Daimler Annual Report 2011 - Alle jaarverslagen

Automotive markets
According to current estimates, worldwide markets for motor
vehicles should continue to grow this year, with the exception of
the Western European market, which is increasingly affected
by the debt crisis. Global registrations of new cars are likely to
increase by approximately 4%, whereby the growth will primar ­
ily be driven by the Asian emerging markets, the US market and
the Japanese market, which will benefit from catch-up effects.
In the United States, demand for cars should continue to
recover due to the ongoing need to r eplace old vehicles, probably
growing by a high single-digit percentage. Thanks to
pent-up demand and the return of government subsidies for
particularly fuel-efficient cars, the Japanese market should
actually expand at a double-digit rate following the disasterrelated
slump in 2011. But in Western Europe, a weak market
development with a further significant drop in demand is to be
expected once again due to the debt crisis and the worsened
economic outlook. The German market will not be able to escape
this trend and at best is likely to expand only slightly. In the
emerging markets, however, solid growth in demand can be
expected overall. The Chinese market should once again play
a dominant role with dynamic growth similar to the prior year.
In India, high growth rates are to be expected again after the
significant slowdown of last year. In Latin America, however,
another weakening of market growth is anticipated. And only
a small increase in new car registrations is likely in Eastern
Europe. Following the end of state scrappage incentives
in Russia, demand in that market is expected to grow only
moderately.
Worldwide demand for medium and heavy trucks in 2012 is
expected to be at least at the level of last year. Despite a perceptible
growth slowdown, the North American market should
prove to be the world’s most important driver of demand,
expanding by 15 to 20%. Above all in the United States, the
continuing robust growth of investment and the increasing
need for replacements due to the relatively old fleet of
vehicles should allow strong growth in demand once again.
However, demand for trucks in Europe will be impacted by
the ongoing sovereign-debt crisis and the resulting economic
weakness. So at best, demand in that market can only be expected
to be about as strong as last year. Market contraction
of up to 10% is not impossible from today’s perspective, but
we foresee a better development in the second half of the
year than in the first. But the Japanese market for heavy and
medium-duty trucks should expand once again by 5 to 10%
compared with the prior year, thanks to the country’s economic
growth, which is benefiting from the reconstruction efforts.
Overall demand for trucks in the emerging markets should
grow only moderately this year. In China, new registrations are
expected to normalize, after they had already fallen last year
due to the end of state incentives for truck buyers. Demand in
India is likely to stabilize. The Brazilian market, which is
important to Daimler, will probably experience a drop in demand
of between 10 and 15% following the introduction of more
stringent emission regulations (similar to Euro V). In Russia,
growth rates should be significantly more moderate than in
the past two years.
We expect the European van market to contract slightly due
to the debt crisis and its impact on the economy. This is
primarily due to the weakness of markets in Southern Europe,
while demand for vans in the other European markets is
expected to remain stable or even to grow slightly. Following
the very positive development of the market for large vans in
the United States in 2011, we anticipate renewed significant
growth in 2012. The Chinese market for medium and large
vans should also expand again, and we foresee further market
growth also in Latin America.
We expect a stable development of bus markets in Europe
this year. In view of the uncertain economic situation, the market
is likely to remain at the relatively low level of 2011. In Latin
America, we assume that demand will decrease in connection
with the introduction of new emission standards.
Independently of economic developments in our markets, the
regional distribution of demand has shifted significantly in
recent years. The importance of the emerging markets has
increased enormously not only for the industry as a whole,
but especially for manufacturers of premium vehicles, and the
trend is likely to continue in the coming years. This creates
great challenges for the industry regarding production sites
and flexibility, as well as the requirements of differing customers
in a global market. Another factor is the continuing
and increasing need to invest in fuel-efficient and future-oriented
technologies and to develop and supply innovative and
sustainable mobility and transport solutions. The companies
that meet these challenges and make active use of these fundamental
changes will have excellent growth prospects also
in the future. But ultimately, the ability to stand out from the
competition with innovations, exciting products and strong
brands will be an increasingly important factor for success.
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