Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

Table 2.1 Economic Losses in European Nations in Euros from Flooding in 2002
Economic Losses
Insured Losses (approx.)
Austria 2-3 bn 400 m
Czech Republic 2-3 bn 900 m
Germany 9.2 bn 1.8 bn
Europe > 15 bn 3.1 bn
Between June and December 2002 the Euro exchange rate varied, with the lowest rates noted in December 2002 when
1 Euro = 0.93537 USD and the highest rate in June when 1 Euro = 1.068 USD.
THE FUTURE
CCF-I: ESCALATING IMPACTS
Floods are taking an enormous toll on lives and infrastructure
in developed and developing countries. The
Foresight Report on Future Flooding commissioned by
the UK government (Clery 2004) concluded that the
number of Britons at risk from flooding could swell from
1.6 million to 3.6 million, and that the annual damages
from flooding could soar from the current annual figure
of US $2.4 billion to about US $48 billion — 20 times
greater — in the coming decades if construction measures
are not taken to meet the challenge.
CCF-II: SURPRISE IMPACTS
Just as with heat waves, the return periods for heavy
precipitation and extensive flooding events may
decrease markedly in Europe, Asia, Africa, and in the
Americas (Katz 1999). Repeated flooding will challenge
the recovery capacities of even the apparently
least vulnerable nations.
Prolonged, repeated and extensive flooding — along
with melting of glaciers — can undermine infrastructure,
cause extensive damage to homes and spread molds,
inundate and spread fungal diseases in croplands, and
alter the integrity of landscapes. Runoff of nutrients from
farms and sewage threaten to substantially swell the 150
“dead zones” now forming in coastal waters worldwide
(UNEP 2005).
SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS
Research is needed to better understand the immediate
and chronic physical and mental health impacts of
floods. Better disease surveillance is needed during
and after flooding, especially for long-term
psycho/social impacts as a result of great losses and
the need for medical and social support in the immediate
aftermath and during the recovery period.
EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS
Climate forecasting can improve preparation for natural
disasters. Specific measures include:
• Movement of populations to higher ground.
• Use of levees and sandbags.
• Organizing boats for transport and rescue.
• Storage of food, water and medicines.
In countries where flood risk is likely to increase, a comprehensive
vulnerability-based emergency management
program of preparedness, response and recovery has
the potential to reduce the adverse health impacts of
floods. These plans need to be formulated at local,
regional and national levels and include activities to
decrease vulnerabilities before, during and after floods.
GENERAL MEASURES
• Appropriate housing and commercial development
policies.
• Transportation systems tailored to protect open space,
forests, wetlands and shorelines. (Forests act as
sponges for precipitation; riparian (riverside) stands
protect watersheds; and wetlands absorb runoff and
filter discharges flowing into bays and estuaries.)
• Livestock farming practices (especially Concentrated
Animal Feeding Operations or CAFOs) must be regulated
and properly buffered (for example, surrounded
by wetlands) to reduce wastes discharged into waterways
during floods (see Townsend et al. 2003).
• Insurance policies can directly incorporate the potential
for flooding, especially where it has previously
occurred, to reduce the number of people and structures
“in harm’s way.”
• Economic and social incentives are needed to resettle
populations away from flood plains.
63 | EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
CASE STUDIES