Metrobus Transit Study.pdf - City of St. John's

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St. John’s Transportation Commission (Metrobus) 2011 Market Assessment and Strategic Directions Study – Part B: The Past and Present – Understanding Ridership Trends occurred in St. John’s has been low density and not transit supportive. Mount Pearl is almost fully built out with only 4 percent of land zoned residential available for future development (Unpublished Newfoundland and Labrador Department of Municipal Affairs Report, 2009). St. John’s is also proposing to amend the Regional Policy Plan to allow for development above the 190 metres contour elevation. Removal of this policy restriction would open up an additional 290 hectares of developable land in the Southlands area and 200 hectares in the Southwest Development Area. A recent review of the St. John’s Agricultural Development Area by the Provincial government is also recommending that 567 hectares of agricultural land be made available for urban development, including 443 hectares in Portugal Cove – St. Philip’s near Windsor Lake (Newfoundland and Labrador Department of Natural Resources, 2009). Residential expansion is expected to continue in the rapidly growing Town of Paradise. Major growth is anticipated around Adams Pond and adjacent to Octagon Pond. Development is comprised of large lot, low density districts with local commercial uses. However, land is set aside for higher density development and will be developed according to market conditions. Overall, almost 6,000 residential units are expected in Paradise, while almost 5,000 residential units are expected in Conception Bay South. Big box retail development (40 hectares) and light industrial use (16 hectares) are also expected in Conception Bay South. (Unpublished Newfoundland and Labrador Department of Municipal Affairs Report, 2009). Overall, there is a general oversupply of land planned for and potentially available for residential development even though most (75 percent) residential development is expected to be single detached. There is, however, a need for more employment uses and a new business park in the range of 200 hectares (Unpublished Newfoundland and Labrador Department of Municipal Affairs Report, 2009). To address overall servicing needs, many provinces in Canada have developed growth plans to guide Official / Development Plans in each municipality. In Ontario, the provincial government developed a ‘Places to Grow’ growth plan. One of the keys to this plan is a 40 percent intensification target. This means that all municipalities must ensure that 40 percent of new development occurs in existing built-up areas (intensification) as opposed to greenfield development. This initiative helps support the effective delivery of services, including transit. Public transit service should be proactive in servicing future development areas. Most of the areas identified for development in St. John’s are currently served by transit, however coverage and service levels may need to be increased. Paradise currently does not have transit service, and a previous transit study commissioned by the Town identified some need for service but concluded that if would not be cost effective. Clearly, a regional transit strategy will be required to address ridership growth opportunities in the greater St. John’s area. 6.4 Demographic Characteristics Aging Population St. John’s population profile has been aging over the past 20 years. Levels of natural population increase in the region are declining due to decreasing fertility rates, the aging of the population overall, and particularly the aging of the “baby boomers” beyond the childbearing years. It is important to understand that the amount and type of housing occurring in the region is directly dependent on the age structure. An older population is generally characterized by smaller households as “empty nesters” are formed when the offspring move out. Labour force participation Dillon Consulting Limited Page 34
St. John’s Transportation Commission (Metrobus) 2011 Market Assessment and Strategic Directions Study – Part B: The Past and Present – Understanding Ridership Trends in an aging society is lower as the labour force is generally comprised of the 20 to 60 year old population. The senior population tends to be more dependent on transit than other age groups and requires different services, forms of service delivery, and levels of service. It is important for Metrobus to fully understand the needs of this age group and proactively cater to them. Household Formation versus Population Growth Household formation in St. John’s is occurring at a faster rate than population growth. This means that the number of occupants per household is getting smaller. This is a result of two factors: An older population creates more households than a younger population as ‘empty nest’ and single person households increase dramatically; and The declining birthrate reduces the number of children per household. A third factor is the growth in prosperity in recent years in Northeast Avalon. In periods of prosperity more young people tend to move out of their family home and many have moved to peripheral locations where the cost of housing is less expensive. This trend contributes to transit ridership decline. Birthrate The birthrate in St. John’s has been decreasing. Students are a big part of transit ridership as they often have no other means of getting to/from school. The declining number of school aged children is contributing to Metrobus’ ridership decline. 6.5 Factors Influencing Auto Ownership and Use Auto Ownership Auto use is inversely proportional to transit ridership. Generally, in times of economic prosperity auto use tends to increase and St. John’s recent economic boom as a result of the oil industry is reflected in increased auto use. According to a recent issue of Moneysense Magazine, St. John’s ranks sixth in the percentage of new cars on the road out of 178 communities in Canada. This is ahead of Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, and Montreal, the major centres of population in Canada. Since 2007, it can be inferred that more residents are able to own and operate cars and that this trend has had a negative impact on Metrobus ridership. According to the CUTA Transit Vision 2040 report, transit fares are increasingly expensive compared to automobile use. Transit fares in Canada have been rising faster than inflation and have increased by 25 percent in real terms over the past decade. Parking Supply and Price The St. John’s Downtown Development Commission completed a Downtown Parking Study in 2009 that analysed the existing parking supply and pricing and outlined a Parking Management Plan based on Downtown growth and anticipated parking demand. This report found that on weekdays, on-street parking utilization peaks at 80 percent while off-street parking utilization peaks at 61 percent. On street utilization is 100 percent on the west side of Downtown during the weekday peak. This analysis indicates that on street parking is well used throughout the Downtown area with some capacity available on the east and in off street facilities/lots. On weekends there is ample Dillon Consulting Limited Page 35
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APPENDIX A Online Questionnaire Sam
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Transit Use 1. Have you used Metrob
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3. Which of the following, if any,
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Transit Users 1. How long have you
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Transit Users 1. In the past 12 mon
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6. What is your primary purpose for
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2007 Service Change 1. Did you ride
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Contact Information 1. Please fill
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4. How many vehicles are available
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Metrobus Market Study and Strategic
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APPENDIX B CNA Student Survey and R
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Student Profile/Transit Use 1. Are
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Non Transit Users Off Campus 1. How
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Non Transit Users On Campus 1. What
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3. How do you normally pay for your
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Transit Users 1. What other trips d
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Universal Student Transit Pass One
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Introduction Metrobus is evaluating
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Student Profile/Transit Use 1. What
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Non Transit Users Off Campus 1. How
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Non Transit Users On Campus 1. What
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3. How do you normally pay for your
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Transit Users 1. What other trips d
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Universal Student Transit Pass One
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Introduction Metrobus is evaluating
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2. Main type of business activity:
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Relationship to Transit 1. Does you
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8. Would you CONSIDER participating
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Survey Completion Thank you for you
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APPENDIX E Onboard Passenger Survey
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Tell us about yourself and your tra
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APPENDIX F Peer Review Municipaliti
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APPENDIX G Off-Street Terminal Desi
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Metrobus Transit Study.pdf - City of St. John's

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