Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

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CLIMATE CHANGE FUTURES Health, Ecological and Economic Dimensions A Project of: The Center for Health and the Global Environment Harvard Medical School Sponsored by: Swiss Re United Nations Development Programme
Published by: The Center for Health and the Global Environment Harvard Medical School With support from: Swiss Re United Nations Development Programme Edited by: Paul R. Epstein and Evan Mills Contributing editors: Kathleen Frith, Eugene Linden, Brian Thomas and Robert Weireter Graphics: Emily Huhn and Rebecca Lincoln Art Directors/Design: Evelyn Pandozi and Juan Pertuz Contributing authors: Pamela Anderson, John Brownstein, Ulisses Confalonieri, Douglas Causey, Nathan Chan, Kristie L. Ebi, Jonathan H. Epstein, J. Scott Greene, Ray Hayes, Eileen Hofmann, Laurence S. Kalkstein, Tord Kjellstrom, Rebecca Lincoln, Anthony J. McMichael, Charles McNeill, David Mills, Avaleigh Milne, Alan D. Perrin, Geetha Ranmuthugala, Christine Rogers, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Colin L. Soskolne, Gary Tabor, Marta Vicarelli, X.B. Yang Reviewers: Frank Ackerman, Adrienne Atwell, Tim Barnett, Virginia Burkett, Colin Butler, Eric Chivian, Richard Clapp, Stephen K. Dishart, Tee L. Guidotti, Elisabet Lindgren, James J. McCarthy, Ivo Menzinger, Richard Murray, David Pimentel, Jan von Overbeck, R.K. Pachauri, Claire L. Parkinson, Kilaparti Ramakrishna, Walter V. Reid, David Rind, Earl Saxon, Ellen-Mosley Thompson, Robert Unsworth, Christopher Walker Additional contributors to the CCF project: Juan Almendares, Peter Bridgewater, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, Manuel Cesario, Michael B. Clark, Annie Coleman, James Congram, Paul Clements-Hunt, Peter Daszak, Amy Davidsen, Henry Diaz, Peter Duerig, David Easterling, Find Findsen, David Foster, Geoffrey Heal, Chris Hunter, Pascal Girot, H.N.B. Gopalan, Nicholas Graham, James Hansen, Pamela Heck, Daniel Hillel, Steve Howard, Ilyse Hogue, Anna Iglesias, Sonila Jacob, Maaike Jansen, Kurt Karl, William Karesh, Sivan Kartha, Thomas Kelly, Thomas Krafft, Gerry Lemcke, Mindy Lubber, Jeffrey A. McNeely, Sue Mainka, Leslie Malone, Pim Martens, Rachel Massey, Bettina Menne, Irving Mintzer, Teofilo Monteiro, Norman Myers, Peter Neoftis, Frank Nutter, Buruhani Nyenzi, Jennifer Orme-Zavaleta, Konrad Otto-Zimmermann, Martin Parry, Nikkita Patel, Jonathan Patz, Olga Pilifosova, Hugh Pitcher, Roberto Quiroz, Paul Raskin, William Rees, Phil Rossingol, Chris Roythorne, Jeffrey Sachs, Osman Sankoh, Henk van Schaik, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Roland Schulze, Joel Schwartz, Jeffrey Shaman, Richard Shanks, Gelila Terrefe, Rick Thomas, Margaret Thomsen, Ricardo Thompson, Michael Totten, Mathis Wackernagel, David Waltner-Toews, Cameron Wake, Richard Walsh, Martin Whittaker, Mary Wilson, George M. Woodwell, Ginny Worrest, Robert Worrest, Durwood Zaelke Swiss Re Centre for Global Dialogue: The Centre for Global Dialogue is Swiss Re’s forum to deal with global risk issues and facilitates new insight into future risk markets. It supports stakeholder and networking activities for Swiss Re and their clients. Climate Change Futures was supported and realized with the help of the Business Development unit of Swiss Re’s Centre for Global Dialogue. The full list of the Centre for Global Dialogue Executive Roundtable participants is appended. Additional financial support for the Climate Change Futures project was provided by: The John Merck Fund Disclaimer: This report was produced by the Center for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard Medical School and does not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors. November 2005 Second Printing: September 2006
Page 1: Climate Change Futures Health, Ecol
Page 5 and 6: PREAMBLE Hurricane Katrina 4 | PREA
Page 7 and 8: 6 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY With this in
Page 9 and 10: 8 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Other non-lin
Page 11 and 12: THE CASE STUDIES IN BRIEF Floods in
Page 13 and 14: 12 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THE CCF PROJ
Page 16 and 17: PART I: The Climate Context Today
Page 18 and 19: (see McCarthy et al. 2001). As glac
Page 20 and 21: Table 1.1 Extreme Weather Events an
Page 22 and 23: DISCONTINUITIES CLIVAR, Climate Var
Page 24 and 25: Figure 1.6 The Frequency of Weather
Page 26 and 27: Figure 1.7 Trends in Events, Losses
Page 28 and 29: • Thawing of permafrost (permanen
Page 30 and 31: CCF-II: GRADUAL WARMING WITH INCREA
Page 32 and 33: PART II: Case Studies
Page 34 and 35: CLIMATE CHANGE AND EMERGING INFECTI
Page 36 and 37: HEALTH IMPACTS Malaria is character
Page 38 and 39: Figure 2.5 Brazil N Brazil COLOMBIA
Page 40 and 41: estimates (over and above current a
Page 42 and 43: SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS Preventing
Page 44 and 45: 262 deaths in 2003; 7,470 cases and
Page 46 and 47: 98% of the two-year life cycle take
Page 48 and 49: The rise in minimum temperature res
Page 50 and 51: While the role of allergen exposure
Page 52 and 53:
AIR QUALITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ISSU
Page 54 and 55:
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS 1984 and 199
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HEALTH AND ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS Heat
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Figure 2.20 Projected Excess Deaths
Page 60 and 61:
THE ROLE OF CLIMATE Australia exper
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Service). Since 2002, severe floods
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Table 2.1 Economic Losses in Europe
Page 66 and 67:
NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS adelgid
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created unstable conditions conduci
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Climate research has already identi
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LOSSES ASSOCIATED WITH 1993 HEAVY P
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Figure 2.28 Soybean Rust Introducti
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Table 2.3 Extreme Weather Events Ca
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General measures to reduce the impa
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Physiological stresses on reef orga
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There are many questions concerning
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• Terminating practices that dest
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ecome contaminated with viruses and
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In 2001 the IPCC fully recognized t
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While seawater desalinization is cu
Page 92 and 93:
PART III: Financial Implications, S
Page 94 and 95:
Figure 3.1 Reinsurance Prices Are H
Page 96 and 97:
RISK SPREADING IN DEVELOPED AND DEV
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THE LIMITS OF INSURABILITY Not all
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(also known as “cash-flow underwr
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from areas plagued by persistent dr
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Engagement of the insurance industr
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Industry observers point out that p
Page 108 and 109:
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Jus
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FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS Regulators an
Page 112 and 113:
of carbon-risk hedging products, su
Page 114 and 115:
Summary Table of Extreme Weather Ev
Page 116 and 117:
Table B.1 Summer Percentage Frequen
Page 118 and 119:
Climate sensitivity for small-scale
Page 120 and 121:
diffuse and do not manifest in sing
Page 122 and 123:
APPENDIX D. LIST OF PARTICIPANTS AT
Page 124:
Carmenza Robledo Gruppe Oekologie E
Page 127 and 128:
126 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Bibliography AAA
Page 129 and 130:
128 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Chordas, L. Epid
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Ford, S.E. & Tripp, M.R. Diseases a
Page 133 and 134:
132 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Kalkstein, L. S.
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134 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Mills, E. The in
Page 137 and 138:
136 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Rose, J. B., Eps
Page 139 and 140:
138 | BIBLIOGRAPHY Vandyk, J. K., B
Page 142:
Infectious and Respiratory Diseases
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