Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

In the summer of 2005, northern Spain and the north
and midsections of Portugal experienced fires of a similar
magnitude.
found that variability in weather over a seasonal scale
helps account for the magnitudes of European summer
heat waves.
56 | EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
CASE STUDIES
ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS
The economic losses included life insurance payments
for heat wave and wildfire deaths, property damage
and direct health costs, including hospital stays, clinic
treatments and ambulance rides. The livestock and
crop losses (largely uninsured by private companies)
were approximately US $12.3 billion, including US
$230 million in Switzerland. Potato, wine, cereal and
green fodder production were all seriously affected
(UNEP 2004). Fire and timber losses included
400,000 acres in Portugal (approximately 14% of its
forest cover), costing about US $1.6 billion. And the
cost of monitoring and preparations in subsequent
years was estimated to be US $500 million annually.
ECONOMIC AND
HEALTH PATHWAYS
• Lives lost
• Health care costs
• Life insurance policies
• Losses in productivity
• Agricultural and livestock losses
• Wildfires
• Hydroelectric power losses
• Business interruptions
• Travel restrictions
• Tourism losses
Airlines, hotels, restaurants, auto rental agencies and
the skiing industry were also affected; there were business
interruptions and conference cancellations (minimal,
as it was summer) and interruptions of power due
to overheating of cooling water for nuclear power
plants. Over the summer of 2003 electricity spot
prices rose beyond EU 100 (US $130) per MWh
(Allen and Lord 2004; Schar and Jendritzky 2004;
Stott et al. 2004).
THE FUTURE
CCF-I: ESCALATING IMPACTS
Models of heatwave impacts for the next several
decades project a doubling to tripling of mortality in
many urban centers in the US. Absent from these models
are projections of variability. Schar et al. (2004)
Heat waves in developing nations present even
greater threats, as resources are often inadequate and
more people live under vulnerable conditions. In the
summer of 2003, while Europe sweltered, Andhra
Pradesh, India, experienced temperatures of 122°F
with over 1,400 heat-related deaths, followed by
heavy rains and an outbreak of the mosquito-borne
Japanese B encephalitis.
Heat waves of the magnitudes projected by linear
models over the next several decades could tax health
facilities, public health officials, insurance companies,
and energy grids. The potential for brown- and blackouts
increases with the intensity, geographic extent and
the duration of heat waves.
CCF-II: SURPRISE IMPACTS
What if Europe’s extreme summer
of 2003 came to the US?
Given the magnitude and duration of the event in
Europe in summer 2003, it is clear that linear models
do not accurately reflect the potential degree of
extremes in the near future. A heat wave of similar
magnitude in the US could have wide-ranging
impacts, including overload of the power grid, increasing
the potential for wide-scale blackouts and business
interruptions.
Heat waves have the potential to cause significant mortality
among the elderly and children over the coming
century. In addition, electricity grids are inadequate to
absorb the additional loads. Brownouts and blackouts
would further exacerbate the health impacts of heat
waves, affecting air conditioning and treatment facilities.
Here we analyze analogs of the 2003 heat wave for
five US cities: Detroit, New York, Philadelphia, St.
Louis and Washington, DC. As this unprecedented
heat event in Europe is now part of the historical
record, a realistic analog can be used to assess the
risks of increasing heat on these cities that is independent
of general circulation models (GCMs) and arbitrary
scenarios. The analogs can be utilized for
impact-related climate analysis in a variety of areas,
including agriculture, forestry, infectious disease, water
resources and the energy infrastructure.