Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

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THE CASE STUDIES IN BRIEF Infectious and Respiratory Diseases Malaria is the deadliest, most disabling and most economically damaging mosquito-borne disease worldwide. Warming affects its range, and extreme weather events can precipitate large outbreaks. This study documents the fivefold increase in illness following a six-week flood in Mozambique, explores the surprising role of drought in northeast Brazil, and projects changes for malaria in the highlands of Zimbabwe. 3,000 African children die each day from malaria. Image: Pierre Virot/WHO West Nile virus (WNV) is an urban-based, mosquito-borne infection, afflicting humans, horses and more than 138 species of birds. Present in the US, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, warm winters and spring droughts play roles in amplifying this disease. To date, there have been over 17,000 human cases and over 650 deaths from WNV in North America. Culex pipiens mosquitoes breed in city drains. Image: Biopix.dk Lyme disease is the most widespread vector-borne disease in the US and can cause long-term disability. Lyme disease is spreading in North America and Europe as winters warm, and models project that warming will continue to shift the suitable range for the deer ticks that carry this infection. The deer tick that carries Lyme disease. Image: Scott Bauer/USDA Agricultural Research Service 9 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Asthma prevalence has quadrupled in the US since 1980, and this condition is increasing in developed and underdeveloped nations. New drivers include rising CO 2 , which increases the allergenic plant pollens and some soil fungi, and dust clouds containing particles and microbes coming from expanding deserts, compounding the effects of air pollutants and smog from the burning of fossil fuels. Asthma rates have quadrupled in the US since 1980. Image: Daniela Spyropoulou/Dreamstime Extreme Weather Events Heat waves are becoming more common and more intense throughout the world. This study explores the multiple impacts of the highly anomalous 2003 summer heat wave in Europe and the potential impact of such “outlier” events elsewhere for human health, forests, agricultural yields, mountain glaciers and utility grids. Temperatures in 2003 were 6°C (11°F) above long-term summer averages. Image: NASA/Earth Observatory
THE CASE STUDIES IN BRIEF Floods inundated large parts of Central Europe in 2002 and had consequences for human health and infrastructure. Serious floods occurred again in Central Europe in 2005. The return times for such inundations are projected to decrease in developed and developing nations, and climate change is expected to result in more heavy rainfall events. Floods have become more common on most continents. Image: Bill Haber/AP Natural and Managed Systems Forests are experiencing numerous pest infestations. Warming increases the range, reproductive rates and activity of pests, such as spruce bark beetles, while drought makes trees more susceptible to the pests. This study examines the synergies of drought and pests, and the dangers of wildfire. Large-scale forest diebacks are possible, and they would have severe consequences for human health, property, wildlife, timber and Earth’s carbon cycle. Droughts and pest infestations contribute to the rise in forest fires. Image: John McColgan, Bureau of Land Management, Alaska Fire Service 10 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Healthy crops need adequate water and freedom from pests and disease. Image: Ruta Saulyte/Dreamstime Coral reefs nourish fish and buffer shorelines. Image: Oceana Agriculture faces warming, more extremes and more diseases. More drought and flooding under the new climate, and accompanying outbreaks of crop pests and diseases, can affect yields, nutrition, food prices and political stability. Chemical measures to limit infestations are costly and unhealthy. Marine ecosystems are under increasing pressure from overfishing, excess wastes, loss of wetlands, and diseases of bivalves that normally filter and clean bays and estuaries. Even slightly elevated ocean temperatures can destroy the symbiotic relationship between algae and animal polyps that make up coral reefs, which buffer shores, harbor fish and contain organisms with powerful chemicals useful to medicine. Warming seas and diseases may cause coral reefs to collapse. Water, life’s essential ingredient, faces enormous threats. Underground stores are being overdrawn and underfed. As weather patterns shift and mountain ice fields disappear, changes in water quality and availability will pose growth limitations on human settlements, agriculture and hydropower. Flooding can lead to water contamination with toxic chemicals and microbes, and natural disasters routinely damage water-delivery infrastructure. Millions of people walk four hours per day to obtain clean water. Image: Pierre Virot/WHO
Page 1 and 2: Climate Change Futures Health, Ecol
Page 3 and 4: Published by: The Center for Health
Page 5 and 6: PREAMBLE Hurricane Katrina 4 | PREA
Page 7 and 8: 6 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY With this in
Page 9: 8 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Other non-lin
Page 13 and 14: 12 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THE CCF PROJ
Page 16 and 17: PART I: The Climate Context Today
Page 18 and 19: (see McCarthy et al. 2001). As glac
Page 20 and 21: Table 1.1 Extreme Weather Events an
Page 22 and 23: DISCONTINUITIES CLIVAR, Climate Var
Page 24 and 25: Figure 1.6 The Frequency of Weather
Page 26 and 27: Figure 1.7 Trends in Events, Losses
Page 28 and 29: • Thawing of permafrost (permanen
Page 30 and 31: CCF-II: GRADUAL WARMING WITH INCREA
Page 32 and 33: PART II: Case Studies
Page 34 and 35: CLIMATE CHANGE AND EMERGING INFECTI
Page 36 and 37: HEALTH IMPACTS Malaria is character
Page 38 and 39: Figure 2.5 Brazil N Brazil COLOMBIA
Page 40 and 41: estimates (over and above current a
Page 42 and 43: SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS Preventing
Page 44 and 45: 262 deaths in 2003; 7,470 cases and
Page 46 and 47: 98% of the two-year life cycle take
Page 48 and 49: The rise in minimum temperature res
Page 50 and 51: While the role of allergen exposure
Page 52 and 53: AIR QUALITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ISSU
Page 54 and 55: EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS 1984 and 199
Page 56 and 57: HEALTH AND ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS Heat
Page 58 and 59: Figure 2.20 Projected Excess Deaths
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THE ROLE OF CLIMATE Australia exper
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Service). Since 2002, severe floods
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Table 2.1 Economic Losses in Europe
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NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS adelgid
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created unstable conditions conduci
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Climate research has already identi
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LOSSES ASSOCIATED WITH 1993 HEAVY P
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Figure 2.28 Soybean Rust Introducti
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Table 2.3 Extreme Weather Events Ca
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General measures to reduce the impa
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Physiological stresses on reef orga
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There are many questions concerning
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• Terminating practices that dest
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ecome contaminated with viruses and
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In 2001 the IPCC fully recognized t
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While seawater desalinization is cu
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PART III: Financial Implications, S
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Figure 3.1 Reinsurance Prices Are H
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RISK SPREADING IN DEVELOPED AND DEV
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THE LIMITS OF INSURABILITY Not all
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(also known as “cash-flow underwr
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from areas plagued by persistent dr
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Engagement of the insurance industr
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Industry observers point out that p
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CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Jus
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FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS Regulators an
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of carbon-risk hedging products, su
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Summary Table of Extreme Weather Ev
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Table B.1 Summer Percentage Frequen
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Climate sensitivity for small-scale
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diffuse and do not manifest in sing
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APPENDIX D. LIST OF PARTICIPANTS AT
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Carmenza Robledo Gruppe Oekologie E
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126 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Bibliography AAA
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128 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Chordas, L. Epid
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Ford, S.E. & Tripp, M.R. Diseases a
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132 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Kalkstein, L. S.
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134 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Mills, E. The in
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136 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Rose, J. B., Eps
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138 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Vandyk, J. K., B
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Infectious and Respiratory Diseases
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Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

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