Kingscote Airport Business Case - Kangaroo Island Council - SA ...

Kangaroo Island Airport Upgrade Business Case
Figure 16: Passengers at Kangaroo Island airport (medium visitor growth scenario), 2001 - 2030
Source: PAC
Conclusions of PAC modelling
PAC consider a scenario of medium growth in total visitor numbers (2.9% compound
annual growth between 2012-2030) and medium growth in total proportion of visitors
travelling by air (12% to 30% of total visitor movements by 2030) to form the basis of
assessments of likely demand for future air services. This is represented by the
‘medium’ forecast in Figure 16.
From this ‘medium’ forecast, PAC has assessed the likely demand for air services
based on aircraft currently and likely to be in operation, both under monopoly operator
as well as competitive entry scenarios. It found that there will be likely demand for a 70-
seater operator (i.e. ATR 72) by 2018-2019, either as a competitor to existing services
to Adelaide or with a new service to Melbourne 25 . The following figure depicts the
potential air travel demand from Melbourne.
Figure 17: Forecast demand from Melbourne, 2012-2030
Thousands of air passengers
250
200
Medium
150
100
50
Melbourne
0
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
PAC suggest that based on the modelling and other background information, Kangaroo
Island faces a critical infrastructure ‘crunch’ in the next five to ten years. PAC notes
that the incumbent operator is likely to consider airframe replacement for Saab 340
25 It is possible that new services to Sydney / Perth would also be possible, however the Melbourne
service has been considered in the following analysis as more likely due to existing Q400 aircraft coming
from Melbourne to Adelaide and Port Lincoln.
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May 2013