Kingscote Airport Business Case - Kangaroo Island Council - SA ...

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Kangaroo Island Airport Upgrade Business Case average 2005/07). 27 The recent tourist market for Broome has been slightly less buoyant with the average annual visitors to Broome Shire in 2009/10/11 being 209,600 with estimated visitor nights of 1,244,400. 28 It is not anticipated that the upgrade of the Kangaroo Island airport will have as strong an impact as the Broome experience, given the current subdued tourism outlook, the influence of mining and the greater dependence of Broome on air transport. However, the upgrade of the Kangaroo Island airport, similar to parts of the Broome experience, will encourage air passengers from other Australian capital cities and is likely to have a positive impact on air travel visitor numbers to Kangaroo Island. 5.4 Market demand summary and its impact on financial estimates Market demand analysis suggests that growth in visitation numbers to Kangaroo Island is likely to continue and an upgrade of Kangaroo Island airport would likely see a conservative increase in the proportion of airline travellers. Moreover, consideration of the Island’s strategic importance to Tourism Australia only further supports the suggestion that visitation will increase. PAC used in their future modelling of visitor numbers, the compound annual growth between 2001 and 2011, which was in the order 2.9%. Market demand analysis reveals nothing to suggest that this level of growth in visitor numbers to Kangaroo Island would not continue. An upgrade of the Kangaroo Island airport, similar to the Uluru experience, is likely to have a positive impact on both visitor numbers and air travel to Kangaroo Island. The medium-growth scenario of air travel passengers considered to be appropriate by PAC could therefore be considered a reasonable assumption. 5.4.1 Impact on financial analysis Financial analysis undertaken by Kangaroo Island Council (see Section 7) - like the PAC modelling considers total visitation to Kangaroo Island as well as demand for air travel services to determine anticipated passenger numbers. The following figure shows the overall forecast air passenger numbers considered in the PAC model against those in the financial model undertaken by the Kangaroo Island Council. The Council model uses the same estimates over the initial 10 years, after which time its estimates are more conservative. Year 8-9 in both models see forecast passenger numbers reach the former historical peak air passenger numbers (approximately 90,000 air passenger movements). 27 Tourism WA, 2007, Local Government Area Fact Sheet – Shire of Broome 2007. Accessed at 28 Tourism WA, 2011, Shire of Broome – Overnight visitor fact sheet. Accessed at 40 May 2013
Kangaroo Island Airport Upgrade Business Case Figure 20: Forecast airline passenger numbers in PAC and Kangaroo Island Council demand models Note: Model results are considered from year 2 as the beginning year (year 1) of the PAC model and Council model differ due to the PAC model being undertaken one year prior to Council model development. Source: Pacific Aviation Consulting, 2012; Kangaroo Island Council, 2013. Figure 21, isolates the air passenger movements as proposed in the Council’s financial analysis and shows how a turnaround in air passenger numbers is assumed. Figure 21: Air passenger movements as proposed in Kangaroo Island Council financial analysis Source: SATC; Kangaroo Island Council May 2013 41
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