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Dynamic overbooking limits for guaranteed and nonguaranteed hotel reservations
to (22) and (23) respectively, we find that the maximum expected gross margin that the hotelier
can earn after confirming these 4 rooms is:
(30) EUR, if all other bookings
after this booking are nonguaranteed, and
(31) EUR, if all other bookings
are guaranteed.
The difference between (30) and (31) is negligible, but the situation is different if the hotelier
has confirmed the 4 additional rooms as nonguaranteed bookings. Reapplying (27) and (28)
to (25) and (26) leads to:
(32) EUR, if all other bookings
are nonguaranteed, and
(33) EUR, if all other bookings
are guaranteed.
The difference between the two expected gross margins in (32) and (33) is now significant.
The hotelier does not have stimuli to confirm more nonguaranteed bookings. In fact, he/she
will maximize his/her income if he/she confirms only guaranteed bookings. That’s why usually
hotel chains require a credit card guarantee for online bookings through their websites (e.g.
Accor, Marriott, etc.). However, the competition among hotels forces them to accept both
guaranteed and nonguaranteed bookings.
CONCLUSION
The major strength of the proposed model is that it can be readily and easily applied in hotel
establishments. Hotel managers do not need expensive software in order to determine how
their expected used room inventory will change in case of changes in the
guaranteed/nonguaranteed bookings ratio. The average percentage of non-used rooms from
guaranteed and nonguaranteed reservations is also easily determinable from past bookings
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