Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

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CCF-II: GRADUAL WARMING WITH INCREASING VARIABILITY: SURPRISE IMPACTS Even within the conditions of climate change underlying the first impact scenario — gradual warming and increasing variance — there is the possibility of sudden and catastrophic impacts on health, ecosystems and economies. Widespread epidemics, explosive crop and forest infestations, and coral reef collapse could severely damage the social fabric. Note again: This is not a scenario of abrupt change in the physical climate system; it is a scenario of surprises and widespread impacts due to growing instability in climate. The effects of “climate shocks” and potential triggers for abrupt climate change outlined above extend far beyond these impact scenarios, and the implications of such major transformations in the global climate system are too vast as to be considered in monetary terms. In this scenario of non-linear impacts, disruptions would be greater and the economic costs of natural catastrophes would rise abruptly. Recurrent devastating storms would render current adaptation methods less effective and more costly. With non-linear impacts appearing in many regions simultaneously, the ability of business, governments and international organizations to respond would become critically taxed. This scenario would be more challenging for insurers and other risk managers due to increasing uncertainty. Extreme heat catastrophes become more common and widespread in CCF-II. Events on a par with that seen in Europe in the summer of 2003 affect many parts of the globe. Temperature records are broken in numerous megacities as they are subjected to oppressive and unhealthy air masses. Heat-related morbidity and mortality rise from 200% to 500% above long-term averages. The potential decrease in winter illnesses is negated by increasing variability of temperatures (Braga et al. 2001) and more sudden cold spells, plus rain, snow and ice storms. Winter travel and ambulation become extremely hazardous during some years (EPA 2001). The increase in epidemics of infectious diseases, especially following disasters, strain existing health care and public health infrastructure, halting or reversing economic growth in some underdeveloped nations. More frequent disease outbreaks also take a toll on productivity, tourism, trade and travel, crippling the climate of investment in “emerging markets” and the availability of insurance in some sectors. Air quality deteriorates. The combination of rising pollen and soil mold counts from CO 2 -fertilization; greater heat, humidity and particulate-filled hazes; smog and oppressive nights; respiratory irritants from widespread summer fires; and dust clouds transported from expanding deserts exacerbates upper and lower airway disease and cardiovascular conditions (Griffen et al. 2001). The changing climate alters the prevalence and spatial extent of crop pests and diseases around the globe. Populations of insect herbivores like locust explode in some regions — as they did in northern Africa and southern Europe in the summer of 2004 — greatly decreasing crop yields. Increased CO 2 contributes to more vigorous weed growth and the worldwide crop losses today attributed to pests, pathogens and weeds increases from the current 42% (Altaman 1993; Pimentel and Bashore 1998) to over 50% of potential yields. Crop damage from drought, storms, floods and extreme heat episodes compound the disease-related losses. Yields are decimated in some regions, leading to widespread famine, debilitating epidemics and political instability. Looming in such a scenario is the potential for a rapid, widespread climate- and disease-induced dieback of forests. The combination of multi-year droughts; warm, dry winters leaving little mountain snowpack; and an explosion of pests, such as bark beetles, leaf miners, opportunistic fungi and aphids affecting weakened trees, would create vast dead stands that provide fuel for wide-scale fires. Such massive losses of forest cover and transformations of terrestrial habitat would send reverberations through nature and human society, affecting birds and other wildlife, lumber and water quality and availability. As a final insult, widespread fires in these increasingly flammable forests would release large carbon pulses, adding to global warming and altering forest soils that provide an essential “sink” for storing carbon. Finally, coral reefs weaken (physically and biologically). Surface ocean warming and disease compound the stress on the reefs already generated by overfishing, and by human and industrial waste. Most of the globe’s tropical ring of reefs collapses, while sea level rise and higher storm and tidal surges inundate coastal 29 | THE CLIMATE CONTEXT TODAY
communities, salinizing ground water and under-island freshwater lenses (the pocket of fresh water underlying inhabitable islands), which affects agriculture, human health and habitability. The compounding effects of such massive and concurrent losses become visible in many lines of the insurance business. As a result, insurers withdraw from segments in a variety of markets, particularly coastlines and shores vulnerable to sea level rise and loss of barrier habitat. Contraction by insurers has a dampening effect on economic activity. In the largely uninsured developing world, climate change impacts displace large populations, putting great stress on the nations receiving the exodus. Social instability also triggers “political risk” insurance systems that insure against expropriation or nationalization of assets or losses resulting from politically motivated violence, such as civil or cross-boundary conflict. 30 | THE CLIMATE CONTEXT TODAY Meanwhile, insurance companies have difficulty raising deductibles commensurate with the losses and adopting adequate loss limits, effectively deeming certain events uninsurable and thus shifting a share of the losses back to individuals or governments (Mills et al. 2005). In cases where commercial insurance is no longer available, already beleaguered public insurance systems attempt to fill the void, but many nations find it increasingly difficult to absorb the costs. Part II of this report delves into case studies of health conditions and extreme weather events underpinning these two potential futures.
Page 1 and 2: Climate Change Futures Health, Ecol
Page 3 and 4: Published by: The Center for Health
Page 5 and 6: PREAMBLE Hurricane Katrina 4 | PREA
Page 7 and 8: 6 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY With this in
Page 9 and 10: 8 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Other non-lin
Page 11 and 12: THE CASE STUDIES IN BRIEF Floods in
Page 13 and 14: 12 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THE CCF PROJ
Page 16 and 17: PART I: The Climate Context Today
Page 18 and 19: (see McCarthy et al. 2001). As glac
Page 20 and 21: Table 1.1 Extreme Weather Events an
Page 22 and 23: DISCONTINUITIES CLIVAR, Climate Var
Page 24 and 25: Figure 1.6 The Frequency of Weather
Page 26 and 27: Figure 1.7 Trends in Events, Losses
Page 28 and 29: • Thawing of permafrost (permanen
Page 32 and 33: PART II: Case Studies
Page 34 and 35: CLIMATE CHANGE AND EMERGING INFECTI
Page 36 and 37: HEALTH IMPACTS Malaria is character
Page 38 and 39: Figure 2.5 Brazil N Brazil COLOMBIA
Page 40 and 41: estimates (over and above current a
Page 42 and 43: SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS Preventing
Page 44 and 45: 262 deaths in 2003; 7,470 cases and
Page 46 and 47: 98% of the two-year life cycle take
Page 48 and 49: The rise in minimum temperature res
Page 50 and 51: While the role of allergen exposure
Page 52 and 53: AIR QUALITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ISSU
Page 54 and 55: EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS 1984 and 199
Page 56 and 57: HEALTH AND ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS Heat
Page 58 and 59: Figure 2.20 Projected Excess Deaths
Page 60 and 61: THE ROLE OF CLIMATE Australia exper
Page 62 and 63: Service). Since 2002, severe floods
Page 64 and 65: Table 2.1 Economic Losses in Europe
Page 66 and 67: NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS adelgid
Page 68 and 69: created unstable conditions conduci
Page 70 and 71: Climate research has already identi
Page 72 and 73: LOSSES ASSOCIATED WITH 1993 HEAVY P
Page 74 and 75: Figure 2.28 Soybean Rust Introducti
Page 76 and 77: Table 2.3 Extreme Weather Events Ca
Page 78 and 79: General measures to reduce the impa
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Physiological stresses on reef orga
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There are many questions concerning
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• Terminating practices that dest
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ecome contaminated with viruses and
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In 2001 the IPCC fully recognized t
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While seawater desalinization is cu
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PART III: Financial Implications, S
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Figure 3.1 Reinsurance Prices Are H
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RISK SPREADING IN DEVELOPED AND DEV
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THE LIMITS OF INSURABILITY Not all
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(also known as “cash-flow underwr
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from areas plagued by persistent dr
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Engagement of the insurance industr
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Industry observers point out that p
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CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Jus
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FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS Regulators an
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of carbon-risk hedging products, su
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Summary Table of Extreme Weather Ev
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Table B.1 Summer Percentage Frequen
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Climate sensitivity for small-scale
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diffuse and do not manifest in sing
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APPENDIX D. LIST OF PARTICIPANTS AT
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Carmenza Robledo Gruppe Oekologie E
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126 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Bibliography AAA
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128 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Chordas, L. Epid
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Ford, S.E. & Tripp, M.R. Diseases a
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132 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Kalkstein, L. S.
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134 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Mills, E. The in
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136 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Rose, J. B., Eps
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138 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Vandyk, J. K., B
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Infectious and Respiratory Diseases
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Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

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