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V. Forecast
1. General Business Conditions in the next two Financial Years
Economic growth likely to slow
The global economic climate darkened discernibly at year-end 2007, above all in the wake of the
US subprime crisis. There is currently no end in sight to the crisis precipitated on the financial markets,
which is likely to hamper the development of the real economy of the industrial nations. In the view of
economic experts, the global economy is set to distinctly lose momentum in the current year. The
industrial nations are likely to see real GDP climb discernibly more slowly than production potential
would otherwise let it. In the emerging countries, economic momentum will probably slow somewhat,
but the increase in production will remain high in a historical comparison. The International Monetary
Fund has lowered its most recent forecast for global growth in 2008 by 0.7 percentage points to
4.1%. This would mean that the global economy would nonetheless develop above its median trend
for the fifth year in a row. From today’s standpoint, growth in 2009 can be anticipated in the same
dimensions. The global economy is therefore still in its most powerful upswing since the 50’s.
The EU countries are likely to be confronted with tighter lending markets, growth in the US,
which is much weaker than previously anticipated, and currency exchange relations which place a
burden on exports. The expected loss in the impetus of corporate investments is, however, likely to be
at least partly compensated by higher consumer spending, bolstered by the still positive development
on the labor market. In 2008 as well, the EU will retain its growth lead in comparison with the other
two regions of the Triad (USA, Japan). Germany has a sound basis for continuing its satisfying development
this year and in the year to come: Capacity utilization, still recently in an uptrend, indicates
that corporate investments are likely to grow. In addition, rising employment levels achieved in the
labor market form the foundation for a recovery in private consumption. Growth momentum could,
on the one hand, be dented by a serious slowdown in the US economy and, on the other, by the euro
continuing to appreciate. Moreover, the boom in capital investment may well falter owing to the
expiry of favorable impairment options at year-end 2007. The figures forecasted for German GDP
growth by a number of economic research institutions range between 1.7% and 1.9% (2008) and
1.5% and 2.0% (2009).