Distributed Renewable Energy Operating Impacts and Valuation Study

Solar Characterization
Table 2-15
Commercial Daylighting Technical Potential
Application
Potential
Roof Area
(ksf)
Energy
Savings
(kWh/ksf)
Technical
Potential
(MWh)
School Gym 26,280 1,267 29,955
Small Office 50,899 1,273 58,292
Large Retail 90,066 1,966 159,363
Large Grocery 13,430 2,284 27,601
Warehouse 112,255 751 75,823
Total 351,034
_____
Note: Assumes 90% applicability
Tariffs
As presented in Section 1 of this Report, APS customers fall into more than a dozen tariff
classes, with different corresponding rates for electricity. The average residential energy price
applicable to the SHW and PV measures evaluated in this Study was calculated to be $0.123 per
kWh. The average commercial tariff was calculated to be $0.064 per kWh, based on a weighted
average of commercial tariffs, commercial use by tariff, and number of commercial customers on
each tariff. Detailed tariff information for APS customers is presented in Appendix I.
2.5.2 Model Description
Market Simulation Modeling
A diffusion model was used to predict the actual adoption of the solar DE measures by APS
customers. A diffusion model considers the cost of the measures, the energy savings, the energy
cost and resulting payback period, as well as the dynamics that result in an “S-shaped” growth
pattern of technology adoption. This section describes the model utilized for this Study, the
baseline and sensitivity cases modeled, and the modeling results.
Description of Bass Diffusion Model
To simulate adoption of PV, SHW, and daylighting, a dynamic market simulation model was
created based on a customized version of the highly esteemed Bass diffusion model. 33 The Bass
diffusion model is arguably the most highly cited and referenced model in marketing literature. It
33 For further reference see:
Bass, Frank M. 1969. “A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables.” Management Scientist
13(5):215-227.
Mahajan, Vijay, Eitan Muller, and Yoram Wind. 2000. “New Product Diffusion Models.” International Series
in Quantitative Market. Ch. 12.
Sterman, John D. 2000. Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Boston:
Irwin McGraw-Hill, 332.
Distributed Renewable Energy Operating Impacts & Valuation Study R. W. Beck, Inc. 2-37