of APS’s Solar DE Savings in 2025.................................. 6-14 6-3 Total Solar DE MWh Production Compared to RES Goal............... 6-22 6-4 Annual Residential and Commercial Gap against RES Goal............ 6-23 6-5 Market Adoption Curves for Solar DE Technologies....................... 6-27 Distributed Renewable Energy Operating Impacts & Valuation Study R. W. Beck, Inc. xi
Page 1: PREPARED FOR: ARIZONA PUBLIC SERVIC
Page 5 and 6: CONTENTS List of Tables............
Page 7 and 8: Contents 5. Technical Value - Power
Page 9 and 10: Contents TABLES 1-1 RES Eligible Te
Page 11: Contents FIGURES 1-1 RES Compliance
Page 15 and 16: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Abundant sunshine
Page 17 and 18: Executive Summary many uncertaintie
Page 19 and 20: Executive Summary In contrast to al
Page 21 and 22: Executive Summary Capital Reduction
Page 23 and 24: Executive Summary Annual Energy and
Page 25 and 26: Executive Summary commercial custom
Page 27 and 28: Executive Summary Creation of a suc
Page 29 and 30: SECTION 1 — STUDY BACKGROUND AND
Page 31 and 32: Study Background and Description 1.
Page 33 and 34: Study Background and Description in
Page 35 and 36: Study Background and Description Fi
Page 37 and 38: Study Background and Description SH
Page 39 and 40: Study Background and Description Ta
Page 43 and 44: Study Background and Description 1.
Page 45 and 46: Study Background and Description AP
Page 47 and 48: Study Background and Description cu
Page 51 and 52: Study Background and Description to
Page 53: Study Background and Description in
Page 56 and 57: Section 2 and commercial customers.
Page 58 and 59: Section 2 Figure 2-2: Photovoltaic
Page 60 and 61: Section 2 When weighted by capacity
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Section 2 PV Model Inputs Two basel
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Section 2 Figure 2-5: Phoenix Area
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Section 2 Figure 2-7: Typical Sprin
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Section 2 account shading at the ho
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Section 2 • Residential: • A so
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Section 2 • Thermosyphon systems
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Section 2 existing systems installe
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Section 2 Figure 2-12: Hourly SHW S
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Section 2 Figure 2-14: Active Dayli
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Section 2 Daylighting Costs Capital
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Section 2 • An interior diffusion
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Section 2 Key Findings of Commercia
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Section 2 2.5 Deployment Analysis 2
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Section 2 Table 2-11 Residential PV
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Section 2 Commercial PV PV systems
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Section 2 was conceived by Frank Ba
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Section 2 Kastovich. 36 The formula
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Section 2 Figure 2-20: PV Payback -
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Section 2 Figure 2-22: PV Payback -
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Section 2 Figure 2-24: Daylighting
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Section 2 • The forecast of the a
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Section 2 Results of Market Simulat
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SECTION 3 — TECHNICAL VALUE - DIS
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Technical Value - Distribution Syst
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Section 4 Both of these benefits ar
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Section 4 decrease both real and re
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Section 4 • A simplifying assumpt
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Section 4 Results The effects of as
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Section 4 may have excess schedulin
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Section 4 4.3.2 Local Reliability/R
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Section 4 Figure 4-3: $110 Million
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Section 4 Figure 4-4: Historical PV
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Section 4 Figure 4-6: Historical PV
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SECTION 5 — TECHNICAL VALUE - POW
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Technical Value - Power Supply Capa
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Section 6 Value is also viewed and
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Section 6 6.2.2 Approach to Identif
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Section 6 Table 6-1 Levelized Carry
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Section 6 6.4.2 Summary of Quantita
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Section 6 Table 6-4 Capital Cost Re
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Section 6 Table 6-6 Total Solar DE
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Section 6 savings for the High Pene
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Section 6 6.4.7 Fixed and Variable
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Section 6 current demand, but assum
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Section 6 legislation and regulatio
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Section 6 The expansion of “green
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Section 6 solar DE development over
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Section 6 • Provide financing - M
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Section 6 6.8 Conclusions The winni
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Appendix A solar incidence: solar t
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APPENDIX B — CALIFORNIA PV PROGRA
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CALIFORNIA PV PROGRAM Figure B-2. C
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CALIFORNIA PV PROGRAM largest avera
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CALIFORNIA PV PROGRAM The data show
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CALIFORNIA PV PROGRAM The following
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CALIFORNIA PV PROGRAM Figure B-6. H
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Appendix C The price of an SREC is
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Appendix C Figure C-3. Average Cost
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Appendix C Figure C-6. Average Cost
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Appendix C C.2.5 Government Facilit
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Appendix C Figure C-14. Average Cap
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Appendix C Figure C-16. Total Numbe
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APPENDIX D — CUSTOMER USE CHARACT
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Customer Use Characteristics by Sel
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APPENDIX E — MONTHLY LOAD PROFILE
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Monthly Load Profiles by Selected A
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APPENDIX F — PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEM
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Photovoltaic system modeling Figure
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Photovoltaic system modeling - One-
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Appendix G The SRCC provides estima
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Appendix H Equipment Qualifications
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Appendix I Table I-3 Residential Ch
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Appendix J APS Incentive Schedules
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DISTRIBUTED ENERGY ADMINISTRATION P
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DISTRIBUTED ENERGY ADMINISTRATION P
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Appendix K DSS Study - Distribution
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Overview • EPRI was contracted by
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Circuit Model © 2008 Electric Powe
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Modeling Assumptions • Distributi
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Procedures After Model Conversion
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Load Models • Individual customer
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Loss Impact Analysis © 2008 Electr
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Sample Residential Solar Curves 3.0
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Hourly Average Load and Solar Curve
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Base Case Results: No Solar 12000 T
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Case 1 Results: Business as Usual 1
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Loss Analysis Results Summary Base
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Reduction in 2007 Peak Load 2007 Pe
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Voltage Regulation © 2008 Electric
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ADEQ: Fixed Horizontal commercial P
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SOL_Desert: Fixed Latitude (residen
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Voltage Regulation Model • Same b
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Total PV Power Input Total PV Power
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Effect of PV Power on Phase Current
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Deviation between Voltage Profile 0
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Greenfield Results with Manually Ed
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Effect of Edited PV Profile on Tota
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Effect of Edited PV Profile on Volt
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APPENDIX L — MODEL RESULTS Figure
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Model Results Figure L-5. Residenti
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Model Results Figure L-9. Residenti
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Model Results Figure L-13. Resident
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Model Results Figure L-17. Resident
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Model Results Figure L-21. Commerci
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Model Results Figure L-25. Commerci
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Model Results Figure L-29. Large Co
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Model Results Figure L-33. Solar Ho
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Model Results Figure L-49. Cactus A
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Model Results Figure L-53. East Val
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Model Results Figure L-57. East Val
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Model Results Figure L-61. Galvin P
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Model Results Figure L-65. Javalina
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Model Results Figure L-69. Pioneer
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Model Results Figure L-73. Thompson
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Model Results Figure L-77. DE Impac
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Appendix M Figure M-2. Power Factor
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Appendix M Table M-1 Data Points fo
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Appendix M Figure M-6. Zoomed Plot
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Appendix M Figure M-10. Plot of Tra
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Appendix M • I harmonic number: 3
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Appendix M • File ending: Bad •
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Appendix M Table M-7 Limit Setups V
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Appendix N Evaluation of Economic V
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Appendix N N.3 Economic Value of Ca
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Distributed Renewable Energy Operat
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Calculation of APS Carrying Charges
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Calculation of APS Carrying Charges
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