Distributed Renewable Energy Operating Impacts and Valuation Study

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Section 3 • In many cases, no demand reduction occurs because the customer’s load peaks after the time of solar generation. • The analysis also indicates that south-facing PV resulted in slightly higher demand reduction and energy savings than southeast- or southwest-oriented systems, although results varied with each customer. • Rarely did customer demand savings exceed 10 percent, regardless of the size of the solar DE system installed, due to non-coincidence of the customer peak and solar generation peak; therefore, reduction in residential customer equipment sizing is not warranted. Figure 3-5: Residential 85020 Annual Peak Demand Savings Residential - 85020 12% Annual Peak Demand Savings (%) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Peak Demand (kW): Res_01 = 12 Res_02 = 10 Res_03 = 9 Res_04 = 18 Res_05 = 12 1 S Fixed Peak Demand Savings 1 SE Fixed Peak Demand Savings 1 SW Fixed Peak Demand Savings -2% 2 kW 3 kW 4 kW 5 kW 6 kW 7 kW 8 kW PV Capacity Options _____ Note: Each line represents the annual peak savings at various PV capacity options for one or more specific customer (see legend to list of customers and their peak demands). See text for more discussion. Reductions in energy were also analyzed; however, energy reductions do not support the value source associated with reduction in equipment sizing. As mentioned above, equipment is sized based on peak demand, not energy. The results of the screening analysis (for both demand and energy) for each customer are summarized by zip code in Appendix L. Commercial PV The results of the commercial PV screening analysis show varying levels of summer peak demand savings for different commercial customer types, as summarized in Table 3-13. The 3-22 R. W. Beck, Inc. Arizona Public Service
Technical Value – Distribution System range of demand reduction results from the effect of the PV sizes modeled, which ranged from one-half to double each customer’s peak demand. Some key results are as follows: • Commercial customers with business hours more coincident with solar generation experience the greatest demand reduction, but it is not consistent and would need to be evaluated on a case by case basis for consideration of a reduction in equipment sizes at the customer level. • Businesses that operate into the evening, such as distribution centers, groceries, realty offices, and storage facilities, typically experienced less than 10 percent demand reduction, which would not affect equipment sizing. • Single-axis tracking usually provided additional energy savings, but did not significantly improve demand reduction. • In most cases there is not much difference between the south and southwest orientations based on the 2006 and 2007 solar profiles and customer load profiles modeled. • As with the residential PV, the energy savings associated with the commercial PV were modeled; however, it does not support the objective of reducing equipment sizing. The results of the commercial PV screening analyses (both demand and energy) are provided by customer type in Appendix L. Table 3-13 Demand Reduction Due to Solar DE for Commercial Applications Customer Type Peak Demand Reduction Distribution Centers 0% - 2.5% Grocery 0% - 11% Healthcare Office Bldg. 7% - 18% Large Commercial 0% - 20% Medium Retail 2% - 26% Realty 0% - 5% Storage 0% Schools 0% - 30% Churches 0% - 30% Solar Hot Water Heating Based on the SHW analysis, both energy and demand reductions are proportional to the SHW capacity. The minimum energy savings per the model were 10 percent. Summer peak demand savings ranged from approximately 2 percent to over 5 percent for the more realistic capacity of double the base size, as shown in Figure 3-6. Peak demand savings are limited because the ambient water temperature during peak summer days is so high that little energy is required to heat water during peak hours. Distributed Renewable Energy Operating Impacts & Valuation Study R. W. Beck, Inc. 3-23
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PREPARED FOR: ARIZONA PUBLIC SERVIC
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CONTENTS List of Tables............
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Contents 5. Technical Value - Power
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Contents TABLES 1-1 RES Eligible Te
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Contents FIGURES 1-1 RES Compliance
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5-6 Typical Output, Single-Axis Tra
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Abundant sunshine
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Executive Summary many uncertaintie
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Executive Summary In contrast to al
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Executive Summary Capital Reduction
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Executive Summary Annual Energy and
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Executive Summary commercial custom
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Executive Summary Creation of a suc
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SECTION 1 — STUDY BACKGROUND AND
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Study Background and Description 1.
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Study Background and Description in
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Study Background and Description Fi
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Study Background and Description SH
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Study Background and Description Ta
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Study Background and Description 1.
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Study Background and Description AP
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Study Background and Description cu
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Study Background and Description to
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Study Background and Description in
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Section 2 and commercial customers.
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Section 2 Figure 2-2: Photovoltaic
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Section 2 When weighted by capacity
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Section 2 PV Model Inputs Two basel
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Section 2 Figure 2-5: Phoenix Area
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Section 2 Figure 2-7: Typical Sprin
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Section 2 account shading at the ho
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Section 2 • Residential: • A so
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Section 2 • Thermosyphon systems
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Section 2 existing systems installe
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Section 2 Figure 2-12: Hourly SHW S
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Page 80 and 81: Section 2 Daylighting Costs Capital
Page 82 and 83: Section 2 • An interior diffusion
Page 84 and 85: Section 2 Key Findings of Commercia
Page 86 and 87: Section 2 2.5 Deployment Analysis 2
Page 88 and 89: Section 2 Table 2-11 Residential PV
Page 90 and 91: Section 2 Commercial PV PV systems
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Page 94 and 95: Section 2 Kastovich. 36 The formula
Page 96 and 97: Section 2 Figure 2-20: PV Payback -
Page 98 and 99: Section 2 Figure 2-22: PV Payback -
Page 100 and 101: Section 2 Figure 2-24: Daylighting
Page 102 and 103: Section 2 • The forecast of the a
Page 104 and 105: Section 2 Results of Market Simulat
Page 107 and 108: SECTION 3 — TECHNICAL VALUE - DIS
Page 109 and 110: Technical Value - Distribution Syst
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Page 142 and 143: Section 4 Both of these benefits ar
Page 144 and 145: Section 4 decrease both real and re
Page 146 and 147: Section 4 • A simplifying assumpt
Page 148 and 149: Section 4 Results The effects of as
Page 150 and 151: Section 4 may have excess schedulin
Page 152 and 153: Section 4 4.3.2 Local Reliability/R
Page 154 and 155: Section 4 Figure 4-3: $110 Million
Page 156 and 157: Section 4 Figure 4-4: Historical PV
Page 158 and 159: Section 4 Figure 4-6: Historical PV
Page 161 and 162: SECTION 5 — TECHNICAL VALUE - POW
Page 163 and 164: Technical Value - Power Supply Capa
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Technical Value - Power Supply Capa
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Section 6 Value is also viewed and
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Section 6 6.2.2 Approach to Identif
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Section 6 Table 6-1 Levelized Carry
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Section 6 6.4.2 Summary of Quantita
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Section 6 Table 6-4 Capital Cost Re
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Section 6 Table 6-6 Total Solar DE
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Section 6 savings for the High Pene
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Section 6 6.4.7 Fixed and Variable
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Section 6 current demand, but assum
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Section 6 legislation and regulatio
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Section 6 The expansion of “green
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Section 6 solar DE development over
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Section 6 • Provide financing - M
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Section 6 6.8 Conclusions The winni
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Appendix A solar incidence: solar t
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APPENDIX B — CALIFORNIA PV PROGRA
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CALIFORNIA PV PROGRAM Figure B-2. C
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CALIFORNIA PV PROGRAM largest avera
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CALIFORNIA PV PROGRAM The data show
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CALIFORNIA PV PROGRAM The following
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CALIFORNIA PV PROGRAM Figure B-6. H
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Appendix C The price of an SREC is
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Appendix C Figure C-3. Average Cost
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Appendix C Figure C-6. Average Cost
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Appendix C C.2.5 Government Facilit
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Appendix C Figure C-14. Average Cap
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Appendix C Figure C-16. Total Numbe
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APPENDIX D — CUSTOMER USE CHARACT
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Customer Use Characteristics by Sel
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APPENDIX E — MONTHLY LOAD PROFILE
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Monthly Load Profiles by Selected A
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APPENDIX F — PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEM
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Photovoltaic system modeling Figure
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Photovoltaic system modeling - One-
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Appendix G The SRCC provides estima
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Appendix H Equipment Qualifications
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Appendix I Table I-3 Residential Ch
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Appendix J APS Incentive Schedules
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DISTRIBUTED ENERGY ADMINISTRATION P
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DISTRIBUTED ENERGY ADMINISTRATION P
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Appendix K DSS Study - Distribution
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Overview • EPRI was contracted by
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Circuit Model © 2008 Electric Powe
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Modeling Assumptions • Distributi
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Procedures After Model Conversion
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Load Models • Individual customer
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Loss Impact Analysis © 2008 Electr
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Sample Residential Solar Curves 3.0
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Hourly Average Load and Solar Curve
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Base Case Results: No Solar 12000 T
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Case 1 Results: Business as Usual 1
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Loss Analysis Results Summary Base
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Reduction in 2007 Peak Load 2007 Pe
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Voltage Regulation © 2008 Electric
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ADEQ: Fixed Horizontal commercial P
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SOL_Desert: Fixed Latitude (residen
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Voltage Regulation Model • Same b
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Total PV Power Input Total PV Power
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Effect of PV Power on Phase Current
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Deviation between Voltage Profile 0
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Greenfield Results with Manually Ed
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Effect of Edited PV Profile on Tota
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Effect of Edited PV Profile on Volt
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APPENDIX L — MODEL RESULTS Figure
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Model Results Figure L-5. Residenti
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Model Results Figure L-9. Residenti
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Model Results Figure L-13. Resident
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Model Results Figure L-17. Resident
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Model Results Figure L-21. Commerci
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Model Results Figure L-25. Commerci
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Model Results Figure L-29. Large Co
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Model Results Figure L-33. Solar Ho
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Model Results Figure L-49. Cactus A
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Model Results Figure L-53. East Val
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Model Results Figure L-57. East Val
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Model Results Figure L-61. Galvin P
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Model Results Figure L-65. Javalina
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Model Results Figure L-69. Pioneer
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Model Results Figure L-73. Thompson
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Model Results Figure L-77. DE Impac
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Appendix M Figure M-2. Power Factor
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Appendix M Table M-1 Data Points fo
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Appendix M Figure M-6. Zoomed Plot
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Appendix M Figure M-10. Plot of Tra
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Appendix M • I harmonic number: 3
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Appendix M • File ending: Bad •
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Appendix M Table M-7 Limit Setups V
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Appendix N Evaluation of Economic V
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Appendix N N.3 Economic Value of Ca
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Distributed Renewable Energy Operat
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Calculation of APS Carrying Charges
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Calculation of APS Carrying Charges
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