Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

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General measures to reduce the impacts of weather extremes and infestations include: • No tillage agriculture. • Maintaining crop diversity that helps limit disease spread. • Maintaining flowering plants that support pollinating insects and birds. • Maintaining trees around plots that serve as windbreakers and provide homes for worm- and insect-eating birds. • Integrated pest management and organic farming, as toxic chemicals can kill pollinators (birds, bees and butterflies), predators of herbivorous insects (ladybugs and parasitic wasps), and predators of rodents (owls, hawks and eagles). • Appropriate national and international food policies (subsidies, tariffs, prices) are needed to provide the proper incentives for sustainable agriculture. The farming sector can also profitably contribute to climate solutions. Such measures include: • Soil and plant biomass carbon sequestration. • Methane capture for energy generation. • Plants and animals used to produce biofuels. • Plants for biodiesel. • Solar panel arrays. • Wind farms. Integrated systems, with a diversity of crops and of surrounding ecological zones, can provide strong generalized defenses in the face of weather extremes, pest infestations and invasive species. The mitigation options to absorb carbon and generate energy cleanly can become a significant part of farming activities and contribute significantly to stabilizing the climate. MARINE ECOSYSTEMS CASE 1. THE TROPICAL CORAL REEF Raymond L. Hayes BACKGROUND Threats to coral reefs constitute one of the earliest and clearest marine ecosystem impacts of global climate change. Coral reefs are in danger worldwide from warming-induced bleaching and multiple emerging diseases. Their decline was first apparent in the early 1980s and reef death has progressed steadily since (Williams and Bunkley-Williams 1990). Approximately 27% of reefs worldwide have been degraded by bleaching, while another 60% are deemed highly vulnerable to bleaching, disease and subsequent overgrowth by macro-algae (Bryant et al. 1998). Mortality of reefs in the Caribbean islands of Jamaica, Haiti and the Dominican Republic is now over 80% (Burke 2004). This level of impact — with continued ocean warming and pollution — could lead to collapse of the reefs entirely within several decades. While ecological systems can reach thresholds and collapse suddenly, their recovery and reorganization into a new equilibrium could be very slow (Maslin 2000). Coral reefs provide numerous ecological functions for marine life and serve as physical buffers that protect low-lying tropical islands and coastal zones against storms. The total value of reef-related shoreline protective services in the Caribbean region has been estimated to be between US $740 million and US $2.2 billion per year. Depending upon the degree of development, this coastal-protection benefit ranges from US $2,000 to US $1,000,000 per kilometer of coastline (Burke and Maidens 2004). 77 | NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS CASE STUDIES
78 | NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS THE ROLE OF CLIMATE Reefs are very sensitive to temperature anomalies. Although some coral colonies inhabit deep water and temperate water niches, reef-building corals are restricted to shallow, near-shore waters and to a temperature range of only a few degrees Celsius. Optimal temperature for coral vitality and skeletal production is 25- 28°C (McNeil et al. 2004). With annual warm season sea temperature maxima now approaching 30°C, reef-building corals are losing their efficiency for frame construction and repair. When sea temperature persists for a month or more above 30°C (86°F), or reach a 1°C (1.8°F), anomaly above long-term seasonal averages during the warmest season of the year (see map, figure 2.31), bleaching occurs in reef organisms harboring algal symbionts. Also, more frequent and intense extreme events, including hurricanes, cyclones, torrential rainfall and mudslides can cause reef frame breakage, sedimentation, microbial and planktonic proliferation, runoff of chemical pollutants from terrestrial sources, and shore erosion. All of these insults degrade reef ecosystem integrity and coral vitality. Frame damage to coral reefs following storm activity, especially among fragile branching corals and exposed coral mounds, is documented (Nowlis et al. 1997). However, subtle damage to interactive balances within the reef ecosystem may not be as evident and can only be appreciated through physiological data. Figure 2.31 Sea Surface Temperatures and Coral Bleaching Apart from warming, CO 2 causes acidification of the oceans and depletion of calcium from coral reefs could kill all coral organisms by 2065 (Steffan et al. 2004a Orr et al. 2005; Pelejero et al. 2005), though some researchers believe the ocean warming itself may alter this projected outcome (McNeil et al. 2004). Climate change is the principal agent forcing change in the coastal oceans. Atmospheric warming due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases offers the source of excess heat that rapidly equilibrates in the world's oceans (Levitus et al. 2000). The rate of warming in surface waters exceeds the rate of evaporation of humidity back into the atmosphere. The reverse gradient of warm hypersaline surface water sinks to give reefs exposure to high temperatures. Excessive warming of coastal oceans, especially during the warmest months of the year, coupled with inadequate relief from warming during the coolest months of the year, have pushed the coral reef ecosystems beyond their thermal limit for survival (Goreau and Hayes 1994). In response to warming, marine microbes that are responsible for diseases of reef-building corals also thrive. They proliferate, colonize and invade coral tissues, producing tissue infection and ultimately, coral death. CASE STUDIES 14-year cumulative sea surface temperature anomalies and areas of coral bleaching indicated by red circles. Years with El Niño events and volcanic eruptions have been removed from the data set. Yellow indicates temperatures 1°C above the mean temperature; orange indicates anomalies 2°C above the long-term average. Source: (Base map) Climate Diagnostics Bulletin, NOAA AVHRR Satellite Database, 1982-2003 and (data) Ray Hayes and Tom Goreau
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Climate Change Futures Health, Ecol
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Published by: The Center for Health
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PREAMBLE Hurricane Katrina 4 | PREA
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6 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY With this in
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8 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Other non-lin
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THE CASE STUDIES IN BRIEF Floods in
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12 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THE CCF PROJ
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PART I: The Climate Context Today
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(see McCarthy et al. 2001). As glac
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Table 1.1 Extreme Weather Events an
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DISCONTINUITIES CLIVAR, Climate Var
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Figure 1.6 The Frequency of Weather
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Figure 1.7 Trends in Events, Losses
Page 28 and 29: • Thawing of permafrost (permanen
Page 30 and 31: CCF-II: GRADUAL WARMING WITH INCREA
Page 32 and 33: PART II: Case Studies
Page 34 and 35: CLIMATE CHANGE AND EMERGING INFECTI
Page 36 and 37: HEALTH IMPACTS Malaria is character
Page 38 and 39: Figure 2.5 Brazil N Brazil COLOMBIA
Page 40 and 41: estimates (over and above current a
Page 42 and 43: SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS Preventing
Page 44 and 45: 262 deaths in 2003; 7,470 cases and
Page 46 and 47: 98% of the two-year life cycle take
Page 48 and 49: The rise in minimum temperature res
Page 50 and 51: While the role of allergen exposure
Page 52 and 53: AIR QUALITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ISSU
Page 54 and 55: EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS 1984 and 199
Page 56 and 57: HEALTH AND ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS Heat
Page 58 and 59: Figure 2.20 Projected Excess Deaths
Page 60 and 61: THE ROLE OF CLIMATE Australia exper
Page 62 and 63: Service). Since 2002, severe floods
Page 64 and 65: Table 2.1 Economic Losses in Europe
Page 66 and 67: NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS adelgid
Page 68 and 69: created unstable conditions conduci
Page 70 and 71: Climate research has already identi
Page 72 and 73: LOSSES ASSOCIATED WITH 1993 HEAVY P
Page 74 and 75: Figure 2.28 Soybean Rust Introducti
Page 76 and 77: Table 2.3 Extreme Weather Events Ca
Page 80 and 81: Physiological stresses on reef orga
Page 82 and 83: There are many questions concerning
Page 84 and 85: • Terminating practices that dest
Page 86 and 87: ecome contaminated with viruses and
Page 88 and 89: In 2001 the IPCC fully recognized t
Page 90 and 91: While seawater desalinization is cu
Page 92 and 93: PART III: Financial Implications, S
Page 94 and 95: Figure 3.1 Reinsurance Prices Are H
Page 96 and 97: RISK SPREADING IN DEVELOPED AND DEV
Page 98 and 99: THE LIMITS OF INSURABILITY Not all
Page 100 and 101: (also known as “cash-flow underwr
Page 102 and 103: from areas plagued by persistent dr
Page 104 and 105: Engagement of the insurance industr
Page 106 and 107: Industry observers point out that p
Page 108 and 109: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Jus
Page 110 and 111: FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS Regulators an
Page 112 and 113: of carbon-risk hedging products, su
Page 114 and 115: Summary Table of Extreme Weather Ev
Page 116 and 117: Table B.1 Summer Percentage Frequen
Page 118 and 119: Climate sensitivity for small-scale
Page 120 and 121: diffuse and do not manifest in sing
Page 122 and 123: APPENDIX D. LIST OF PARTICIPANTS AT
Page 124: Carmenza Robledo Gruppe Oekologie E
Page 127 and 128: 126 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Bibliography AAA
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128 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Chordas, L. Epid
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Ford, S.E. & Tripp, M.R. Diseases a
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132 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Kalkstein, L. S.
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134 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Mills, E. The in
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136 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Rose, J. B., Eps
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138 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Vandyk, J. K., B
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Infectious and Respiratory Diseases
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