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Power Plant Capacity Trend
GW
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
3,700 GW
A Group Management Report and Management Report on Salzgitter AG V. Forecast 180 181
New capacity = 3,600 GW
Replaced capacity = 1,200 GW
Available capacity
2002 2010 2020 2030
7,300 GW
New +
replaced
capacity
= 4,800 GW
2,500 GW
There are also a number of risks, however, which are counteracting the factors driving global demand
for steel tubes. To begin with, it is not yet possible to estimate the full effect of the crisis in the financial
markets.
In addition, reference must be made to the fact that prices for raw materials, energy and freight
costs may well rise again. Moreover, the global expansion in tubes production capacities, which total
some 11 million tons in 2008 and 7 million tons in 2009, will be looking for a market, and only if
growth keeps pace will it not influence pricing. In addition, the global consolidation of the tubes
sector will continue.
Finally, there is evidence to suggest that the aforementioned conflicts affecting trading policies may
escalate and cause further turbulence in international trade flows.
For EU producers with larger parts of their business in the dollar region, the considerably higher
exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar will be an additional factor.
Especially in view of high order levels, the Tubes Division views the new financial year with a certain
measure of optimism.
Source: International
Energy Agency
Forecast