Daimler Annual Report 2011 - Alle jaarverslagen

3 | Management Report | Outlook
Outlook
The statements made in the Outlook chapter are generally
based on the operational planning of Daimler AG as approved
by the Board of Management and Supervisory Board in
December 2011 for the years 2012 and 2013. This planning is
based on premises regarding the economic situation, which
are derived from assessments made by renowned economic
institutions, and on the targets set by our divisions. The
prospects for our future business development as presented
here reflect the opportunities and risks offered by anticipated
market conditions and the competitive situation. We are constantly
adjusting our expectations, taking into account the
latest forecasts on the development of the world economy and
of automotive markets, as well as our recent business development.
The statements made below are based on the knowledge
available to us in February 2012.
World economy
At the beginning of the year 2012, although the world
economy is generally still on a growth path, its rate of growth
has decreased significantly compared with the prior year.
While the emerging markets are likely to make another solid
contribution to global growth in 2012, uncertainty exists in
particular with regard to the unstable situation in the industrial
countries. The focus here is certainly on the further development
of the European currency union. In view of the sovereigndebt
crisis, the required consolidation actions and the
economic slowdown now apparent, total economic output in
the euro zone will probably decrease slightly this year. The
available early indicators and tension in the financial markets
certainly give cause for concern that economic developments
could actually turn out to be significantly worse. The
key issue is still to find a sustained resolution of the debt
crisis that also satisfies the financial markets. Against this
backdrop, the prospects for domestic demand in Europe are
rather modest. With the exception of Germany, unemployment
rates will remain high and there will be no significant stimulus
from income developments. Private consumption is therefore
unlikely to rise appreciably. Due to weak demand and underutilized
production capacities in some industries, expectations
on the investment side are also rather restrained. The
German economy cannot escape from this development and
will also lose a lot of its dynamism. Nonetheless, gross
domestic product in Germany should increase again in real
terms. The economic outlook for the United States at the
beginning of the year is significantly more favorable than for
the euro zone. In recent weeks, early indicators have suggested
that the US economy has avoided a renewed recession
and is now on a path of moderate growth. But with forecasts
of GDP growth of approximately 2%, the US economy will be too
weak to have a significantly positive impact on the country’s
very high unemployment. An additional point to consider is that
the United States, despite its substantial debt problems, has
so far not initiated a convincing program of budget consolidation.
In Japan, however, reconstruction efforts following the natural
disaster are providing some growth stimulus; but the massive
appreciation of the yen is a considerable burden for Japanese
industry. Overall, the economic output of the industrial countries
is likely to expand by slightly more than 1% this year,
which is significantly below the long-term trend. With growth
patterns similar to those of the prior year, the emerging markets
could achieve an increase of approximately 5% and thus
grow much faster than the industrialized countries, so we
will continue to have a two-speed world economy. Due to the
enormous increase in its global importance, the economic
development of China will be crucial. The country’s growth
is obviously decelerating, but according to all forecasts,
GDP expansion of approximately 8% should be feasible. Solid
growth rates are also expected for the other regions such as
Eastern Europe and Latin America this year. In total therefore,
global economic output could expand by approximately 2.5%
in 2012, but sensitivity to external disturbances remains very
high.
With regard to the currencies important for our business, we
continue to anticipate sharp exchange-rate fluctuations.
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