Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

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Summary Table of Extreme Weather Events and Impacts (continued) 2 Note: Adapted from IPCC (Vellinga et al. 2001); last row (elevated CO 2 ) not included in original version. * Likelihood refers to judgmental estimates of confidence used by Working Group I: very likely (90-99% chance); likely (66-90% chance). Unless otherwise stated, information on climate phenomena is taken from Working Group I, Summary for Policymakers and Technical Summary. These likelihoods refer to the observed and projected changes in extreme climate phenomena and likelihood shown in columns 1 to 3 of this table. ** High confidence refers to probabilities between 2-in-3 and 95% as described in Footnote 4 of SPM WGII. *** Information from Working Group I Technical Summary, Section F.5. **** Changes in regional distribution of tropical cyclones are possible but have not been esablished. 113 | APPENDICES
APPENDIX B. ADDITIONAL FINDINGS AND METHODS FOR US ANALOG STUDIES OF HEAT WAVES This appendix covers the details of the heat wave case study and the methods used to carry out the analog studies for five US cities. Maximum and minimum temperatures are equally important in understanding the oppressive nature of the heat wave during the analog summer. For 24 days nighttime temperatures tie or break high minimum temperature records, and for 11 days they tie or break the all-time high minimum temperature record of 28°C (82°F). Eight of the 11 days are consecutive, and such a string would undoubtedly have a very negative impact on the population of the city. In Washington, DC, 11 days record maximum temperatures at or above 41°C (105°F). However, the most intense heat for the analog summer occurs in St. Louis, where an all-time maximum temperature record of 46°C (116°F) is achieved on July 14 plus 8 days record temperatures of 44°C (110°F) or higher. Some minimum temperatures never fall below 32°C (90°F), and an all-time high minimum temperature record of 34°C (93°F) is set on August 9 in St. Louis. 114 | APPENDICES The normally cooler cities of New York City and Detroit are not spared in the analog event. For New York, four days break the all-time maximum temperature record and two days achieve the same for minimums. One day reaches 44°C (110°F) and 11 straight days in August have minimums exceeding 27°C (80°F). Detroit breaks two all-time maximums, and has a string of seven out of eight days breaking all-time minimums. Fourteen days in Detroit exceed 38°C (100°F) during the analog summer, including a nine-day consecutive string in August. Methods First, the Paris event is characterized statistically, and these characteristics are transferred to the selected US cities. Second, the hypothetical meteorological data-set for each city is converted into a daily air mass calendar through use of the spatial synoptic classification. A large body of literature suggests that humans respond negatively to certain “offensive air masses,” which envelop the body during stressful conditions (Kalkstein et al. 1996; Sheridan and Kalkstein 2004). Rather than responding to individual weather elements, we are affected by the simultaneous impact of a much larger suite of meteorological conditions that constitute an air mass. The spatial synoptic classifications are based on measurements of temperature, dew point temperature, pressure, wind speed and direction, and cloud cover to classify the weather for a given day into one of a series of predetermined, readily identifiable, air mass categories. They are: 1. Dry Polar (DP) 5. Moist Moderate (MM) 2. Dry Moderate (DM) 6. Moist Tropical (MT) 3. Dry Tropical (DT) 7. Moist Tropical Plus (MT+) 4. Moist Polar (MP) An evaluation of the air mass frequencies for the analogs to the 2003 Paris heat wave in the five US cities provides a clear picture of how exceptional this event would be (Table B.1). On average, Philadelphia, for example, experiences offensive air masses MT+ or DT in June, July, and August, 15.2%, 16.5%, and 11.3% of the time, respectively (or 14.3% averaged over the three-month summer period). Applying the 2003 analog to Philadelphia, these values increase to 50%, 38.7% and 58%, respectively.
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Climate Change Futures Health, Ecol
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Published by: The Center for Health
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PREAMBLE Hurricane Katrina 4 | PREA
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6 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY With this in
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8 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Other non-lin
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THE CASE STUDIES IN BRIEF Floods in
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12 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THE CCF PROJ
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PART I: The Climate Context Today
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(see McCarthy et al. 2001). As glac
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Table 1.1 Extreme Weather Events an
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DISCONTINUITIES CLIVAR, Climate Var
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Figure 1.6 The Frequency of Weather
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Figure 1.7 Trends in Events, Losses
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• Thawing of permafrost (permanen
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CCF-II: GRADUAL WARMING WITH INCREA
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PART II: Case Studies
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND EMERGING INFECTI
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HEALTH IMPACTS Malaria is character
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Figure 2.5 Brazil N Brazil COLOMBIA
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estimates (over and above current a
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SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS Preventing
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262 deaths in 2003; 7,470 cases and
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98% of the two-year life cycle take
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The rise in minimum temperature res
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While the role of allergen exposure
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AIR QUALITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ISSU
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EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS 1984 and 199
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HEALTH AND ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS Heat
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Figure 2.20 Projected Excess Deaths
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THE ROLE OF CLIMATE Australia exper
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Service). Since 2002, severe floods
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Page 122 and 123: APPENDIX D. LIST OF PARTICIPANTS AT
Page 124: Carmenza Robledo Gruppe Oekologie E
Page 127 and 128: 126 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Bibliography AAA
Page 129 and 130: 128 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Chordas, L. Epid
Page 131 and 132: Ford, S.E. & Tripp, M.R. Diseases a
Page 133 and 134: 132 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Kalkstein, L. S.
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Page 137 and 138: 136 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Rose, J. B., Eps
Page 139 and 140: 138 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Vandyk, J. K., B
Page 142: Infectious and Respiratory Diseases
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