Kingscote Airport Business Case - Kangaroo Island Council - SA ...
Kingscote Airport Business Case - Kangaroo Island Council - SA ...
Kingscote Airport Business Case - Kangaroo Island Council - SA ...
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<strong>Kangaroo</strong> <strong>Island</strong> <strong>Airport</strong> Upgrade <strong>Business</strong> <strong>Case</strong><br />
average 2005/07). 27 The recent tourist market for Broome has been slightly less<br />
buoyant with the average annual visitors to Broome Shire in 2009/10/11 being 209,600<br />
with estimated visitor nights of 1,244,400. 28<br />
It is not anticipated that the upgrade of the <strong>Kangaroo</strong> <strong>Island</strong> airport will have as strong<br />
an impact as the Broome experience, given the current subdued tourism outlook, the<br />
influence of mining and the greater dependence of Broome on air transport. However,<br />
the upgrade of the <strong>Kangaroo</strong> <strong>Island</strong> airport, similar to parts of the Broome experience,<br />
will encourage air passengers from other Australian capital cities and is likely to have a<br />
positive impact on air travel visitor numbers to <strong>Kangaroo</strong> <strong>Island</strong>.<br />
5.4 Market demand summary and its impact on financial estimates<br />
Market demand analysis suggests that growth in visitation numbers to <strong>Kangaroo</strong> <strong>Island</strong><br />
is likely to continue and an upgrade of <strong>Kangaroo</strong> <strong>Island</strong> airport would likely see a<br />
conservative increase in the proportion of airline travellers. Moreover, consideration of<br />
the <strong>Island</strong>’s strategic importance to Tourism Australia only further supports the<br />
suggestion that visitation will increase.<br />
PAC used in their future modelling of visitor numbers, the compound annual growth<br />
between 2001 and 2011, which was in the order 2.9%. Market demand analysis<br />
reveals nothing to suggest that this level of growth in visitor numbers to <strong>Kangaroo</strong><br />
<strong>Island</strong> would not continue.<br />
An upgrade of the <strong>Kangaroo</strong> <strong>Island</strong> airport, similar to the Uluru experience, is likely to<br />
have a positive impact on both visitor numbers and air travel to <strong>Kangaroo</strong> <strong>Island</strong>.<br />
The medium-growth scenario of air travel passengers considered to be appropriate by<br />
PAC could therefore be considered a reasonable assumption.<br />
5.4.1 Impact on financial analysis<br />
Financial analysis undertaken by <strong>Kangaroo</strong> <strong>Island</strong> <strong>Council</strong> (see Section 7) - like the<br />
PAC modelling considers total visitation to <strong>Kangaroo</strong> <strong>Island</strong> as well as demand for air<br />
travel services to determine anticipated passenger numbers.<br />
The following figure shows the overall forecast air passenger numbers considered in<br />
the PAC model against those in the financial model undertaken by the <strong>Kangaroo</strong> <strong>Island</strong><br />
<strong>Council</strong>. The <strong>Council</strong> model uses the same estimates over the initial 10 years, after<br />
which time its estimates are more conservative. Year 8-9 in both models see forecast<br />
passenger numbers reach the former historical peak air passenger numbers<br />
(approximately 90,000 air passenger movements).<br />
27 Tourism WA, 2007, Local Government Area Fact Sheet – Shire of Broome 2007. Accessed at<br />
<br />
28 Tourism WA, 2011, Shire of Broome – Overnight visitor fact sheet. Accessed at<br />
<br />
40<br />
May 2013