Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

Figure 2.20 Projected Excess Deaths in Five US Cities Under Europe-2003 Conditions
1200
1000
Washington, DC
Philadelphia
Detroit
St. Louis
New York
Excess Deaths
800
600
400
200
0
Jun Jul Aug
Month
EXCESS MORTALITY
IN THE ANALOG EVENTS
Today, approximately 1,000 people die of heat-related
causes in the 44 largest US cities and between 1,500
and 2,000 for the entire country (Kalkstein and Greene
1997). With this in mind, the number of excess deaths
estimated for each of the five cities under analog heat
wave conditions is staggering. For New York City
alone, excess mortality during the analog summer is
nearly 3,000.
• Excess deaths (which are assumed to be heat-attributed)
were very high for the analog summer, with an
estimated total across all locations that was more
than five times the average. New York’s total alone
exceeded the national summer average for heatrelated
deaths.
• New York and St. Louis had the highest death rates
for the analog summer due to the many high-rises
and brick row-homes with black tar roofs that
absorb a lot of heat.
57 | EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
KEY PROJECTIONS
FROM THE US
ANALOG STUDIES
• Summer frequencies of the unhealthy, “offensive air
masses” (see Appendix B for definitions) ranged
from almost 200% to over 400 % above average
during the analog summer in the five cities.
Frequencies also exceeded the hottest summer over
the past 59 years by a significant margin.
• Consecutive days of unprecedented length with
unhealthy air masses were a hallmark of the analog
heat wave, and the strings of days occurred on two
different occasions during the summer.
• All-time records for maximum and high minimum temperature
were broken in all cities, and, in some
locales, there were consecutive days breaking alltime
records.
SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS
HEAT/HEALTH WATCH WARNING SYSTEMS
Early warning systems have been shown to effectively
reduce mortality associated with heat waves (Kalkstein
2000; Ebi et al. 2004; Smith 2005). The principal
components of early warning systems include meteorological
forecasts, models to predict health outcomes,
effective response plans, and monitoring and evaluation
plans, set within disaster management strategies.
The meteorological component should incorporate projected
increases in climate variability by considering
scenarios of weather anomalies outside the historic
range. Models of adverse health outcomes need to
project changes in incidence accurately, specifically
and rapidly enough for effective responses to be
implemented. Because early warnings alone are not
sufficient to guarantee that necessary actions will be
taken, prevention programs need to be designed with
CASE STUDIES