Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

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There are many questions concerning this cost-benefit accounting methodology, especially the true nature of the benefits (for example, medicines derived from reefdwelling organisms, which can generate billions of dollars in revenue), and the connected costs and multiple intangibles included in the cost-benefit analyses. In addition, benefits can accrue over time and alter the value of natural assets. It is questionable if these figures accurately portray the full evaluation of a threshold event, such as the collapse of reefs worldwide. SOCIO-ECONOMICS OF THE 1997-98 CORAL REEF BLEACHING EPISODE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN In the short term, the most dramatic socio-economic impacts from the 1997-98 mass bleaching event were estimated losses to reef-dependent tourism. These losses were developed for the diving destinations at Palau, El Nido, Palawan, the Philippines and other sites in the Indian Ocean region. Table 2.5 Losses from 1997-98 Bleaching (US $Millions) Country Total Losses Zanzibar 7.4 Mombasa 35.1 Maldivas 22.0 Sri Lanka 2.2 Philippines 29.6 Palau 0.4 Source: Westmacott et al. 2000 The manifestation of the losses shown in the table above is multidimensional and includes: a) impacts on tourist destination choice, which results in lost visitation and therefore a total loss of tourism revenue; b) impacts on choice of activities pursued, which may cause reduced coral reef-related revenue; and c) reductions in tourist satisfaction with the diving experience as a result of degraded reef conditions. The implication is that impacts of coral bleaching on tourism depend upon whether diving destinations can maintain their status and reputation, even in the face of reef degradation, through promotion of other underwater attractions. Impacts upon the diving industry might be reduced by diverting diver attention to other interests, such as shipwrecks or even the documentation of coral bleaching per se. However, such tactics may be risky and non-sustaining. For example, resorts in El Nido shifted market segments away from divers to honeymooners in response to reef degradation, resulting in a significant loss of US $1.5 million annually. Studies undertaken in the Indian Ocean region in response to the 1997-98 bleaching event provide empirical documentation and estimates of the impact of a single catastrophic episode of coral reef bleaching. The upper end of the cost estimate is US $8 billion, depending on the ability of the reefs to ultimately recover. THE FUTURE CCF-I: ESCALATING IMPACTS Global warming, with inadequate winter cooling, will continue to heat sea surfaces, especially across the tropics. The full impact of such temperature increases on the vitality of coral reef ecosystems will depend upon the nature of other human-induced changes and the cumulative stresses placed upon reef ecosystems. Overall, the projected warm seasonal disruption of symbiosis in reefbuilding corals will reduce the growth in mass of the inorganic reef frame. With weakened frames, the susceptibility of coral reefs to physical damage during storms increases, while the capacity for self-repair diminishes. Thermal stress and bleaching also disrupts food production and energetics within reef-building corals, retarding the generation of mature gametes for sexual reproduction and reducing the coral’s abilities to resist predation. With time, reefs become fragile and less able to protect shores against storm surges. Global warming, meanwhile, would stimulate proliferation, colonization, random mutation and host invasion of marine microbes. The coral’s already compromised defenses against predation would be further challenged by an invigorated assortment of micro-predators with limitless strategies for penetrating coral tissues. 81 | NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS CASE STUDIES
82 | NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS CASE STUDIES IMPACT ON FISHERIES Population reductions have been predicted for species that inhabit reefs for at least part of their life cycle or that prey on smaller reef fish. Changes in fish abundance would vary by species, shifting the net composition of reef fish populations toward herbivores. Such a shift would negatively impact fishermen, as herbivores are lower in value than other species. When bleaching is superimposed on reefs that are already overfished, reductions in overall reef fish populations would not be expected, since herbivores would have dominated the fishery prior to the bleaching event. Impacts occurring at small spatial or temporal scales would be masked by fishermen changing their fishing habits and patterns. The impacts upon fisheries may become more pronounced once the structural frame of bleached reefs is eroded. CCF-II: SURPRISE IMPACTS With nearly 60% of the world’s reefs threatened by bleaching, pollution and disease, it is plausible to project a collapse of coral reefs in the next several decades. Just 1°C additional warming of sea surface temperatures could bleach the entire ring of coral reefs. Costing the loss of Earth’s oldest habitat makes little sense. The economic valuation of about US $800 billion for the world’s reefs may vastly underestimate their irreplaceable role. The economic and social value of assuring the survival of coral reefs and the ecosystems associated with them (that is, seagrasses, mangroves, beach and upland communities) is not possible to quantify. Potential economic impacts following the collapse of coral reef ecosystems are of great concern. Recovery of damages to tourist-related structures (including shoreline hotels, losses of homes, roads and bridges) would require major financial support. Economic resources would be necessary to repair storm-damaged properties (homes, buildings, piers, boats), to meet elevated local health care costs stemming from environmental illnesses, and also to compensate unemployed local workers. The loss of reefs as tourist attractions and the loss of reef protection against storm surge, together with sea level rise, will create socio-economic catastrophes in low-lying islands and coastlines. Tourism in the Caribbean generates over US $16 billion annually. The combination of sea level rise, coral reef destruction, more intense storms, more powerful storm surges, and more epidemics of vector-borne diseases (such as dengue fever) collectively pose substantial risks for tourism, travel and allied industries. Disruption of low-lying coastal areas and island life from the combination of saltwater intrusion into aquifers, the loss of barrier and fringing reefs, and more intense tropical storms could displace many island and low-lying nation populations, resulting in heightened political and economic pressures on other nations. The generation of large numbers of environmental refugees and internally displaced persons may present the greatest short-term costs to international security and stability. SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS The full impacts of global warming may be delayed by reducing the direct anthropogenic threats to coral survival. Direct contact between tourists and coral, boat and anchor damage, release of debris and chemical pollutants around reefs, and unsustainable harvesting activities for recreation and commerce are detrimental to reef resilience. Marine Protected Areas provide the framework for preserving these vital areas. Implementation of conservation measures must be comprehensive in order to have a substantial and lasting effect. The measures include: • Treatment of domestic sewage to tertiary breakdown levels before release into far-offshore marine environments. • Reduced use of fertilizers and pesticides in nearshore coastal communities. • Implementing fishing quotas, establishing ‘no-go’ zones and seasons, and designating temporary noharvesting zones, to allow for replenishment and protection of shellfish and finfish stocks. • Preserve contiguous areas of the interconnected upland forest and watershed systems, coastal wetlands, mangrove stands and spawning lagoons. • Adhering to regulations regarding Marine Protected Areas and restricted access zones along coastal areas. • Banning and monitoring compliance for destructive fishing practices, for example, dynamite and cyanide used for fishing, and removal of reefs for construction.
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Climate Change Futures Health, Ecol
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Published by: The Center for Health
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PREAMBLE Hurricane Katrina 4 | PREA
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6 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY With this in
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8 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Other non-lin
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THE CASE STUDIES IN BRIEF Floods in
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12 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THE CCF PROJ
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PART I: The Climate Context Today
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(see McCarthy et al. 2001). As glac
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Table 1.1 Extreme Weather Events an
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DISCONTINUITIES CLIVAR, Climate Var
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Figure 1.6 The Frequency of Weather
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Figure 1.7 Trends in Events, Losses
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• Thawing of permafrost (permanen
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CCF-II: GRADUAL WARMING WITH INCREA
Page 32 and 33: PART II: Case Studies
Page 34 and 35: CLIMATE CHANGE AND EMERGING INFECTI
Page 36 and 37: HEALTH IMPACTS Malaria is character
Page 38 and 39: Figure 2.5 Brazil N Brazil COLOMBIA
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Page 42 and 43: SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS Preventing
Page 44 and 45: 262 deaths in 2003; 7,470 cases and
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Page 48 and 49: The rise in minimum temperature res
Page 50 and 51: While the role of allergen exposure
Page 52 and 53: AIR QUALITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ISSU
Page 54 and 55: EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS 1984 and 199
Page 56 and 57: HEALTH AND ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS Heat
Page 58 and 59: Figure 2.20 Projected Excess Deaths
Page 60 and 61: THE ROLE OF CLIMATE Australia exper
Page 62 and 63: Service). Since 2002, severe floods
Page 64 and 65: Table 2.1 Economic Losses in Europe
Page 66 and 67: NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS adelgid
Page 68 and 69: created unstable conditions conduci
Page 70 and 71: Climate research has already identi
Page 72 and 73: LOSSES ASSOCIATED WITH 1993 HEAVY P
Page 74 and 75: Figure 2.28 Soybean Rust Introducti
Page 76 and 77: Table 2.3 Extreme Weather Events Ca
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Page 96 and 97: RISK SPREADING IN DEVELOPED AND DEV
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Page 108 and 109: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Jus
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Page 114 and 115: Summary Table of Extreme Weather Ev
Page 116 and 117: Table B.1 Summer Percentage Frequen
Page 118 and 119: Climate sensitivity for small-scale
Page 120 and 121: diffuse and do not manifest in sing
Page 122 and 123: APPENDIX D. LIST OF PARTICIPANTS AT
Page 124: Carmenza Robledo Gruppe Oekologie E
Page 127 and 128: 126 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Bibliography AAA
Page 129 and 130: 128 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Chordas, L. Epid
Page 131 and 132: Ford, S.E. & Tripp, M.R. Diseases a
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132 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Kalkstein, L. S.
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134 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Mills, E. The in
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136 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Rose, J. B., Eps
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138 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Vandyk, J. K., B
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Infectious and Respiratory Diseases
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Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

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