CLIMATE ACTION PLAN - City of Urbana

2.3
EMISSIONS FORECAST
The Urbana Sustainability Advisory Commission chose to focus Urbana’s initial planning efforts on reducing emissions by
the year 2020. A forecast for 2020 emissions was developed using ICLEI’s CACP software. The projected 2020 emissions
are a business-as-usual forecast. The business-as-usual forecast is a depiction of the future consequences of continuing
current trends in population, economy, urban development, technology and human behavior with respect to energy
consumption. A business as usual forecast allows planners to estimate how emissions in the future might increase or
decrease, and therefore identify the most appropriate greenhouse gas reduction strategies to help the community
achieve its long-range emissions reductions goals. CACP allows for input of projected increases or decreases in various
factors over the planning horizon. The 2020 emissions projections were developed utilizing data from the same sources
used to develop the 2007 baseline and with growth rates developed by City staff and the Champaign County Regional
Planning Commission (CCRPC).
The projected figure is significantly higher than the 2007 baseline because as the population of the city grows, so does
energy consumption, both in the residential and commercial sectors.
TABLE 2. URBANA’S 2020 PROJECTED COMMUNITY GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY COMPARED
WITH THE 2007 BASELINE INVENTORY (IN METRIC TONS CO 2
EQUIVALENT) 1
Sector Quantity 2
2007 Baseline 2020 Projection
Residential energy used 135,900 153,100
Commercial energy used 156,200 184,300
Industrial energy used 118,100 149,700
Transportation energy used 110,400 118,100
Solid Waste disposed in landfills 28,100 33,600
Total 548,700 638,800
Non-Campus Population 3 34,100 42,500
Per Capita Greenhouse Gas Emissions 4 16 MT/Resident 15 MT/Resident
Notes:
1
Estimates were calculated using ICLEI’s CACP software.
2
Quantities have been rounded to the nearest hundred, except as noted.
3
The City of Urbana population figure is estimated from 2000 and 2010 Census Data. University of Illinois on-campus student resident
population is not included in calculating per capita emissions noted above.
4
Per-capita emissions 2007 have Baseline been and rounded 2020 Projected to the nearest Emissions whole Increase number. in a ‘Business as Usual’ Scenario
2020
+12.5% +12.8% +17.8% +17.9% +26.8% +26.6% +5.8% +13.3% +13.6%
110,100
43,000
152,000 32,300 114,500 35,200 97,900 20,200 20,100 33,500 33,600
Projected
increase
2007
97,800
38,100
129,000
27,400
90,300
27,800
92,600
17,700 28,000
Baseline
emissions
100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000
MT CO 2
e
Residential Residential Commercial Commercial Industrial Industrial
Electricity Gas Electricity Gas Electricity Gas
Gasoline Diesel Waste
Note: Figures are rounded to the nearest hundred and shown in MT CO 2
e
Figure 9. 2007 Baseline Emissions and Projected 2020 Increase in Emissions Under a Business As Usual Scenario by
Sector and Source
City of Urbana
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