Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

diffuse and do not manifest in single “catastrophe” events. The lack of information is worrisome, as the industry
lacks good grasp of its exposure as it does in the property/casualty lines. Life insurance “catastrophes” were
unknown for insurers prior to 9/11 and the massive heat mortality in Europe in summer 2003. To provide a frame
of reference, ING Re’s Group Life estimates that a pandemic like that of 1918-1919 would result in a doubling of
group life payouts in the US alone of approximately US $30 billion to US $40 billion per year (Rasmussen 2005).
Given that the US has about one-third of the world market in life insurance, this would imply US $90 billion to US
$120 billion per year globally.
Respiratory disease emerges as one of the most pervasive health impacts of climate change and the combustion
of fossil fuels. One driver is an elevated rate of aeroallergens from more CO 2
— that is predetermined to rise
regardless of the energy trajectory, given the 100-year life time of these molecules in the atmosphere. Asthma,
already a major and growing challenge for insurers in the late 20th century, becomes more widespread. This is
accompanied by an upturn in mold-related claims due to increased moisture levels in and around buildings.
Exacerbating the problem, a variety of sources of increased airborne particulates (particularly PM2.5, the fine particulate
matter equal to or less than 2.5 micrometers) also impact respiratory health and these arise from an
increased frequency of wildfires, major and minor dust storms associated with droughts and changing wind patterns,
and air pollution patterns.
Heat catastrophes are projected to become a growing issue throughout the world. This will increase mortality
and, along with water shortages, affect wildlife and livestock, forests and soils, and will put added stresses on
already stretched energy demands, generating additional greenhouse gases, without major changes in the
sources of energy.
Infectious diseases are afflicting a wide taxonomic range. In terms of human morbidity and mortality and ecosystem
health and integrity, the role of infectious diseases is projected to increase in industrialized and in underdeveloped
regions of the world, adding substantially to the accelerating spread of disease, and the loss of species and
biological impoverishment.
In our scenarios, an array of other health problems become more prevalent in industrialized countries, although
socioeconomic buffers and public health interventions may buffer the impacts in the short-term. Food poisoning
due to spoilage — now a summertime phenomenon — can increase with more heat spells. Weather-related roadway
accidents can increase as do an assortment of ills related to eroded water quality. There are also increased
rates of physical damage and drownings under our scenarios arising from natural catastrophes such as windstorms
and floods.
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Under our scenarios, each of the above-mentioned developments is amplified considerably in developing nations
and in economies in transition (the emerging markets). Health and life insurance grows rapidly in these regions
during the early part of the 21st century, but is slowed as insurers recognize the increasing losses and withdraw
from these markets, or raise prices to levels at which their products becomes unaffordable.