Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

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Figure 1.7 Trends in Events, Losses and Variability: 1980-2004 400 350 300 250 200 a. Number of Events Storm Flood Other weather-related Non-weather-related 50 45 40 35 30 25 c. Variability of Weather-related Economic Losses [absolute value of regression residual, $ billion (2004)] linear regression of residuals 150 20 100 15 10 50 5 0 0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 b. Insured Share of Total Losses (by Hazard) Storm (mean = 44%) Flood (mean = 7%) Other (mean = 10%) Non-WR (mean = 9%) 4000 3500 3000 2500 d. Loss Costs and Socioeconomic Drivers Index: 1980=100 total weather-related losses (nom$) insured weather-related losses (nom$) total non-weather-related losses (nom$) property insurance premiums (nom$) GDP population 0.4 2000 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 Trends in numbers of events (a), insured share (b), variability of insured losses (c) and economic impacts (d). Global insured and total weatherrelated property losses (US $45 billion and US $107 billion in 2004, respectively) are rising faster than premiums, population or economic growth. Non-inflation-adjusted economic data are shown in relation to GDP. Data exclude health/life premiums and losses. Sources: Natural hazard statistics and losses from Munich Re, NatCatSERVICE, Premiums from Swiss Re, sigma as analyzed by Mills (2005). Figure 1.8 Grid Failures From Weather and Other Causes: 1992-2002 1500 1000 500 0 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 25 | THE CLIMATE CONTEXT TODAY Undefined weather 2% Windstorm 26% Non-weather-related 38% Wildfire 3% Thunderstorm/lightning 12% Temperature extremes 1% Ice/snow 19% Analysis of historical "Grid Disturbance" data from the North American Electric Reliability Council (http://www.nerc.com/~filez/dawgdisturbancereports.html). Data include disturbances that occur on the bulk electric systems in North America, including electric service interruptions, voltage reductions, acts of sabotage, unusual occurrences that can affect the reliability of the bulk electric systems, and fuel problems. NOTE: The vast majority of outages (80-90%) occur in the local distribution network and are not tabulated here. The sum of numbers is 101% owing to rounding.
CLIMATE CHANGE CAN OCCUR ABRUPTLY Perhaps the most daunting factor complicating the task of estimating the future health and economic impacts of climate change is that most climate futures and insurance industry projections drastically underestimate the rate at which climate might change. on linear extrapolations of past trends and current trajectories, though the insurance industry has long considered “catastrophe theory” to project the impacts of sudden, extreme losses. However, these models do not predict the probabilities of such events. For climate, increasing rates of change and greater volatility are signs of instability and suggest greater propensity for sudden change (Epstein and McCarthy 2004). 26 | THE CLIMATE CONTEXT TODAY Most envisioned climate futures of international assessments to date are based on gradual projections of increasing temperatures. Some include temperature variability, and others have begun to examine variance in weather patterns. But most do not reflect the high degree of variance in weather that is already occurring and few address the potential consequences of sudden change in impacts or abrupt shifts in climate itself. The notion that climate might change suddenly, or shift from state to state, rather than change gradually — what Richard Alley calls the “switch” rather than the “dial” model for climate change — seemed like a radical notion when it first began to take hold in the early 1990s. In nature, however, sudden shifts are the rule, not the exception. Steven J. Gould’s conception of evolution as “punctuated equilibrium” depicts long periods of relative stability with gradual change, punctuated by periods of mass extinctions. These “interruptions” are then followed by the explosion of new species with new solutions to new environmental problems that fit together into new communities of organisms. On a more immediate time scale, non-linear changes are part of our daily experience. When temperatures change, liquid water can suddenly transform into a hard, latticed structure as it freezes or vaporizes, when it boils. Damage functions are also non-linear. For example, hailstones tend to bounce off of windshields until they reach a critical weight and break them. Though abrupt climate change is a ubiquitous phenomenon and is observed throughout ice, pollen, fossil and geological records (NAS 2002), the bias toward gradual, incremental change may reflect the constraints of climate models that represent our best understanding of how dynamic systems behave. Models have a difficult time incorporating step-wise changes to new states. Most industries naturally base their projections Even more challenging is the observation that changes in state can be triggered by small forces that approach (often unforeseen) thresholds or “tipping points” — and surpass them. Disease outbreaks can slowly grow in impact, for example, then suddenly become epidemics. For the climate, the transitions between glacial and interglacial warm periods can involve changes from 5-10°C (9-18°F) in the span of a decade or less (Steffan et al. 2004b). Sudden shifts are sometimes restricted in geographic scope. At other times there are global transformations (Severinghaus et al. 1998; NAS 2002; Alley et al. 2003). Many such “high impact” events that were considered “low probability” just several years ago now seem to some increasingly likely (Epstein and McCarthy 2004) or inevitable (NAS 2002). TIPPING POINTS POSSIBLE “CLIMATE SHOCKS” WITH LIMITED GEOGRAPHIC IMPACTS • Small sections of Greenland, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) or the Antarctic Peninsula could slip into the ocean, raising sea levels several inches to feet over years to several decades. o Meltwater is seeping down through crevasses in Greenland, lubricating the base of large glaciers (Krabill et al. 1999; ACIA 2005). o “Rivers of ice” in the WAIS are accelerating toward the Southern Ocean (Shepherd et al. 2001; Payne et al. 2004; Thomas et al. 2004). o Recent loss of floating ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula removes back pressure from the land-based ice sheets (Rignot and Thomas 2002). • Alpine glacial melting could accelerate, inundating communities below and diminishing water supplies for nations dependent on this source for freshwater.
Page 1 and 2: Climate Change Futures Health, Ecol
Page 3 and 4: Published by: The Center for Health
Page 5 and 6: PREAMBLE Hurricane Katrina 4 | PREA
Page 7 and 8: 6 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY With this in
Page 9 and 10: 8 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Other non-lin
Page 11 and 12: THE CASE STUDIES IN BRIEF Floods in
Page 13 and 14: 12 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THE CCF PROJ
Page 16 and 17: PART I: The Climate Context Today
Page 18 and 19: (see McCarthy et al. 2001). As glac
Page 20 and 21: Table 1.1 Extreme Weather Events an
Page 22 and 23: DISCONTINUITIES CLIVAR, Climate Var
Page 24 and 25: Figure 1.6 The Frequency of Weather
Page 28 and 29: • Thawing of permafrost (permanen
Page 30 and 31: CCF-II: GRADUAL WARMING WITH INCREA
Page 32 and 33: PART II: Case Studies
Page 34 and 35: CLIMATE CHANGE AND EMERGING INFECTI
Page 36 and 37: HEALTH IMPACTS Malaria is character
Page 38 and 39: Figure 2.5 Brazil N Brazil COLOMBIA
Page 40 and 41: estimates (over and above current a
Page 42 and 43: SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS Preventing
Page 44 and 45: 262 deaths in 2003; 7,470 cases and
Page 46 and 47: 98% of the two-year life cycle take
Page 48 and 49: The rise in minimum temperature res
Page 50 and 51: While the role of allergen exposure
Page 52 and 53: AIR QUALITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ISSU
Page 54 and 55: EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS 1984 and 199
Page 56 and 57: HEALTH AND ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS Heat
Page 58 and 59: Figure 2.20 Projected Excess Deaths
Page 60 and 61: THE ROLE OF CLIMATE Australia exper
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Page 64 and 65: Table 2.1 Economic Losses in Europe
Page 66 and 67: NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS adelgid
Page 68 and 69: created unstable conditions conduci
Page 70 and 71: Climate research has already identi
Page 72 and 73: LOSSES ASSOCIATED WITH 1993 HEAVY P
Page 74 and 75: Figure 2.28 Soybean Rust Introducti
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Table 2.3 Extreme Weather Events Ca
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General measures to reduce the impa
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Physiological stresses on reef orga
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There are many questions concerning
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• Terminating practices that dest
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ecome contaminated with viruses and
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In 2001 the IPCC fully recognized t
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While seawater desalinization is cu
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PART III: Financial Implications, S
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Figure 3.1 Reinsurance Prices Are H
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RISK SPREADING IN DEVELOPED AND DEV
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THE LIMITS OF INSURABILITY Not all
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(also known as “cash-flow underwr
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from areas plagued by persistent dr
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Engagement of the insurance industr
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Industry observers point out that p
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CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Jus
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FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS Regulators an
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of carbon-risk hedging products, su
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Summary Table of Extreme Weather Ev
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Table B.1 Summer Percentage Frequen
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Climate sensitivity for small-scale
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diffuse and do not manifest in sing
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APPENDIX D. LIST OF PARTICIPANTS AT
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Carmenza Robledo Gruppe Oekologie E
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126 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Bibliography AAA
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128 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Chordas, L. Epid
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Ford, S.E. & Tripp, M.R. Diseases a
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132 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Kalkstein, L. S.
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134 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Mills, E. The in
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136 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Rose, J. B., Eps
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138 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Vandyk, J. K., B
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Infectious and Respiratory Diseases
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Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

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