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GDP Germany: Forecast Range 2008/2009
3.0
2.5
2.0
% 1.5
1.0
0.5
0
GDP y/y change
A Group Management Report and Management Report on Salzgitter AG V. Forecast 176 177
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008f 2009f
Steel market to return to normal levels
In 2008, the capacity utilization of steel producers is set to remain high: The growth in crude steel
production is likely to slow only marginally to 6.5%, which would correspond to a global production of
1.43 billion tons. Similar to 2007, the production of crude steel is likely to expand in almost all regions.
Within the EU, especially in Germany, considerable further growth cannot be anticipated as the level
of capacity utilization achieved is already high.
With regard to market supply, sharp increases are expected in most regions. As a result of the
correction process in inventories, we expect an inventory downtrend in the EU. However, the market
volume will not decrease significantly from its very high level due to the growing need for steel. In
Germany, we believe that a slight growth in market supply of almost 1% is possible, a theory underpinned
by a somewhat more favorable balance between supply and demand than in the other
EU member countries and an unchanged positive forecast for Germany’s steel processing sectors.
Steel tubes market still expanding
The global economic conditions of the next two years are likely to continue to favor the development
of the steel tubes market. The need for energy, rising all over the world, the increasing number of
pipeline projects, the expansion of power plant construction activities and the stable European automotive
industry represent sound growth opportunities for the steel tubes business.
According to the most recent study conducted in November 2007 by the international energy agency
“World Energy Outlook 2007”, the global energy demand is set to expand through to 2030. As the
next chart illustrates, demand is building steadily and is already impacting 2008 and 2009. Naturally it
is questionable to what degree this type of scenario can at all take the momentum of ecologically
driven measures into account.
Source: HWWI, ifo,
IfW, December 2007
(f: forecast)
Forecast