Distributed Renewable Energy Operating Impacts and Valuation Study

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Distributed Renewable Energy Operating Impacts and Valuation Study Calculation of APS Carrying Charges and Discount Rates Page 4 Weighted Cost of Capital Tax Adjusted Capital Weighted Before Tax Cost (%) Structure (%) Cost (%) Cost (%) Cost of Capital Component DC -- Debt Cost 7.25 45.5 3.30 3.30 EC -- Equity Cost 10.75 54.5 5.86 9.66 ATR -- Average Tax Rate 39.36 WCOC(g) -- Weighted Average After Tax COC 12.96 IRP -- Inflation Rate Premium 2.50 RWCOC -- Inflation-adjusted Weighted Average After Tax COC 10.20 Average Capital Recovery Factor / Depreciation Component Average Plant Lives Depreciation Rates (%) CF(g) -- Generation 32 3.13 CF(t) -- Transmission 50 2.00 CF(d) -- Distribution 40 2.50 Other Factors Rates (%) PTR -- Property Tax Rate Calculated AIR -- Average Insurance Rate Neglible IT -- Accumulated Deferred Income Tax Calculated Levelized Capital Carrying Charges (%) CC(g) -- Generation 11.79 CC(t) -- Transmission 11.84 CC(d) -- Distribution 12.06 APS Discount Rates (%) NDR -- Nominal 7.86 IR -- Inflation Rate 2.50 RDR -- Inflation-adjusted discount rate 5.23 R. W. Beck, Inc. 1/21/2009
APS Carrying Charges ion of APS Carrying Charges and Discount RatesGeneration Carrying Charges Page 4 18.0 16.0 14.0 Annual Carrying Charges Levelized Carrying Charges 12.0 DC -- Debt Cost 10.0 EC -- Equity Cost ATR -- Average Tax Rate WCOC(g) 8.0-- Weighted Average After Tax COC IRP -- Inflation Rate Premium - Inflation-adjusted 6.0 Weighted Average After Tax COC ($M) 4.0 Capital Recovery Factor / Depreciation Component 2.0 CF(g) -- Generation CF(t) -- Transmission 0.0 CF(d) -- Distribution 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 PTR -- Property Tax Rate AIR -- Average Insurance Rate IT -- Accumulated Deferred Income Tax Transmission Carrying Charges Levelized Capital Carrying Charges 18.0 CC(g) -- Generation CC(t) -- Transmission 16.0 CC(d) -- Distribution 14.0 12.0 NDR -- Nominal IR -- Inflation Rate RDR 10.0 -- Inflation-adjusted discount rate ($M) 8.0 Annual Fixed Charges Levelized Fixed Charges 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 Distribution Carrying Charges 18.0 16.0 14.0 Annual Fixed Charges Levelized Fixed Charges ($M) 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 R. W. Beck, Inc. Page 5
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PREPARED FOR: ARIZONA PUBLIC SERVIC
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CONTENTS List of Tables............
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Contents 5. Technical Value - Power
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Contents TABLES 1-1 RES Eligible Te
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Contents FIGURES 1-1 RES Compliance
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5-6 Typical Output, Single-Axis Tra
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Abundant sunshine
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Executive Summary many uncertaintie
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Executive Summary In contrast to al
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Executive Summary Capital Reduction
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Executive Summary Annual Energy and
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Executive Summary commercial custom
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Executive Summary Creation of a suc
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SECTION 1 — STUDY BACKGROUND AND
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Study Background and Description 1.
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Study Background and Description in
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Study Background and Description Fi
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Study Background and Description SH
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Study Background and Description Ta
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Study Background and Description 1.
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Study Background and Description AP
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Study Background and Description cu
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Study Background and Description to
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Study Background and Description in
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Section 2 and commercial customers.
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Section 2 Figure 2-2: Photovoltaic
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Section 2 When weighted by capacity
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Section 2 PV Model Inputs Two basel
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Section 2 Figure 2-5: Phoenix Area
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Section 2 Figure 2-7: Typical Sprin
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Section 2 account shading at the ho
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Section 2 • Residential: • A so
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Section 2 • Thermosyphon systems
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Section 2 existing systems installe
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Section 2 Figure 2-12: Hourly SHW S
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Section 2 Figure 2-14: Active Dayli
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Section 2 Daylighting Costs Capital
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Section 2 • An interior diffusion
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Section 2 Key Findings of Commercia
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Section 2 2.5 Deployment Analysis 2
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Section 2 Table 2-11 Residential PV
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Section 2 Commercial PV PV systems
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Section 2 was conceived by Frank Ba
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Section 2 Kastovich. 36 The formula
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Section 2 Figure 2-20: PV Payback -
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Section 2 Figure 2-22: PV Payback -
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Section 2 Figure 2-24: Daylighting
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Section 2 • The forecast of the a
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Section 2 Results of Market Simulat
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SECTION 3 — TECHNICAL VALUE - DIS
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Technical Value - Distribution Syst
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Section 4 Both of these benefits ar
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Section 4 decrease both real and re
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Section 4 • A simplifying assumpt
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Section 4 Results The effects of as
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Section 4 may have excess schedulin
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Section 4 4.3.2 Local Reliability/R
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Section 4 Figure 4-3: $110 Million
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Section 4 Figure 4-4: Historical PV
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Section 4 Figure 4-6: Historical PV
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SECTION 5 — TECHNICAL VALUE - POW
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Technical Value - Power Supply Capa
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Section 6 Value is also viewed and
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Section 6 6.2.2 Approach to Identif
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Section 6 Table 6-1 Levelized Carry
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Section 6 6.4.2 Summary of Quantita
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Section 6 Table 6-4 Capital Cost Re
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Section 6 Table 6-6 Total Solar DE
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Section 6 savings for the High Pene
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Section 6 6.4.7 Fixed and Variable
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Section 6 current demand, but assum
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Section 6 legislation and regulatio
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Section 6 The expansion of “green
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Section 6 solar DE development over
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Section 6 • Provide financing - M
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Section 6 6.8 Conclusions The winni
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Appendix A solar incidence: solar t
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APPENDIX B — CALIFORNIA PV PROGRA
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CALIFORNIA PV PROGRAM Figure B-2. C
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CALIFORNIA PV PROGRAM largest avera
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CALIFORNIA PV PROGRAM The data show
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CALIFORNIA PV PROGRAM The following
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CALIFORNIA PV PROGRAM Figure B-6. H
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Appendix C The price of an SREC is
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Appendix C Figure C-3. Average Cost
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Appendix C Figure C-6. Average Cost
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Appendix C C.2.5 Government Facilit
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Appendix C Figure C-14. Average Cap
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Appendix C Figure C-16. Total Numbe
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APPENDIX D — CUSTOMER USE CHARACT
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Customer Use Characteristics by Sel
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APPENDIX E — MONTHLY LOAD PROFILE
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Monthly Load Profiles by Selected A
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APPENDIX F — PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEM
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Photovoltaic system modeling Figure
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Photovoltaic system modeling - One-
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Appendix G The SRCC provides estima
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Appendix H Equipment Qualifications
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Appendix I Table I-3 Residential Ch
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Appendix J APS Incentive Schedules
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DISTRIBUTED ENERGY ADMINISTRATION P
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DISTRIBUTED ENERGY ADMINISTRATION P
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Appendix K DSS Study - Distribution
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Overview • EPRI was contracted by
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Circuit Model © 2008 Electric Powe
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Modeling Assumptions • Distributi
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Procedures After Model Conversion
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Load Models • Individual customer
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Loss Impact Analysis © 2008 Electr
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Sample Residential Solar Curves 3.0
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Hourly Average Load and Solar Curve
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Base Case Results: No Solar 12000 T
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Case 1 Results: Business as Usual 1
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Loss Analysis Results Summary Base
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Reduction in 2007 Peak Load 2007 Pe
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Voltage Regulation © 2008 Electric
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ADEQ: Fixed Horizontal commercial P
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SOL_Desert: Fixed Latitude (residen
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Voltage Regulation Model • Same b
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Total PV Power Input Total PV Power
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Effect of PV Power on Phase Current
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Deviation between Voltage Profile 0
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Greenfield Results with Manually Ed
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Effect of Edited PV Profile on Tota
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Effect of Edited PV Profile on Volt
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APPENDIX L — MODEL RESULTS Figure
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Model Results Figure L-5. Residenti
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Model Results Figure L-9. Residenti
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Model Results Figure L-13. Resident
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Model Results Figure L-17. Resident
Page 369 and 370: Model Results Figure L-21. Commerci
Page 371 and 372: Model Results Figure L-25. Commerci
Page 373 and 374: Model Results Figure L-29. Large Co
Page 375 and 376: Model Results Figure L-33. Solar Ho
Page 383 and 384: Model Results Figure L-49. Cactus A
Page 385 and 386: Model Results Figure L-53. East Val
Page 387 and 388: Model Results Figure L-57. East Val
Page 389 and 390: Model Results Figure L-61. Galvin P
Page 391 and 392: Model Results Figure L-65. Javalina
Page 393 and 394: Model Results Figure L-69. Pioneer
Page 395 and 396: Model Results Figure L-73. Thompson
Page 397: Model Results Figure L-77. DE Impac
Page 400 and 401: Appendix M Figure M-2. Power Factor
Page 402 and 403: Appendix M Table M-1 Data Points fo
Page 404 and 405: Appendix M Figure M-6. Zoomed Plot
Page 406 and 407: Appendix M Figure M-10. Plot of Tra
Page 408 and 409: Appendix M • I harmonic number: 3
Page 410 and 411: Appendix M • File ending: Bad •
Page 412 and 413: Appendix M Table M-7 Limit Setups V
Page 415: Appendix N Evaluation of Economic V
Page 418 and 419: Appendix N N.3 Economic Value of Ca
Page 422 and 423: Calculation of APS Carrying Charges
Page 424: Calculation of APS Carrying Charges
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