Kingscote Airport Business Case - Kangaroo Island Council - SA ...

Kangaroo Island Airport Upgrade Business Case
5.2 Forecast passenger numbers
Tourism on Kangaroo Island will continue to grow into the future. Strong historical
trend data and the Island’s strategic importance at both a Commonwealth and State
Government level imply that this will almost certainly be the case. This growth, in
combination with an upgrade of airport facilities and other supporting strategies
(marketing, booking arrangements and other promotions - section 9.4 and 9.5),
provides enormous potential for not only a reversal in air passenger trends but a return
to volumes above the levels seen in 1999 where 90,000 air passenger movements
occurred.
An upgrade of Kangaroo Island airport with supporting strategies would unlock tourism
potential and more specifically would be more likely to result in a material increase in
airline passenger numbers. As mentioned earlier in project need (section 4) an
upgrade would:
• support the Commonwealth and State Government strategies of boosting tourism
activity on Kangaroo Island;
• allow direct access from interstate airports – Melbourne, Sydney and Perth;
• assist Kangaroo Island convert ‘consideration to visitation’ 23
access;
through ease of
• support demand from private passenger jets with higher tyre pressure for ‘highvalue
tourism’;
• increase the amenities for air travel passengers;
• ‘Future proof’ the airport such that it can accommodate changes to aircraft type in
the future and provide security screening for passengers on larger aircraft; and
• provide the ability to accommodate refuelling if future (longer) routes require this.
5.2.1 Pacific Aviation Consulting
Pacific Aviation Consulting (PAC) 24 recently conducted an assessment of likely future
air passenger demand at Kangaroo Island Airport, see Appendix A. PAC’s modelling
has assumed that Kangaroo Island can continue its strong performance in visitor
growth, and turn around the decline in air passenger demand.
To forecast total air visitor movements over the next 20 years, PAC first considered
total visitor movements (by all modes of access) and then considered what proportion
of total visitor movements would likely travel by air (share of total visitor movements).
Total visitor to Kangaroo Island
PAC has assumed visitor growth under a variety of scenarios, using a
‘low‐medium‐high’ scenario set:
• Low-growth scenario: PAC considered low-growth to be between 1.1-1.3% per year
between 2012 and 2030. This was based on Tourism Forecasting Committee
forecast growth and the origins of Kangaroo Island’s visitor mix, provided by SATC.
23 BDA Marketing Planning found that interstate consideration for Kangaroo Island was high (15%) when
compared to other Australian regional areas.
24 Pacific Aviation Consulting Pty Ltd is a specialist management consultancy with a focus on the aviation
industry.
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May 2013