Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

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Table 2.1 Economic Losses in European Nations in Euros from Flooding in 2002 Economic Losses Insured Losses (approx.) Austria 2-3 bn 400 m Czech Republic 2-3 bn 900 m Germany 9.2 bn 1.8 bn Europe > 15 bn 3.1 bn Between June and December 2002 the Euro exchange rate varied, with the lowest rates noted in December 2002 when 1 Euro = 0.93537 USD and the highest rate in June when 1 Euro = 1.068 USD. THE FUTURE CCF-I: ESCALATING IMPACTS Floods are taking an enormous toll on lives and infrastructure in developed and developing countries. The Foresight Report on Future Flooding commissioned by the UK government (Clery 2004) concluded that the number of Britons at risk from flooding could swell from 1.6 million to 3.6 million, and that the annual damages from flooding could soar from the current annual figure of US $2.4 billion to about US $48 billion — 20 times greater — in the coming decades if construction measures are not taken to meet the challenge. CCF-II: SURPRISE IMPACTS Just as with heat waves, the return periods for heavy precipitation and extensive flooding events may decrease markedly in Europe, Asia, Africa, and in the Americas (Katz 1999). Repeated flooding will challenge the recovery capacities of even the apparently least vulnerable nations. Prolonged, repeated and extensive flooding — along with melting of glaciers — can undermine infrastructure, cause extensive damage to homes and spread molds, inundate and spread fungal diseases in croplands, and alter the integrity of landscapes. Runoff of nutrients from farms and sewage threaten to substantially swell the 150 “dead zones” now forming in coastal waters worldwide (UNEP 2005). SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS Research is needed to better understand the immediate and chronic physical and mental health impacts of floods. Better disease surveillance is needed during and after flooding, especially for long-term psycho/social impacts as a result of great losses and the need for medical and social support in the immediate aftermath and during the recovery period. EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS Climate forecasting can improve preparation for natural disasters. Specific measures include: • Movement of populations to higher ground. • Use of levees and sandbags. • Organizing boats for transport and rescue. • Storage of food, water and medicines. In countries where flood risk is likely to increase, a comprehensive vulnerability-based emergency management program of preparedness, response and recovery has the potential to reduce the adverse health impacts of floods. These plans need to be formulated at local, regional and national levels and include activities to decrease vulnerabilities before, during and after floods. GENERAL MEASURES • Appropriate housing and commercial development policies. • Transportation systems tailored to protect open space, forests, wetlands and shorelines. (Forests act as sponges for precipitation; riparian (riverside) stands protect watersheds; and wetlands absorb runoff and filter discharges flowing into bays and estuaries.) • Livestock farming practices (especially Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations or CAFOs) must be regulated and properly buffered (for example, surrounded by wetlands) to reduce wastes discharged into waterways during floods (see Townsend et al. 2003). • Insurance policies can directly incorporate the potential for flooding, especially where it has previously occurred, to reduce the number of people and structures “in harm’s way.” • Economic and social incentives are needed to resettle populations away from flood plains. 63 | EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS CASE STUDIES
Table 2.2 Direct and Indirect Health Effects of Floods Direct effects Causes Stream flow velocity; topographic land features; absence of warning; rapid speed of flood onset; deep floodwaters; landslides; risk behavior; fast flowing waters carrying boulders and fallen trees Contact with water Contact with polluted water Increase of physical and emotional stress Drowning Injuries Health Implications Respiratory diseases; shock; hypothermia; cardiac arrest Wound infections; dermatitis; conjunctivitis; gastrointestinal illness; ear, nose and throat infections; possible serious waterborne diseases Increase of susceptibility to psychosocial disturbances and cardiovascular incidents 64 | EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS Indirect effects Causes Damage to water supply systems; sewage and sewage disposal damage; insufficient supply of drinking water; insufficient water supply for washing Disruption of transport systems Underground pipe disruption; dislodgement of storage tanks; overflow of toxic-waste sites; release of chemicals; Rupture of gasoline storage tanks may lead to fires Standing waters; heavy rainfalls; expanded range of vector habitats Rodent migration Disruption of social networks; loss of property, jobs and family members and friends Clean-up activities following floods Destruction of primary food products Damage to health services; disruption of “normal” health service activities Health Implications Possible waterborne infections (enterogenic E. coli, shigella, hepatitis A, leptospirosis, giardiasis, campylobacter), dermatitis and conjunctivitis Food shortage; disruption of emergency response Potential acute or chronic effects of chemical pollution Vector-borne diseases Possible diseases caused by rodents Possible psychosocial disturbances Electrocutions; injuries; lacerations; skin punctures Food shortage Decrease of “normal” health care services, insufficient access to medical care Source: Menne et al., 2000. Floods and public health consequences, prevention and control measures. UN, 2000. (MP.WAT/SEM.2/1999/22) CASE STUDIES
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Climate Change Futures Health, Ecol
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Published by: The Center for Health
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PREAMBLE Hurricane Katrina 4 | PREA
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6 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY With this in
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8 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Other non-lin
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THE CASE STUDIES IN BRIEF Floods in
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Page 30 and 31: CCF-II: GRADUAL WARMING WITH INCREA
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Page 36 and 37: HEALTH IMPACTS Malaria is character
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Page 42 and 43: SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS Preventing
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Summary Table of Extreme Weather Ev
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Table B.1 Summer Percentage Frequen
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Climate sensitivity for small-scale
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diffuse and do not manifest in sing
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APPENDIX D. LIST OF PARTICIPANTS AT
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Carmenza Robledo Gruppe Oekologie E
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126 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Bibliography AAA
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128 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Chordas, L. Epid
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Ford, S.E. & Tripp, M.R. Diseases a
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132 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Kalkstein, L. S.
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134 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Mills, E. The in
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136 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Rose, J. B., Eps
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138 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Vandyk, J. K., B
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Infectious and Respiratory Diseases
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Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

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