Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

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Table of Contents Introduction Part I. The Climate Context Today Part II. Case Studies Part III. Financial Implications, Scenarios and Solutions Appendices 4 5 16 21 26 27 32 32 41 45 48 53 53 53 58 60 65 65 70 77 77 83 86 92 95 97 97 102 103 105 107 112 114 116 121 126 Preamble Executive Summary The Problem: Climate is Changing, Fast Trend Analyses: Extreme Weather Events and Costs Climate Change Can Occur Abruptly The Climate Change Futures Scenarios Infectious and Respiratory Diseases Malaria West Nile Virus Lyme Disease Carbon Dioxide and Aeroallergens Extreme Weather Events Heat Waves Case 1. European Heat Wave and Analogs for US Cities Case 2. Analog for New South Wales, Australia Floods Natural and Managed Systems Forests Agriculture Marine Ecosystems Case 1. The Tropical Coral Reef Case 2. Marine Shellfish Water Financial Implications Risk Spreading in Developed and Developing Nations The Limits of Insurability Business Scenarios Constructive Roles for Insurers and Reinsurers Optimizing Strategies for Adaptation and Mitigation Summary of Financial Sector Measures Conclusions and Recommendations Policies and Measures Appendix A. Summary Table/Extreme Weather Events and Impacts Appendix B. Additional Findings and Methods for The US Analog Studies of Heat Waves Appendix C. Finance: Property Insurance Dynamics Appendix D. List of Participants, Swiss Re Centre for Global Dialogue Bibliography
PREAMBLE Hurricane Katrina 4 | PREAMBLE What was once a worst-case scenario for the US Gulf Coast occurred in August 2005. Hurricane Katrina killed hundreds and sickened thousands, created one million displaced persons, and sent ripples throughout the global economy, exposing the vulnerabilities of all nations to climate extremes. While no one event is conclusive evidence of climate change, the relentless pace of severe weather — prolonged droughts, intense heat waves, violent windstorms, more wildfires and more frequent “100- year” floods — is indicative of a changing climate. Although the associations among greater weather volatility, natural cycles and climate change are debated, the rise in mega-catastrophes and prolonged widespread heat waves is, at the very least, a harbinger of what we can expect in a changing and unstable climate. For the insurance sector, climate change threatens the Life & Health and Property & Casualty businesses, as well as the health of insurers’ investments. Managing and transferring risks are the first responses of the insurance industry — and rising insurance premiums and exclusions are already making front-page news. Many corporations are changing practices and some are seizing business opportunities for products aimed at reducing risks. Corporations and institutional investors have begun to consider public policies needed to encourage investments in clean energy on a scale commensurate with the heightened climate and energy crises. The scientific findings underlying the unexpected pace and magnitude of climate change demonstrate that greenhouse gases have contributed significantly to the oceans’ warming at a rate 22 times more than the atmosphere since 1950. Enhanced evaporation from warmer seas fuels heavier downpours and sequences of storms. Polar ice is melting at rates unforeseen in the 1990s. As meltwater seeps down to lubricate their base, some Greenland outlet glaciers are moving 14 kilometers per year, twice as fast as in 2001, making linear projections for sea level rise this century no longer applicable. North Atlantic freshening — from melting ice and Arctic rainfall — is shifting the circulation pattern that has helped stabilize climates for millennia. Indeed, the slowing of the Ocean Conveyor Belt and the degree of storm destructiveness are occurring at rates and intensities that past models had projected would occur much later on in this century. Warm ocean waters fuel hurricanes. This image depicts the three-day average of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from August 25-27, 2005, and the growing breadth of Hurricane Katrina as it passed over the warm Gulf of Mexico. Yellow, orange and red areas are at or above 82 0 F (27.7°C), the temperature needed for hurricanes to strengthen. By late August SSTs in the Gulf were well over 90 0 F (32.2°C). Source: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center/Scientific Visualization Studio Nonetheless, if we drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, our climate may reach a new and potentially acceptable equilibrium, affording a modicum of predictability. Doing so, however, requires a more sustainable energy mix that takes into account health and environmental concerns, as well as economic feasibility to power our common future. At this time, energy prices and supplies, political conflicts and climate instability are converging to stimulate the development of a new energy plan. Expanded use of new energy-generation and efficiency-enhancing technologies, involving green buildings, solar, wind, tidal, geothermal, hybrids and combined cycle energy systems, can become the engine of growth for this century. The financial sector, having first sensed the integrated economic impacts of global climate change, has a special role to play: to help develop incentivizing rewards, rules and regulations. This report examines a wide spectrum of physical and biological risks we face from an unstable climate. It also aims to further the development of healthy, safe and economically feasible energy solutions that can help stabilize the global climate system. These solutions should also enhance public health, improve energy security and stimulate economic growth. – Paul Epstein and Evan Mills
Page 1 and 2: Climate Change Futures Health, Ecol
Page 3: Published by: The Center for Health
Page 7 and 8: 6 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY With this in
Page 9 and 10: 8 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Other non-lin
Page 11 and 12: THE CASE STUDIES IN BRIEF Floods in
Page 13 and 14: 12 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THE CCF PROJ
Page 16 and 17: PART I: The Climate Context Today
Page 18 and 19: (see McCarthy et al. 2001). As glac
Page 20 and 21: Table 1.1 Extreme Weather Events an
Page 22 and 23: DISCONTINUITIES CLIVAR, Climate Var
Page 24 and 25: Figure 1.6 The Frequency of Weather
Page 26 and 27: Figure 1.7 Trends in Events, Losses
Page 28 and 29: • Thawing of permafrost (permanen
Page 30 and 31: CCF-II: GRADUAL WARMING WITH INCREA
Page 32 and 33: PART II: Case Studies
Page 34 and 35: CLIMATE CHANGE AND EMERGING INFECTI
Page 36 and 37: HEALTH IMPACTS Malaria is character
Page 38 and 39: Figure 2.5 Brazil N Brazil COLOMBIA
Page 40 and 41: estimates (over and above current a
Page 42 and 43: SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS Preventing
Page 44 and 45: 262 deaths in 2003; 7,470 cases and
Page 46 and 47: 98% of the two-year life cycle take
Page 48 and 49: The rise in minimum temperature res
Page 50 and 51: While the role of allergen exposure
Page 52 and 53: AIR QUALITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ISSU
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EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS 1984 and 199
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HEALTH AND ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS Heat
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Figure 2.20 Projected Excess Deaths
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THE ROLE OF CLIMATE Australia exper
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Service). Since 2002, severe floods
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Table 2.1 Economic Losses in Europe
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NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS adelgid
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created unstable conditions conduci
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Climate research has already identi
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LOSSES ASSOCIATED WITH 1993 HEAVY P
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Figure 2.28 Soybean Rust Introducti
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Table 2.3 Extreme Weather Events Ca
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General measures to reduce the impa
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Physiological stresses on reef orga
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There are many questions concerning
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• Terminating practices that dest
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ecome contaminated with viruses and
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In 2001 the IPCC fully recognized t
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While seawater desalinization is cu
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PART III: Financial Implications, S
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Figure 3.1 Reinsurance Prices Are H
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RISK SPREADING IN DEVELOPED AND DEV
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THE LIMITS OF INSURABILITY Not all
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(also known as “cash-flow underwr
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from areas plagued by persistent dr
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Engagement of the insurance industr
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Industry observers point out that p
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CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Jus
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FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS Regulators an
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of carbon-risk hedging products, su
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Summary Table of Extreme Weather Ev
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Table B.1 Summer Percentage Frequen
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Climate sensitivity for small-scale
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diffuse and do not manifest in sing
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APPENDIX D. LIST OF PARTICIPANTS AT
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Carmenza Robledo Gruppe Oekologie E
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126 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Bibliography AAA
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128 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Chordas, L. Epid
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Ford, S.E. & Tripp, M.R. Diseases a
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132 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Kalkstein, L. S.
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134 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Mills, E. The in
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136 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Rose, J. B., Eps
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138 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Vandyk, J. K., B
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Infectious and Respiratory Diseases
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Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

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