CLIMATE ACTION PLAN - City of Urbana

4.4 APPENDIX F: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT AND TRANSPORTATION GROWTH PROJECTIONS FOR 2020
Forecasted Growth Projections for Climate Action Plan
Prepared by Bart Hagston
These projections are based upon data provided in a 6/6/11 memo from Andrew Levy at
CCRPC/CUUATS.
Population
CCRPC projects Urbana Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) population. TAZ population is larger than City of
Urbana. So I applied the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) I derived from CCRPC to the US Census
population data for Urbana.
CCRPC projects Urbana TAZ population for 2005 as 45,829 and 2015 population as 54,793 (1.8% CAGR
for 2005 - 2015). Population for 2025 projected at 60,288 (0.96% CAGR for 2015 – 2025).
US Census – Urbana city population in 2000 = 36,395. 2010 = 41,250 (1.26% CAGR for 2000 - 2010).
I applied the 1.26% CAGR to the 2000 Census population for the years 2000 – 2007 to get the 2007
population of 41,250. Since we are deducting 5,600 U of I student housing residents from the Urbana
CAP, that gives us a net population for the CAP of 34,129 (41,250-5,600).
To get the 2020 population I applied the 1.8% CAGR derived from CCRPC for the years 2007 – 2015 and
applied the 0.96% CAGR for 2016 – 2020. This resulted in a 2020 City population of 48,066. Minus the
5,6000 U of I student housing residents, left a net population for CAP planning purposes of 42,466.
Overall, the CAGR for 2007 – 2020 turns out to be 1.48%.
Employment
On page 2 of the CCRPC memo, he points out commercial and industrial employment numbers for 2007
and project numbers for 2020. I took the percent growth for that time period, as stated in the memo,
and broke it down into CAGR (as that is what is called for in the CACP inventory software). The CAGR for
commercial employment for 2007 – 2020 is 2.71% and for industrial employment for the same period it
is 1.84%.
VMT
On page 3 of the CCRPC memo, he points out that VMT between 2005 – 2015 is projected to increase at
3.02% CAGR. The CAGR for 2015 – 2025 is projected even higher. I simply used the 3.02% for the 2007
2020 planning period as I did not have high confidence in the even greater growth percentage projected
for 2015 -2025. The numbers provided are for the Urbana TAZ, not City of Urbana, although the growth
rates are assumed to be similar. Rod Fletcher had some hand-written notes from CUUATS that indicated
the VMT within Urbana city limits for 2005 was 179,200,000. So I applied the 3.02% CAGR to the 2005
VMT to get the miles for 2007 and the projected VMT for 2020 (280,002,035).
City of Urbana
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