Kingscote Airport Business Case - Kangaroo Island Council - SA ...
Kingscote Airport Business Case - Kangaroo Island Council - SA ...
Kingscote Airport Business Case - Kangaroo Island Council - SA ...
You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles
YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.
<strong>Kangaroo</strong> <strong>Island</strong> <strong>Airport</strong> Upgrade <strong>Business</strong> <strong>Case</strong><br />
• Medium-growth scenario: PAC has assumed a continuation of the visitor demand it<br />
observed between 2001 and 2011 - a compound annual growth rate of 2.9%<br />
between 2012-2030. This scenario sees visitor demand to <strong>Kangaroo</strong> <strong>Island</strong><br />
increase to 250,000 visitors by 2021, and to 300,000 visitors by 2027. This scenario<br />
was used in further modelling.<br />
• High‐growth scenario: Australian domestic passenger growth for the past 10 years<br />
has shown a compound annual growth rate of 5.2%. A high-growth scenario would<br />
see growth rising from the current 2.9% p.a. to 5.2% p.a. by 2020, and returning to<br />
2.9% by 2030.<br />
Figure 15: Forecast visitors to <strong>Kangaroo</strong> <strong>Island</strong>, 2001 - 2030<br />
Source: PAC<br />
Total visitor movements by air<br />
PAC has assumed air passenger growth under a variety of scenarios, using a<br />
‘low‐medium‐high’ scenario set:<br />
• Low–growth scenario: maintain air travel’s current proportion of total visitor<br />
movements – 12%.<br />
• Medium-growth scenario: a recovery in air travel demand from 12% to 30% of total<br />
visitor movements by 2030.<br />
• High-growth scenario: a rise in air travel demand to 50% of total visitor movements<br />
by 2030; a proportion observed at King <strong>Island</strong>, Lord Howe <strong>Island</strong> and Norfolk<br />
<strong>Island</strong>.<br />
Figure 16 below shows the three air travel demand scenarios under the medium growth<br />
scenario for total visitors to <strong>Kangaroo</strong> <strong>Island</strong> (Figure 15).<br />
May 2013<br />
33